Member Info for goldgnome

Thanks

There is a fair bit around, some of the more succinct ...
The 2 minutes summary on central banks and the games they WANT TO PLAY...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvH66fz9nyU

A little modepth, on the most extraordinary aspect of what has been going on, and the game is the same
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSUSGbXHTiM

and in more detail again
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zaabewwvf3w

worth watching, turn off the sex, drugs and tv, not to mention the algorithmic waltz on social media

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the Gnome

Arent there some strange things happening. You suspect the central bankers, economists and pollies are making a mess again. Happened before?
When the economy is operating below potential, it makes sense for the central bank to ensure that the cost of funding is not a constraint on investment.
But when nominal rates are already close to zero, it makes no sense for the central bank to attempt to take rates lower still.
Instead, it is time to examine why entrepreneurs are not responding to the yawning gap between funding costs and healthy profits.

Why are the entrepreneurs being so difficult?

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the Gnome

Here is a very nice insight into the creation of money, and the real workings of the Bank by Professor Werner. A little different to how one would think, or some would have you believe. It is most remarkable that there should be such confusion about something as fundamental as baking. Why?

Remarkably clear
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IzE038REw2k
very interesting GBP 2.5m payout, to the Professor, still being contested
https://www.hampshirechronicle.co.uk/news/17699078.professor-wins-2-5m-payout-southampton-university-missed-tribunal/
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the Gnome

There is some related material, that can be found in THE PRINCES OF THE YEN, which is a deep dig on the role of the Japanese Princes of the Central Bank, in the destruction of Japans economy and future. Perhaps not heard of this. Its why hiostory repeats itself, and is about to again. The book, not unsurprisingly, is not available at Amazon?
But for those who like a good documentary version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-IZZxyb1GI
and you maybe able to download the pdf at
https://www.pdfdrive.com/princes-of-the-yen-japans-central-bankers-and-the-transformation-of-the-economy-d157939755.html
...

Princes of the Yen reveals how post-war Japanese society was transformed to suit the agenda of powerful interest groups, and how citizens were kept entirely in the dark about this. History is now repeating itself around the world.

Based on a book by Professor Richard Werner, a visiting researcher at the Bank of Japan during the 90s crash, during which the stock market dropped by 80% and house prices by up to 84%. The film uncovers how the Bank of Japan pumped up and then crashed the Japanese economy, with an aim of inducing change. Today, what happened in Japan 25 years ago is repeating itself in Europe, with an aim of centralizing power in the Eurozone. (and we wont mention the USA)

The film shows why it is important for central banks to be accountable and transparent. It also explains how International Financial Organizations such as the IMF seek to impose conditions on countries that are mainly of benefit to dominant Western interests. For anyone interested in understanding recent developments and the significance of the establishment of institutions such as the AIIB and the BRICS led New Development Bank, Princes of the Yen provides the background.

Princes of the Yen reveals with clarity the control levers that underpin the dominant ideology of the 21st Century. Piece by piece, reality is deconstructed to reveal the world as it is, not as those in power would like us to believe that it is.

“Because only power that is hidden is power that endures.”

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the gnome ...

Having got through my 3rd self quarantine, after doing something as daft as flying from one Nation State in Oz to another, I remain bemused by the word recovery. Let alone global recovery. The world will recover as it has numerous times before, from the latest virus, but recovery from the gross stupidity of numerous governments is a bridge too far. Dokavitch won the Australian Open Tennis in superb style, and the Tournament wedged and hedged by Victorian Government State lock downs, looks like running an $80m loss, which has taken out Australian Tennis's cash! Now we hear about Australia Govt is not printing enough money to be competitive with other Governments, and so the A$ is acendant.The battle continues, “Otherwise, the House looks set to approve the $US1.9 trillion fiscal package over the weekend, with the debate set to shift to the Senate as President Joe Biden pushes for a deal to be finalised by the middle of March.”billions are a thing of the past we need trillions. For those wanting to get into the exact science thats 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 and for those for fondness of history a billion is 1,000,000,000 Thats an increase of 3 orders of magnitude for those with physics degrees.The rush to the housing market in Oz is on! The equities is too hard, and their paper might end up being worth as much as the Fiat paper I guess is the thought.The January personal income data in Oz and spending released on Friday showed incomes surging by 10 per cent month over month as a result of December’s fiscal package (!!!), which helped drive a 2 per cent month over month rise in real personal spending. So we have QE led spending spruiking the stats, what a lovely way to bat out of a recession...and on the show goes, but who pays for it??? good luck puntersthe Gnome

Yes Mr T

There are a few who think that the Europeans bought a lot of wrong doing to this country (convicts, liars, shonksters, tarts etc), and severely disrupted the songlines.

good luck to us all, and I do hope the POG goes up

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the gnome

Perhaps just keep a good eye on the Bond Market

The other matters. There are a few things that do matter ...

1. Companies do have to make a profit
2. They do have to grow, profitably

So afterplay, and forplay or what ever, do have to make sustainable and growable revenues and profits

Other wise the next big thing (and these are always coming along) will emerge and devour
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the gnome

In times like these one can expect the smart movers with money and friends to move in and get the quality assets, especially those with a tier 1 asset. The Mums and Dads head for the door, sell down the shares, take a loss, and the smart movers get a leveraged position for cheap, and leverage quietly up tot he tipping point.

The gold discovery rate is in serial decline, all the low hanging fruit have well and truly been plucked. No new exploration technology to provide fresh eyes and new discoveries. Mining grades going down for decades (Centamins resources will last how long with no new discoveries). Mines getting deeper. Could even be a bitcoin type scenario, where in a decade or so, no new gold will be minted? and then what happens?

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the gnome

PS if you ever wanted to know how much faith I have in governments providing a fix to the mess we are in, I was sent an email reminding me it was 30 years since the Wool Industry blew up in Australia, principally due to government management and engineering. And the Farmers have still not recovered. I dont expect a real sustainable recovery anytime soon, and keep your eyes on the bond rate.
Thirty years ago, Australia's wool industry was on the brink of disaster.

Key points:
Australia's wool industry crashed in 1991 which led to an oversupply of wool
As a result, Australia had a stockpile of 4.7 million bales of wool in storage
Wool growers were forced to shoot their sheep because of the amount of wool already on the market
Overconfidence in the market in the mid 1980s saw the reserve price rise to 830 cents a kilogram.

As wool growers increased production rates, the national stockpile steadily grew to a whopping 4.7 million bales of wool, costing the industry an estimated $3 million a day in storage fees.

Then, in February 1991, the Australian Wool Price Reserve Scheme was suspended and the market collapsed.

What is relentless is the endless BS

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kikzjTfos0s

Recovery, jobs for all, its over, we are cured...etc

We are skewered, and best of luck to the young guns (and hopefuls) who may well never fire a shot in anger, in this stupifying reset
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kikzjTfos0s

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the gnome

The messaging coming from the new CEO is very clear, and a cut above what has happened, but definitely consistent with what has happened. A real advertisement that you seldom see in the Mining Indutsry, where shareholder returns are a focus, rather than chasing the next M and A Opp, or the next Capex splurge.

"Investment Case
Centamin is a gold producer, operating the Sukari Gold Mine for the last ten years. We have a trusted track record of generating returns across our stakeholder groups, having distributed in excess of US$1.25 billion over six years. "
"Centamin is well positioned amongst intermediate gold producers to generate significant capital returns for shareholders. Our clear strategic focus is to generate long-term value and returns from quality assets, producing profitable ounces, improving margins and maximising cash flow through financial discipline."

Debt free
Royalty and streaming free (getting rarer by the minute)
Cash in the bank
Committemnt to paying healthy dividends
Focus on their knitting
Open to expansion in other jurisdictions but not racing in with cheque book in hand...

My view of the Miing Industry, is that all is dependent on the quality of the orebody. Top quality management is very rare. Look at the mistakes at Rio, blowing up heriatge sites, not doing work on mine geomechanics, overpaying on asset aquisition, paying consulatnts far too much in Guinea and protesting innocense in Bribery and Corruption...etc

CEY has done well by its shareholders, and needs to give the new CEO his head, and keep talking loud and very clear to shareholders, and I strongly believe they can do this

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the Gnome

Just a laugh a minute, have a look at this serious indepth interview.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnwREfg-kWY
I am not sure why she does not ask the most obvious question "Don't you think it is a tad unethical to be promoting actions by investors that make you money? and set them up for a loss making event?"

Still lots of "rooting and tooting" going on in the wild west LOL.

You wonder how much money Wall Street would make if they and their mates didn't tack the books so much in their own favour.

Its great to control the momentum of stocks, set the wave up, and then depart quietly side right ...

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the gnome

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor is a leading loud advocate for bitcoin, calling on other companies, instos, people or anything for that matter, to buy the digital token as an investment. Why? because he has taken an early strong position at a low price, and wants to make a lot of mullah? MicroStrategy buys more than $1 billion worth of bitcoin, adding to massive holdings

KEY POINTS
MicroStrategy announced it has bought just over $1 billion worth of bitcoin.
The purchase of 19,452 bitcoins puts the company’s total holdings of the digital token at 90,531.
MicroStrategy said the average purchase price of all its bitcoin purchases is $23,985 per digital token

As of Wednesday, bitcoin has a total market cap of roughly $920.85 billion (Coindesk)...and based on the price of bitcoin Wednesday morning, the firm’s holdings were worth nearly $4.5 billion.

So on goes the show, demand and supply....

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the gnome

There are numerous discussions going on about the numerous BS articles and opinions, how the world is going to get better (hope), how viruses that mutate are going to tangle with polical theorieews which include 100% elimination etc. Pure BS. To remind you of how much BS there is going on lets look at BS Jobs, which keeps circulating, because who is going to create the jobs. RULE OUT Government's who have been shown to be swimming fluently without any cossies on.

"I do digital consultancy for global pharmaceutical companies’ marketing departments. I often work with global PR agencies on this, and write reports with titles like How to Improve Engagement Among Key Digital Health Care Stakeholders. It is pure, unadulterated bull****, and serves no purpose beyond ticking boxes for marketing departments. .?.?. I was recently able to charge around twelve thousand pounds to write a two-page report for a pharmaceutical client to present during a global strategy meeting. The report wasn’t used in the end because they didn’t manage to get to that agenda point."

good luck

The gnome

Bitcoin to $100k in what time period? Not a lot of substance in the argument, but an incredible amount of hype eminating from people who have taken positions before spruiking...in most places its called a classic CONCFLICT OF INTEREST! But in the USA its called BUSINESS AS USUAL ...

good luck punters, but the chances that I will end up buying bitcoin is ZERO

They dont even know who wrote the code FGS
Reminds me of a bit like the patent process....nothing is worth a thing untul it is tested in a court of Law, and this is where a lot of this willl end up. You know who will win this...

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the Gnome

After effectively ramping what he had already bought into in Bitcoin, he then put his foot in his mouth.

Elon Musk is no longer the world’s richest person after Tesla shares slid 8.6 per cent on Monday, wiping $US15.2 billion ($19.2 billion) from his net worth.

Tesla’s biggest decline since September was fuelled in part by Mr Musk’s comments over the weekend that the prices of bitcoin and smaller rival ether “do seem high lol”. His message – via his favoured medium of Twitter – came two weeks after Tesla announced it added $US1.5 billion in bitcoin to its balance sheet.

the gnome

Ray Dalio criteria for recognising bubbles?

1. How high are prices relative to traditional measures?
2. Are prices discounting unsustainable conditions?
3. How many new buyers (i.e., those who weren’t previously in the market) have entered the market?
4. How broadly bullish is sentiment?
5. Are purchases being financed by high leverage?
6. Have buyers made exceptionally extended forward purchases (e.g., built inventory, contracted forward purchases, etc.) to speculate or protect themselves against future price gains?

and how do markets stack up now. Some sectors underdone, some way overdone?

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/we-stock-market-bubble-ray-dalio/
worth a read, and the follow on comments are also interesting
the gnome

Signe Howell on the value of gold for the Lio people of Flores. Originating beyond Lio society, gold is notably acquired in affinal exchanges by wife-givers, thus in return for the transfer of women’s reproductivepowers between patrilineal groups. Not incidentally, this is a common use of foreign-derived wealth the anthropological world around—which also suggests that the original money uses were social payments and storage of the life-values thereof.
As Howell (1989: 430–31) relates, life inheres in Flores’ gold, not inertly but as a communicable force:

Gold is . . . not inanimate, it is imbued with life-force—a life-force
which is as necessary for the recreation of life-processes as rice and
women. . . . [G]old in itself has potency of a life-promoting kind: gold
alone among things in the Lio world shows no sign of aging, its shine
continues through the ages. . . . I suggest that there is a conceptual link
between red gold [the most valuable kind], blood, and women, which
together adds to the significance of gold as the vital part of alliance
exchanges. . . . Gold and women/rice constitute each other within the
semantic domain of the flow of life.

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.14318/hau3.2.010
or
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13vX9VbPbkA&t=1219s
at 17.10 onwards ....

great thoughts
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the Gnome

Thanks Siko

Investors dont really understanding the difference between having $x00m cash in the bank and $x00m in debt. One means you can pay dividends, you can quickly develop mines and you can get money relatively easier from Bankers. The other means you dont pay dividends, and its a tough gig raising money to develop mines on "growth terms"

Endeavour has a superior spruiking machine IF you believe in BS and cant get to the subtance of the matter yourself...

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the Gnome

"Given the current market conditions, specifically increased volatility in the international markets, the CommSec team want to ensure you are well equipped and aware of the associated risks. When investing in international markets it is important to understand the differences between investing domestically and internationally. Below you will find further information on the risks associated with investing in offshore markets...."

....specifically increased volatility ......

stating the obvious or preparing for more volatility

good luck punters!

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the gnome

Yes great comment Cowichan. Sebastion povides lots of fodder for the Journo's. The share price of Endeavour looks like it will revert to the 2017 price soon. But give him his due he does promote the stock well, and has great rapport with brokers and insto's..at the moment.

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the Gnome