Member Info for goldgnome

DaggerMal

So I've been sprung being naughty! Once upon a time I took a passing interest in charting, and it was a fleeting interest at that.
I deduced that it was for people with more time on their hands than sense, and put it in the "wiggles and giggles" basket, where it remains to this day. There appears to me to be better ways to invest your time.

... But "whatever gets one through the night"

Good luck, as it will not be a lot more than that

best
the gnome

if it goes to 80p, what would be the effective dividend %

cheers

Thanks Fugazil,

very well reasoned, and hence convincing

the gnome

Yes,
So much contrivance ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5WxdqmAue0
Beyond Conspiracy - The Terrifying Truth Of Corporate Power

best
the Gnome

Exactly. Farcical.

The game will get interesting when the world realizes that Banks are a relict of the past. The world does not need them, especially in their conflicted positions of exorbitant privilege. There is so much baggage that the world does not need, which is in part why the 6 big techs are doing so well. Bigger than banks, and if you close the banks down, ... well the world would go on...but can we close the 6 big techs down.
6 you say..
1. Alpahabet
2. Amazon
3. Microsoft
4. Apple
5. Facebook
but the 6th?
https://www.palantir.com/about/
Well not on public mkt cap...?

but an interesting company
best

the Gnome...

So what did the smartest guys in the Bullion Banks say ...

“It’s free money,” said an executive at one of the largest bullion-trading banks.
“It’s double the profit on half the position,” a second banker said.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/01/29/3-banks-pay-46-6-m-alleged-spoofing-trading-scam/1075960001/
https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=73f4fa3c-055b-478a-a6d3-2a6ea464676f

You do have to spare a thought for the smartest guys in town, - their words -
Does anyone know what happens when they pass their money onto the managers of OPM (Other Peoples Money)? How decisions are made, who makes them, ethics, commonsense ... ?

What on earth were some of the world’s biggest investment banks thinking when they enabled an opaque family office whose founder had a history of regulatory issues to rack up multibillion dollars worth of leverage?

It is still unclear where Archegos Capital fits into the scheme of spectacular hedge fund blow-ups. But the early signs are that it will probably prove the biggest since Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse in 1998.
The saga erupted into the open last Friday when Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley broke cover and started dumping multibillion-dollar positions in US and Chinese stocks. They did it on behalf of an unnamed investment fund that had failed a “margin call” — essentially a demand to put up more collateral against its trades.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/archegos-fiasco-poses-hard-questions-for-wall-street-20210330-p57f5g
We have the case of the amicable farmer who ran Greensills Capital provided financing to Sanjeev Gupta’s business empire based on invoices from ostensibly independent companies with links to the steel magnate, raising new questions about the quality of the collateral underpinning billions of dollars of loans...only about $5b in play, but hey, thats another day!

It does make you wonder about the robustness of the rules and regulations that allow this and other farcical situations to go on.
The futures market is a case in point, the market we had to have. However, the futures market – where global spot silver and gold prices are set – is another story.
The supply and demand for actual physical bars is pretty much irrelevant when exchanging paper contracts.
The bullion banks can, and do, float vast quantities of paper ounces. On some days, the volume of paper traded exceeds the entire annual global mine production for the metal. The number of actual bars on hand to underpin those contracts generally represents about 1% of the notional quantity involved. Often it is far less.
'Free money' for banks as investors pile into fractured gold market
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-gold-trading-insig-idUSKCN26C0DQ
What can one say ... smartest guys ... ?

..and on the circus goes...

6.7% div is well ahead of most industrial stocks, BM miners etc.....

best
the gnome

MARCH 23, 2021: “I am very encouraged by initial discussions on a possible SDR allocation of US$650 billion. By addressing the long-term global need for reserve assets, a new SDR allocation would benefit all our member countries and support the global recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. It would also be a powerful signal of the IMF membership’s determination to do everything possible to overcome the WORST RECESSION SINCE THE GREAT DEPORESSION.

“To this end, Executive Directors conveyed broad support among Fund members for IMF staff to formulate a proposal for a new SDR allocation equivalent to US$650 billion to provide additional liquidity to the global economic system by supplementing the reserve assets of the Fund’s 190 member countries.

Lets bot panic, but watch gold ..
best
the gnome

Cowichan
Would seem most reasonable. We have house prices jumping hugely in all capital cities, and other bubbles on the equities market are forming.
I almost choked when I saw the press on VW, which seems to imply that TESLA is on a more massive bubble than I thought!?
Why Volkswagen could be the new Tesla...or a lot more and lot better!!!
Expect the iconic German manufacturer to easily become and hold the position of the most electric vehicle unit sales globally by 2030.
Volkswagen shares have powered higher recently, after the German auto giant presented its technology roadmap for batteries and “charging up to 2030” on its first so-called ‘Power Day’.
This was akin to Tesla’s ‘Battery Day’,
Volkswagen outlined plans to scale up already ambitious EV plans even more aggressively by going “all in” on battery technology and production.
The company plans to build six “gigafactories” in Europe by 2030 with a total production capacity of 240 gigawatt hours to secure battery supply in a partnership model with other firms. The first two factories will operate in the Swedish city of Skellefteå and in the German city of Salzgitter.
A new unified cell technology is slated to provide “enormous” cost savings from 2023, reducing battery costs in the entry-level segment by up to 50 per cent and in the volume segment by up to 30 per cent. The unified cells are expected to power up to 80 per cent of all electric vehicles for the group by 2030.

Gigacells, gigafactories, spawning their own cities. Is there room enough for TESLA, VW, Toyota and other competitors.
Suggests to me that TESLA has enetered a new level of frothiness...

best.
the gnome

Couldn't agree more. I have noticed CEY missing in various "guides to Goldies", in favour of some which are sub-marginal.
Of course to get on these guides does cost money, so when reading the guides, see if you can spot who has paid to "advertise" themselves in the guide.

The Guides are not what they seem...

the Gnome

Good question.

Short answer, from discovery to Development is about 4-7 years. Rarely shorter. Briefly, have to drill out to get a RESERVE, complete robust metallurgical studies, geoengineering, complete a Feasibiltiy Study, organise finance, procurement, build, commission, move to steady state...in Africa and many places where gold is fouund...develop infrastrucrture, often waiting for government help (Waiting for Godot?)

A couple of key aspects
1. The mining value curve. A good starter is at below link. In fact it is now seriously out fo date as the discovery time is now seriosuly delayed by significant under investment in exploration. Result. No major disocveries. Time to disocvery. Most companies fail, in fact I know of one company that financed exploration tot he tune of $5m pa, for a decade and found nothing commercial. Some a lot lot longer ... So time to discovery I think is now way in excess of 10 years. Tier 1 discovery a lot longer, maybe 20 years, which is why I said previously having a Tier 1 asset like Sukari is a major bonus, and it is far easier to optimise management/get a good mangement team (and who wouldn't want to work on a mine wiht 20 year mine life, which could make your career)

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/

A few other bits and pieces.
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/can-the-gold-industry-return-to-the-golden-age

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/through-cycle-investment-in-mining#

One matter becoming more critical to development is being able to find sufficient water to supprt the life of mine. If you have 100 tonne of gold in the ground, it turns out as rule of thumb that you will need over 250 ML of water to produce a tonne of gold, or 250,000 megalitres of water. Banks and financing groups were (probably still are) insisting on the mine finding this amount of water undeground! and there are parts of the world where gold occurs that this simply will not happen! For instance in Western Australia many (most) of the gold mines are sourcing water from palaeochannels, where the water is dated at 10,000 plus years old! Most of the gold regions in West Oz are deserts so there is virtually ZERO recharge. So the issue in development is not finding gold, it is fiding water, and there will come a time when there will be none left. You maybe surprised but the knowledge and rigour of which a water reosurce is defined, and the permeabilites are robustly known are not many, such that mines can ...run dry...I worked on one where the mine with a 30 year mine life, after 4 years found out they only had 2 years of water left...panic

Developing mines is not for the faint hearted, and there are a lot of variables.

I think the lack of market appreciation of the CEY assets poor, more becuase of the skittish and surfical nature of the market place. Like what I see at CEY no

Sometimes it feels quite competitive when we say this, but Centamin continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with cash and liquid assets of $310 million as of 31st of December 2020, after free cash flow generated for the year of $142 million and outflows primarily in the form of dividends. Unique amongst our peers, Centamin has never had debt, hedging or streaming in place. We are, therefore, able to maximize the strength and flexibility of the balance sheet and offer shareholders gold exposure throughout the cycle. Undeniably, our balance sheet is our strength.

Dividends are central to our strategy. In December 2020, we expressed our intention to pay a US$0.03 final dividend, and today, we have delivered on that promise. This marks the seventh consecutive year of dividend distribution. To us, this is demonstration of a good, sustainable dividend policy.

Thanks SteveJ!

"Away from Egypt, we made some excellent progress in assessing West Africa. That work is close to completion now. And I'm very much looking forward to updating you in the next month, as we continue this work, and we start to map out the next steps as we seek to realize value from our West African portfolio."

I am all ears, .... gut feel this will be positive

best
the Gnome

Steve

Yes oddly the brokers predictions, seem to favour their bets? They seem to get richer whether its buying or selling, [they make a clip either way] so volatility is good for them. Of course they are noble souls, who sometimes get lost in the traffic. But they do their best to make themselves rich (first priority) and their lovely clients next (second and distant priority). And the economists rave on about he all knowing market...what a lot of rubbish. Its all about the market makers, and they are of course, people with the best of priorities (see above)

funny world

best
the gnome

I would assume the Directors do not invest to lose money, or to appear "a tad suspect"

best
the Gnome

To state the obvious perhaps

The markets are so volatile because

1. Lack of transparency and understanding of the markets
2. Lack of credible leadership..anywhere
3. Excessive scaremongering and anxiety creation by the mass hysteria (media?) crowd
4. A Lack of critical thinking ability.in the masses..leading to.. behaviours like lemmings .. follow the New emperor..but she has no clothes on?

Etc

Ceybis in a Good commodity and has what is appearing to be superior management that will optimise future returns on a TIER 1 gold mine.. the like of which has not Ben found for a decade or 2
But please do your own research..
Best
The gnome

As a quick comment on Mali, I strongly doubt that it is deteriating. It is dragging along the bottom like it has for decades. Corruption at the highest level is endemic. Its a weakly governed and poorly led country, seemingly run by organised and disorganised criminals, recently interupted by upstarts who were military trained refugees out of the employ of Gaddaffi after the liberalisation of Libya LOL! (Libya liberalisation 2011, Mali descends into Chaos 2012, ATT booted out as his "army" did not have enough money for petrol in their non-armoured cars?) Continually hijacked by a combination of national "elites" and regional “big men’’. Pres Konaré (v interesting character) was succeeded by Amadou Toumani Touré (commonly known as ATT) who served as president from 2002-2012. ATT co-opted political opponents and employed state resources to support an extensive patronage system (much like Compaore from Burkina Faso, who robbed the poor in Burkina Faso to support his style). Economic mismanagement (to put it politely!) also negatively affected his tenure. In 2009, for example, the auditor general office estimated that US$226m was missing funds from the state budget (Transparency International 2015)." ...but I learnt in my years in West Africa, to never be surprised... and the game goes on still...the only way the locals can protest and put change in place is to organise a coup de'tat, as the democratic elections are constantly rigged or at absolute best, staged. Having had a friend who attempted to run for President in Mali, and hence I have watched the circus unfold, it is an amazing event.

Good luck for those in Mali, I do feel very sorry for the ordinary people in Mali, they deserve a lot better than what they are served up

best
the Gnome

My bet is, that it is easier to find/build a good management team to manage Sukari, than to go out and find another Sukari.

best
the gnome

Its a good sign Softrock!

The new CEO cannot put his stamp everywhere at once, and he is obviously sorting through the legacy issues of the previous "management". The most obvious place to start and focus, is at the "cash face" of the company (the mines both open pit and underground), and then work down to the other assets. As he does one can expect new management to be appointed, and in the light of the covid impact, one can expect more emphasis to be on employing and training locally.

Interesting trends in the global exploration. S and P Global Market Intelligence:> Just as much being spent, less gold being found, and a dearth of tier 1 discoveries continues.
https://pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/rs/565-BDO-100/images/world-exploration-trends-report-2020.pdf
>minesite exploration proved resilient, slipping by only
4%, or $147 million, year over year despite COVID-19-driven
uncertainty12. Minesite exploration accounted for 41% of the
global budget — a second consecutive all-time high — while
grassroots and late-stage budgets were down by 19% and
10% respectively from 2019
>Major discovery rates for
gold and copper deposits have also fallen drastically over the
past 10 years, compared with the prolific first decade of the
new century.
>Observers and policymakers have raised red flags over
negative impacts to future production from the lack of
grassroots exploration, spurring some governments to boost
domestic exploration through incentive programs - some of turned to AI
enhanced gamesmanship, generating a squillion targets, most of them
anomalies in the data base, than genuine anomalies int he earth!
>explorers and producers could be (WILL BE!) forced
to refocus on finding new discoveries at grassroots projects
over the coming years, as metals prices are forecast to
rise while the project pipeline narrows.

So its coming! The greenfields pipeline of discoveries has stalled.
The brownfields is getting deeper, and tired.

Hang in, THE SUKARI'S OF THE WORLD ARE GETTING A LOT HARDER TO FIND!

best

the gnome.