Member Info for goldgnome

My take home..

1. Companies awarded concessions were Centamin... and Canadian companies B2Gold and Barrick Gold..all companies of high repute..the country is making good decisions....
2. Importantly, there was an opportunity to depart from the 50/50 share royalty agreement typical of the oil and gas investment in Egypt that is currently applied to Sukari.. free cash flow is important
3. Centamin reported interim net income of $74.8m, a 280% increase year-on-year...free cash flow is important
4. Endeavour Mining... was not named as a beneficiary of the exploration block awards in the Reuters article...the country is making good decisions.
5. Sawiris...“We are willing to participate in any area that could be promising,” and what else would he say?

The shortest discovery to mining time has to be Centamin with their in-country expertise. You just can't buy this in the market place in Cairo..you might buy the ODD individual (who has his own interest first, second, third) but its the champion team which will win the day...

best

the gnome

The Ampella buy was interesting and opened them up or business in Burkina Faso, and ... this led them into Cote Ivoire, where they have done very well in terms of discovery of JORC ounces. BUT failed to convert this into production.
Probably a good thing in retrospect as I have little faith in ElRaghy and Pardy mngt as miine developers in enw jurisdictions. So be interesting to see what the new CEO and mngt does. Doing nothing will not be an option.

best
the gnome

Dear Adam

The fat lady has to sing, and the new man has to produce more than rhetoric. Lets pretend he has been selcted for good reasons( the last guy got the job because he was around for a long time, (not because of skill, merit etc..clearly and stupidly).

So to state the obvious this is a transformational transition, where the old guys leave and the new guys seek to establish reputation. The CEO is young, I presume v capable, and wants a career and recognition (now and in the future). Over-promising and under-delivering, I suspect, is not attractive.

Under-promising and over delivering has a lot of merit. Watch this space, but I would and do, encourage, the new man, to build a future for himself and CEY shareholders. The last guys at the wheel were very unimpressive, ... the orebody and resources are very impressive.

West Africa has upside.

best
the Gnome

TROPICANA GOLD MINE (OZ) 30% UP FOR SALE.
Ownership:
AngloGold Ashanti Australia Ltd (70% and manager),
Independence Group NL (30%)
Mining: Conventional open cut and conventional mechanised
underground mining methods.
Processing: Crushing, high-pressure grinding, ball mills, CIL
Ore Reserve (100%)*: 65.7Mt grading 1.77g/t for 3.74Moz
of contained gold
Mineral Resource (100%)*: 136.2Mt grading 1.76g/t for 7.70Moz
of contained gold
produces about 450,000 oz per year, AISC about A$950/oz
IGO owns 30%, and the talk is that MARKET worth of othe order of A$1.5b....
So that outs a value of A$5b on the Total Mine....us$3.55b [So CEY at a nominal US$1.5b is a steal! but do your own research]
Street Talk can reveal IGO and its bankers at Macquarie Capital have started corralling potential buyers into a two-part auction, which is expected to span over the summer and could bring about a $1.5 billion windfall to the group and its shareholders.
Interested parties were told it was a unique chance to acquire an interest in a top five Australian gold mine, and buy into a joint venture that is 70 per cent owned by "world class mining partner" AngloGold Ashanti.

The bankers said Tropicana, which is located 300km north-east of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, was discovered in 2005 and started pouring gold in 2013 after its owners had spent north of $800 million to get it up and running.
Since then, it has turned into a reliable cash cow for IGO Ltd - so much so that the company (and some activist investors) reckon the market may not be fully appreciating just what it is worth.
https://www.igo.com.au/site/PDF/be1a62f8-1872-4ce0-a9a1-28caeab65851/TropicanaGoldMineSiteVisitPresentation

GET SET

best
the gnome

ps, first virus outbreak in S Oz for a long while, has seen W Oz make the S Oz do ALL do 14 days self quarantine....amazing what the people who have never worked a day in private industry {and would have trouble organising a chook raffle at the local?} can do to destroy an economy.

Interesting comments. It does sound like Doropo will get across the line a a development project, in Cote I'viore. Batie West, the problem is not grade and mine life, as they probbaly have a reosurce of 4 m ozs, but margin (strip ration, metallurgy) and capex. Like ot get a stronger and more articulate discussion, and not more of the one liners, like the previous CEO's.

Managiing a Sukari LOM optimisation and review, and a new development in a new jurisdiction as well as expanding exploration and development in Egypt requires top line, aligned management.

Hint to the new CEO. Underpromise and over deliver, consistently, but manage the balance.

the gnome

In Oz, we are opening up as corona virus covid 19 cases are very low. But elsewhere the news is not so good. Startling to see the news from Denmark "Denmark will cull all its mink - as many as 17 million - after a mutated form of coronavirus that can spread to humans was found on mink farms. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the mutated virus posed a "risk to the effectiveness" of a future Covid-19 vaccine."
"And continued spread of coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2) in mink farms may eventually give rise to other mutated strains, or variants, "of concern".
Further assessment was needed to assess whether mutated forms of the virus might hinder the effectiveness of treatments or vaccines, a new report concluded."

I think the virus and its derivatives will be around for a long time. "The history of human coronaviruses began in 1965 when Tyrrell and Bynoe1 found that they could passage a virus named B814. It was found in human embryonic tracheal organ cultures obtained from the respiratory tract of an adult with a common cold"
https://journals.lww.com/pidj/fulltext/2005/11001/history_and_recent_advances_in_coronavirus.12.aspx
Just hope the mass media become a bit more repsonsibale anfd factual with their reporting
best
the gnome

Thats a backward looking yield, not useful to calculate this. Dividend is paid as a % of profit, at the time the dividend is declared... Profit is a strong function of margin per ounce. You need to look at how CEY calculate its profit,

In general profits calculations are worth understanding, whats in whats out and how do companies perform. It will be interesting, to see if there are impairment charges or instance...how much... etc

https://www.pwc.com.au/assurance/ifrs/assets/spotlight-capital-and-dividends-achieving-a-sustainable-and-efficient-model.pdf

best
the gnome

Part of the endless game of consolidation, ... the consolidation will continue as it sthe only way you can grow a mid size comepny. The quantity and quality of discoveries is at an all time low, and not expected to get any better.

Interesting what would happen if all the power elites in Africa were put out of the gold smuggling trade. The gold leaks out illegally from numerous if not all countries, aided by the usual suspects
In November 2014, three people, a Belgian, a Canadian, and a Frenchmen, were caught with 77 kilos of gold. Members of a gold smuggling ring, they were trying to smuggle it out through the airport in their luggage !? ....Upon questioning, the gold seller found to be involved admitted that an average of two illegal export operations had been carried out each month for some time, with the traffickers carrying amounts of gold varying between 6 and 30 kg. (the old president had been dislodged and security at the airport had changed)
https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/30512/three-fraudsters-one-of-them-belgian-caught-with-77-kilos-of-gold-at-ouagadougou-airport/
According to Public Eye, a non-governmental organization (NGO), Switzerland imported at least 7 tonnes of gold from Togo in 2014 despite the fact that there are no gold mines in the country (???); this gold was traced back to artisanal mines in Burkina Faso. Many tonnes of gold produced by these mines (located mainly in the north and west of the country) are imported unlawfully into Togo each year, and this trafficking circuit alone deprives Burkina Faso of an estimated 3.5 billion CFA francs in tax revenues.

Artisanal production now reportedly amounts to almost half the volume of industrially produced gold: 20 to 50 tonnes per year in Mali, 10 to 30 tonnes in Burkina Faso, and 10 to 15 tonnes in Niger. This represents a total monetary value of between $1.9 and $4.5 billion per year. The bulk is exported to Dubai, which reports $1.9 billion in annual gold imports from these countries (plus Togo).
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/burkina-faso/282-reprendre-en-main-la-ruee-vers-lor-au-sahel-central

and then there is India...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Kerala_gold_smuggling_case#Background
Guyana, Brazil, Peru and on the list goes....

and Australia (hic, pass the bottle)...

the gnome

Yes Mr T, but of course Boris was not alone. Drinking is a national sport in Russia, Finland, Latvia (etc)

Disributive chaos of governments...but there is more....

lets add, endless litigation, corruption, incompetence, emotive spin, plain stupidity, lost ideolgies that have only worked in books ~150 years ago, worked fine between drinks
https://lordsofthedrinks.com/2014/11/06/karl-marx-the-drunkard-who-laid-the-foundation-for-communism/
and that have never worked in the real sober world for some peculiar reasons which escaped me and many others...

great entertainment,

Recount? Read audit, legal challenges...which will go on for a long time...

Bitcoin lobs a bit behind gold in terms of an independent currency/assett. Just sailed through us$15,000 as the shoot out at the O.K. Corral moves into full gear. This indicates gold has got a lot of legs in the next 6 months to 5 years!

https://coinmarketcap.com/

Hard to believe the amount of nonsense going on int he USA. Dead man winning a seat in N Dakota,
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/11/04/covid-candidate-north-dakota-election/
7k dead voters requested mail and ballot in one Michigan county. The election software system in Michigan that switched 6,000 votes from Trump to Biden is called "Dominion." It is used in 30 states including: ??Nevada ??Arizona ??Minnesota ??Michigan ??Wisconsin ??Georgia ??Pennsylvania.

And on the debacle goes.
https://thedonald.win/
Literally a laugh (or a gasp) a minute!

The results will be in the law courts for years to come. Interesting what is not being reported. Are the streets of New York really safe to walk down? What time of day? Muggings? Intimidation? Coercion? The mass hysteria (media) has hit new depths of despair. Fact checking (and censorship by the media) on the run. The polling process ..give us a break! Why are they consistently over-predictiing the ascendancy of the Democrats??

The governments will pass printing money bills ad nauseum, the value of the dollar can only be propped up, until it ultimately crashes. Time for another war on (T) error. Good time for investors, good time for China...

Hard to feel anything but contempt for a system so flawed

Good times for goldies.

best
the Gnome...beach, bunker, sense of humour

Looks like a good result for gold, short and long term. The value of money is going down, as the supply of money goes up, and producitivty earnt by that money gets lost in the distributive chaos of governments

best of luck all

the gnome

Rick Rule says Biden or Trump will be good for goldMining financier Rick Rule says the outlook for gold and precious metal equities remains bright in spite of a market sell-off last week that sparked a sharp drop in the price of the yellow metal. He also likes the long- term prospects for uranium...the gold sector remains in the early stages of a multi-year bull market.He says the likelihood that investors could face days of uncertainty as they wait for the U.S. election result does not change the outlook for gold, following a selloff last week that sent the yellow metal tumbling to US$1,868.20 an ounce – down 9% from a peak of US$2,070.05 in August 2020.“In baseball parlance, we are in a third inning of a game that likely goes to extra innings,” he said during a Skype interview. But he said that in addition to being cyclical, precious metal stocks are volatile, and when broad indexes fall, as they did last week, it can be unnerving to people who are not psychologically prepared to stay the course.Rule attributes the recent volatility in gold prices and gold stocks to a collision between a macro circumstance, which he says remains extremely positive for gold, and that many people feel confident that governments around the world can stickhandle the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.“There is also the fact that precious metals and precious metals stocks, after several false starts, have come so far so fast that I think a breather is at hand,” he said. Rule said anyone thinking of investing in the gold sector should avail themselves of a long-term gold equities index chart (he uses the Barron’s Gold Mining Index) to examine the anatomy of prior bull markets.He has been around long enough to recall that between 1970 and 1981, for example, the price of gold ran from US$35 an ounce to US$850 – a sign that bull markets can run for over a decade.Rule said his optimistic view on the outlook for gold is based on the policy response of governments around the world to the COVID pandemic, including rising government debt and artificially low interest rates, which he said are incredibly bullish for gold and gold stock.“With regards to the U.S. election, I think that either candidate will be good for gold,” he said. “I don’t see a dime’s worth of difference between the two in terms of their economic policy, which is to say they both favour quantitative easing. They both favour increased spending, and they are both willing to borrow as much as they are able to borrow, in order to accomplish that goal.”However, he conceded that a broad-based Democratic victory (which seemed on likely when this article was written) might be damaging in the near term to equity markets and precious metal equities...That’s because the Democratic Party’s economic platform goes beyond quantitative easing and negative interest rates to include things like wealth tax, an increased

Thats exacty what the other guy says!

Been a lot of very interesting studies about the relationship between gold and uncertainty.
How do we measure uncertainty? Is market volatility a proxy? If so which market? Which segment of the market and so on...

In these extraordinary times, of negative effective interest rates, loss of social license by the financial pillars of society, mayhem in the safe haven of the world (USA?), challenge by China to become the new leader of the free world, pandemic, mayem and discord in the medical profession, incompletence exposed in the political elites...it is fair to conclude we live in very uncertain times. How does gold stack up, when so much else stacks down.

One of many, do your own research, and remember there are major players who exert control on a small market, but in the end foth day the major players may like all major players...have had their day...and hea for the protection of chapter 11.
Brief revision: Chapter 11 is a form of bankruptcy that involves a reorganization of a debtor’s business affairs, debts, and assets, and for that reason is known as "reorganization" bankruptcy.? Named after the U.S. bankruptcy code 11, corporations generally file Chapter 11 if they require time to restructure their debts. This is part of the accepted US financial culture, so lets keep this in mind. It happens every day...in USA

? This version of bankruptcy gives the debtor a fresh start..

Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond
the mean ( Uinversity of Nebraska , Omaha)
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1806/1806.07623.pdf
Interestingly, we find a positive and strong relationship between gold returns and the
uncertainty composite indicator when the uncertainty attains its highest level and under
normal gold market scenario. This suggests that holding a diversified portfolio composed of
gold could help protecting against exposure to uncertain risks.
...
There is a limited strand of literature that seeks to investigate the effects of uncertainty
on gold price dynamics. All of them focus on individual uncertainty proxies. Jones and
Sackley (2016) investigated the dependence between gold price dynamics and the economic
policy uncertainty, and found that a great uncertainty leads to an increase in gold prices.
Likewise, Gao and Zang (2016) examined the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the
relationship between the UK stock market and gold market. They showed that uncertain
economic policies prompt a moderate correlation, while a strong correlation is associated with
certain economic policies. Balcilar et al. (2016) tested the role of economic, macroeconomic
and financial uncertainty in determining gold returns and volatility, and found that
macroeconomic and financial uncertainties play a vital role in explaining gold price dynamics.
...? whats normal?
good luck all
the gnome

No big margins here, and one suspects any and all margins will be challenged in each state (for several years). It does read like a complete schmozzle, and this is not a democracy at work. Its a dollarocracy at best (and us$ in destruction), because if you dont have a few $billion in your pocket you are not going to get even to the starting line, regardless of ideologies, gender, skin color, eye color etc. So lets not not be kidding ourselves.

North Dakota candidate, who died of Covid-19 last month, wins seat in state legislature.
A North Dakota man who died from the coronavirus last month won a seat in the state legislature, according to official results...something new?

One has to wonder about a system that throws these 2 magnificent specimens onto the stage, as being the best in the country. Either the process is compromised or the country is in serious decline (or both)
Nothing wrong with age, but either way the US will have the oldest President in its history, at arguably the highest crisis point in its history? Recipe for what?
Trumpts apparently in great health...its even in writing from his doctor.....“Mr. Trump, I can state unequivocally, will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency.” The doctor, Harold Bornstein, later said Trump had dictated the letter to him.(?)

My informants in the US have said that Biden is of an age , that on signs of infirmity (???) he can be replaced by the parties canditate, which one might assume would be the Vice President. So the US could have its first female President? in through the back door???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris

Either winner will create (more) disruption and chaos...so?

Pertinent revision: The Roman Empire lost the strengths that had allowed it to exercise effective control over its Western provinces; modern historians posit factors including the effectiveness and numbers of the army, the health and numbers of the Roman population (virus?), the strength of the economy, the competence of the Emperors, the internal struggles for power, the religious changes of the period, and the efficiency of the civil administration. Increasing pressure from invading barbarians (migrants, refugees???) outside Roman culture also contributed greatly to the collapse. Climate change has been suggested as a driver of the changes in some of these factors...thanks wikileaks! LOL

Its all fun, smokes and mirrors, dont take it too seriously,
Go Gold,
into a tsunami (s) of uncertainty
the gnome (beach, bunker, food, warm clothes -not sure what happened to climate warming but thats another story, good wine, better book)

Reporting is breathtaking and a lot of it interesting. "Biden has won Pennsylvania absentee ballots by an overwhelming margin so far". He has won so far...? Leading?

Dare I think it, dare I say it....