Member Info for goldgnome

Investors use the US 10-year bond yield as the benchmark for pricing all financial assets ( shares and property etc). But what happens when they suspect it’s a ‘fake’ rate (where is Donald when you need him?)? Recap: the US 10-year bond is viewed as the global risk-free asset....its yield is considered the benchmark when it comes to setting the price of all other financial assets...hence there’s growing pressure on the US Federal Reserve to promise to keep a lid on long-term bond yields...the Fed could follow the lead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (grief?) in embracing yield curve control. The Australian central bank has set a target of 0.1 per cent for three-year government bonds, pledging to buy as many government bonds as necessary to achieve this target. Well after all Australia has led the world and managed the pandemic better than most (despite being an island adjacent the bus stop at the end of the world)?

BUT the big global banks have clearly demonstrated that they have more than enough fire-power to push bond yields to whatever level they choose...the question is one of credibility, the risk is that bond yields lose their credibility as a benchmark if central banks intervene too aggressively
the chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, wrote .... “the equity market now knows the 10-year yield is a ‘fake’ rate that either can’t or won’t be defended.”

So those that think gold is manipulated, as is forex, etc, spare a thought for the 10 year bond rate. There is a lot of fakery in the financial structure, and the people who control the financial universe hopefully can get the house in order..?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGxSM5y7Pfs

The house of cards and paper teeters...

best of luck all

the Gnome.

That does speak to me....exciting!

Shcroders are a large global investment instiution. Have been and are on the Centamin top 20.
https://www.centamin.com/investors/shares-dividends/shareholder-information/
You can learn about Schroders at
https://www.schroders.com/
Seem well run,

You can keep abreast of what the major shareholders are doing...
https://www.centamin.com/investors/regulatory-news/

best
the gnome

Have you calculated the interest bill, if the interest rates go up? Right now all the lemmings are heading into real estate in Oz.
The stats and implications are frightening...

"Australian household debt has steadily risen over the past three decades as more of us aim to own homes and continue to rely on products such as car loans and credit cards. In fact, the ratio of household spend to income has more than doubled between 1995 and 2015, going from 104% to 212%, according to the OECD Data released in 2015. This means if the average person earns $80,000 net, they are spending $169,600 per year." ... and we are buying up reals estate like there is no tomorrow...tourism industry on its knees, University bsuiness model teetering at best....

Our personal debt is just behind Denmark, Norway and Netherlands...
Good luck if you think the central bankers are going to let that happen?
https://www.finder.com.au/australias-personal-debt-reported-as-highest-in-the-world

....the ultimate flow-on from continued high debt levels is the risk of a financial and economic crisis if Australia's overseas creditors get nervous about our ability to repay what we owe them on time and in full.

"If foreign lenders begin to take a dim view of Australia and, particularly, its banks, they'll be reluctant to reinvest, they may require a higher interest rate, they may, in the last instance, simply refuse, in which case you've got big problems,"

Not sure what will come first, an interest rate rise or social unrest...or both?

best

the gnome

Modestus!
Yes, exactly. Not to put too finer point on it, bottom line recomendation..

"$15K gold

Before the end of the current bull cycle, gold could reach $15,000 an ounce, and that is a conservative estimate, Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner said.

"We still believe we will see a $15,000 gold price before this gold bull market is over. For patient investors with long-term horizons, we recommend aggressive accumulation of both gold and silver on any price weakness over the coming months," he said. "The relationship that we look at is the amount of money that has been printed and the gold price."

The trigger will be recognition by federal governments of the precarious financial conditions they are in, which will lead to direct monetization. "This direct debt monetization could set off the massive inflationary problem as soon mid-decade.""

bring it on...
the gnome (relaxed and comfortable!)

Hi Sotolo

I think the cart got in front of the horse and bolted. The media ran with tales of horror (as they are prone to do when not investigating the private lives of the rich and famous), the pseudo-mathematicians got a chance to grab 5 minutes in the sun and show their modelling skills and predicted 10's of millions of deaths (etc) all of which have been shown now to have been skewed positively (but lets not go there), epidemiologists jumped out of their cave, the politicians over-reacted to the media swill, the economists joined the party, and it all got out of hand. And there there was the appearance of the new Messiah, Bill Gates!

I have been waiting for some proper science to be reported, and turned into real statistics so that we can properly understand what is going on. I have no doubt we are dealing with a very contagious disease, but have doubts about how catastrophically deadly it is. There is a big difference between someone who has died because of Covid, and someone who has died who has Covid, and their are a lot of serious statisitcs not reported, or poorly known, or guessed at ...

Interestingly now we have the media now posting the vaccines in shining armour and white horses, so the world will become more positive..for a while, economies recover, until the virus variant from the souther part of the Mekong delta arises...and away we go again. What happened to the War on Terror, or was it War on Error, LOL

Sorry, perhaps getting a it too cyncial! or an overdose of my medicine!!

best
the Gnome

CSD
Only a fool or a very naive person would believe the markets are rational. They are in fact far more emotional, with the lemmings getting blown around by the tides of the influence peddlers (many having taken positions before exerting influence of one way or another, depending on the position they have taken). Bitcoin is a classic as I have pointed out previously. In N America they seem to think this behaviour is OK and just part of the promo. In other jurisdictions, it is called conflict of interest etc.

The major issues at the moment

1. The transtion to a more professional management and leadership. Very common in my experience that the guys who get the sship going or work on development, let it all go to their head, and they think (miraculously) that they can run an operation. Two different skill sets. CEY in my opinion has taken too long to transition, but the new leadership, board and management seem to be intent on running the operation. The market waits to see the walk. The talk is fine. But does walk=talk?

2. The POG and gold sentimient is taking a buffetting. Not much one can do about this BUT, as I said before, its great time to reign in the costs, get rid of personnel who are not up to it and be more strningent on capital deployment... and its just part of the business cycle,

3. The massive uncertainty, which is fuelled by the global economy being in unchartered waters, the weight of political and media nonsense and unreasoned anxiety going on about the virus, the economists siezing their chance to go apopleptic (again, worlds going to end etc) and RESET the global economy (and we know where that will end up)

West Africa. Yes I am frustrated at the lack of clear and decisive aciton, but there must be reasnon for this. I know that some of the "management" theyhad in place was "not the best", so relieved that they have moved on, and I am hearing better things about the new crop in West Africa. It does take time to get on top of being a best operator in this jurisdiction, but if you manage via clearly communicated principles and in a disciplined fashion, you can make a lot of money. The reverse is true

best
the Gnome.

Remaining intrigued as to what Centamin have planned for the West African Assets, including people and know how. Their first foray was less than brilliant, especially in terms of people, but, like many mining ventures, they have landed on their feet with new discoveries in Doropo and ABC, both within Cote Ivoire. The number of significant gold discoveries in the Birrimian of West Africa is above that produced from other geological terranes in the last 10-20 years (see the work of Richard Schodde). In fact Tier 1 discoveries are becoming very rare, as are Major gold discoveries.

In West Africa Centamin sit on 5 m ozs of gold, in the Measured and Inidcated category, which is not a bad starter resource for any company, and I would suspect not a bad starter for a West African Gold Operation. I would think they need to do some PEA and get some better feel for how many of the resource ounces convert to reserve (minable) ounces, and indeed how the projects stack up against their financial metrics for capital deployment. If they dont make the cut, then divest into some vehicle, that can make these resources into profitable ounces.

One of the advantages in West Africa is that you have a very nimble propsecting group, composed of 5 million persons (called artisinal propsectors and miners), who are proven ore finders. They keep turning up the goods! Having watched these people throughout West Africa, they are an amazing group, with the key is they get out in the field, sample down to very fine densities and know gold when they see it (you maybe surprised that some Geologists have trouble with this?)

Of interest is that there is new gold technology comning into the field this year, which will enable people to measure gold in soils/rocks down to 20 ppb in the field in same day. Game changer, and game on for those who are serious about exploration!
https://portableppb.com/images/pdf/detectORE_Overview_Website_101011.pdf

best
the gnome.

The trouble with Martin, is he is an economist? and we all know what that means?

I am still recovering from your post Arfur. I think the first reaction would be that Boris would complain he was overworked and be asking for a significant payrise, ... and a summer residence in the Lakes District, probably with some french maids (and you know the rest no doubt)

good grief?

best
the Gnome

Well here it is out in the open now. Controversey about Covid Stats, which have been less than illuminating, but will occupy centre stage for medical and psycholgical research for the next centruy, well if we get that far. Here we go...

Here in Australia, this week’s data from the Bureau of Statistics, covering January 1 to November 24, 2020, registers 126,974 deaths, against an average of 127,872 over the past five years (lets not worry about standard deviations and all that science). Interestingly, influenza and pneumonia deaths in that 2020 period numbered 1,952, against the five-year average of 3,097.

Should we attribute that decline to the use of masks and social distancing, as we are encouraged to do, or the heroic positions of the State Pemiers and othe rpoliticians? ; or is it faintly possible the missing 1,000 people who would normally have died of flu and pneumonia are the ones who succumbed to COVID when it first arrived? Did the virus simply tip those teetering on the verge of death into an earlier quarter?

We, of course, cut ourselves off from the world, so perhaps our figures are artificially low. So let’s consider the “nightmare scenario” playing out in Britain.

Last month the UK’s Office of National Statistics added its provisional 2020 figures to a series that goes back almost 200 years. It shows a rate of 1043.5 deaths per 100,000 population, ahead of 2019’s number of 925.

I would describe that rise with the COVID-appropriate word “unprecedented”, except the rate has been higher before, most recently in 2008 (when the unprecedented global financial crisis arrived, raised blood pressures and must have had a tad more than a financial impact?), when I don’t believe the world shut down. Oh yes, and it was higher in every single year before 2008, right back to 1838, when the records begin. Whatever was happening back then?

So if the impact of deaths from COVID (and I think we all know by now we should be saying “with”, not “from”) is not as bad as it first appeared, why are British hospitals reported to be almost overflowing, at or near 90 per cent occupancy? (Mr Tibbles, please leap in?) Unprecedented again, until you note the country’s National Health Service has the entirely reasonable efficiency goal of having fewer than 15 per cent of beds lying vacant at any time.

Or might the fact that in the past 30 years Britain has reduced the number of hospital beds from 300,000 to 140,000, while adding 10 million to its population, shed some light on the situation?

I could go on buts thats enough...

good luck to all
the gnome

British taxpayers are being warned that wartime-levels of borrowing are unsustainable, although workers will be largely spared in a budget that targets big business to help pay for the mammoth spending which has shielded the economy from collapse.

The government will have spent at least £407 billion ($730 billion) on stimulus payments, wage subsidies and other support by the time the coronavirus crisis is hoped to subside next year, pushing borrowing to heights not seen since World War II.

“The amount we’ve borrowed is comparable only with the amount we borrowed during the two World Wars,” Sunak told the House of Commons.

time to get real assets, and dont be caught holding the fiat IOU's or something that goes out when the energy bill appears, or the greenies discover the real cost of bitcoin!

best
the Gnome

Hi Beer

I have loved the rhetoric about Gold being a relict of the past, etc. But it is in our DNA, and its hard to hit a button and eject.

best
the gnome

The investor presentation is a breath of fresh air compared to the ones under the previous regime. Clear, well mapped out, not cluttered.

A much clearer vision of what is going to be done, where when, expenditures and hurdles. Well done, and I look forward to a far better run Centamin, delivering signifcant operating improvement and returns to shareholders.

best
the Gnome

Another thing for Charlie Munger to munch on in regard to Banks

https://www.icij.org/investigations/fincen-files/watch-how-banks-move-dirty-money-around-the-world/?utm_source=ICIJ&utm_campaign=1694d26be5-20210302_WeeklyEmail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_992ecfdbb2-1694d26be5-83408986&ct=t()

Their performance has been woeful. Still looking for a properly run bank.

best
the Gnome

The interesting possibility lies

1. The gold price is beyond CEY control
2. Given the gold price is going down, CEY management will tighten its belt, and work harder to optimise operations.

From 1, 2 the future margins when the world regains its senses, will be greater. This will be relfected in share price!

best
the gnome

PS Dont worry about the new Emperor!

Dear Sotolo

I dont look at charts. The shorters are here today, gone tomorrow. I wish them well in their well trodden path of nonsense.
As I have said previously, I am a long termer. The ups and downs, and the shorters and longers do their own thing. I am sure they know what they are doing. If not so be it.

Bitcoin is like Tulips, but tulips are far more beautiful than an algorithm, but then how things have changed. But algorithms may come and certainly they will go.

Believe me, Gold will be around a long time (even after my own immortality?) after the energy goes out of bitcoin...Somehow the new bright things always seem to be a lot duller than what is tried and proven,, after a short while. Yes you can provide the rhetoric, of how this time it will be bigger and brighter. The argument is dry.

Best to keep your clothes on, as the new Emperor, despite what he thinks, hasn't got a lot on, and is in unchartered waters.

best
the gnome

I think it will drift to $10050p

Just my opinion, no evidence, do your own research ...LOL

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIkk7AfYymg&t=35s

Great quote from Charlie Munger
""I do think that a properly run bank is a great contributor to civilization and that the central banks of the world like controlling their own banking system and their own money supplies," Munger added.

Show me a bank which is properly run, money laundering of one form or another, deception, not involved in exploitating its social license it is handed on a platter by the government 24/7

Not a great contribution to society in the last 1000 years I suspect, and it could be done a lot better! And hopefully we come up with a better way of structuring finance rather than the opaque, conflicted mess we have now

I have said enough about central banks.

best
the gnome