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Well we are there now one and all!

The RBA in Oz cut the offical rate to 0.1%. With inflation doing a CONSERVATIVE 1.4% thats an effective rate of -1.3%, so congrats to all you savers. Prob true effective rate is about -2.4%..message ...> dont hold onto money in bank or money at all, get real assets, equities...

Proven equities? The Banks are doing distasterously, after years of flamboyance and flatulence, paying CEO's to announce another new expansion into Asia (yawn), and then seing how it all failed yet the CEO did well (funny about that). Then there's lingering if not expanding compliance issues, governance issues, money laundering, growing fines for numerous indiscretions, regulations (etc). So dont put your money in the bank and dont depend on the Bank dividends. Grief, what does one do?

Not in Real Estate, as many people only have a part of job (forget about security), rents are low and you dont have to pay them for a year or 2 (so why buy?), and then they are not sure, lending criteria getting harder with banks, investment properties on the nose as rent may not be required to be paid. Birth rate down, Immigrants cant get past a thoroughly incompetent Immigration department, and refugees are not welcome. So demand down, supply up, as people struggle to service fixed rate loans (they were not going any lower)

Then there is a gold (!) with a proven 100 year track record. But how?

1. Gold bars
2. Gold physical ETF's
3. A Gold Producer - who have a committment to paying dividends, as we know about the numerous stories of MandA which end in tears for one party or the other.
4. A package of gold producers...ETF..which package, whats the criteria...productions ounces, margins, free cash flow, debt, technology, deposit style, mining style etc...
5. Gold Explorer..jurisdiction, have they got a team or just a big name from yesteryear who got lucky once...is there proper alignment with shareholders? Ability to raise money...
6. Package of gold exporers...
7. Royalty company (trick to see which ones actually focus on revenue from royalties, rather than acquiring royalties on exploration properties which dont pay any revenue, and are "back of Bourke"... saw an advert for a royalty company, just spent $50m buying a high quality royalty pakage from a major, which had no revenue, no resources, and from what I could see no hope of doing much than milking share holders.

My goldies are CEY, A1G (African Gold, ASX), Capricorn Metals (ASX), Benz Mining (tsx-v), al8 (ALDERAN Resources asx), Elemental Royalties (Ele; tsx-v), AOP (Apollo Consoldiated;ASX). NOT TRADING, SITTING AND WATCHING.

Yep, trading in multiple makets, just like gold companies trade in multiple markets and multiple jurisdictions. It is worth the effort, and its not much effort these days.

And last from the RBA in Oz....Reserve Bank of Australia's $100 billion QE plans insignificant compared to the $31 trillion power play by the world's Centr

CEY is not alone in bringing bad results to the market. In Oz we have the darlings of the ASX doing it very tough, and for years if not a decade. Westpac’s result was always going to be bad, given its $1.3 billion settlement with AUSTRAC and the $3.2 billion in provisions it has taken to buttress the bank from the impact of COVID-19.But the 62 per cent fall in cash earnings to $2.6 billion shows deeper problems. Westpac’s mortgage business is struggling badly, its expense base is too high and its technology challenges are far from solved.
The ANZ profit down 42%, The bank has made a credit impairment charge of $2.74 billion before tax for the full-year, $2 billion higher than the level a year ago, to provide a buffer if pandemic losses materialise. The bank still has 61,000 deferred home loans across Australia and New Zealand, down from 108,000 as of July 31, with another 10,000 frozen business loans, down from a peak of 23,000.

The posturing, billowing and bellowing in the US is enough to frighten any market in the world, and will cause chaos for months. Just what we need ... another virus.

Company Revenue (2019) Net Income (2019) Mkt Cap Net Inc/M Cap
Amazon $280.5 billion $11.6 billion $1304b 0.88%
Alphabet $161.9 billion $34.3 billion $986b 3.5%
Microsoft $125.8 billion $39.2 billion $1468b 2.7%
Facebook $70.8 billion $18.5 billion $671b 2.7%

The economists, have been proven to not be able to predict much of use have now turned their prodigous talents to predicting virus deaths associated with Trump campaigning...why just Trump? ... a study by Stanford University economists estimate that there have been at least 30,000 COVID-19 cases and 700 deaths as a result of 18 campaign rallies President Donald Trump held from June to September...grief!

In the end of the day there is a description of Tier 1 orebody, which goes like this, it will turn a profit no matter how bad the managment is, and prop up the company. The Iron Ore mines in Oz have been winners despite Rio blowing up sacred sites, BHP buying a raft of liabilities from Magma Copper, tailings dam failings, calamitous moves into ALCAN, Oyu Tolgoi disasters of $1b's and delays of years in development (project NPV is now what?), Coal in Mozambique, and now....Rio Tinto’s QIT Minerals Madagascar (QMM) mine in Madagascar has breached the limits of an environmental buffer zone..and on the show goes...

The CEY guys are not doing too bad, in these usnual times ... and I think they have plenty of scope to get a lot better.

Tough job to pick a winner these days ...

GOOD luck to us all,
don't forget your sense of humour!
best
the Gnome ...

Thanks Cowachin

At the moment the Burkina assets are not on the balance sheet, so not paying a lot of attention apart from whinging every now and again.

What has been the case here has been (briefly)

1. refractory nature of most of the resource, hence need to find more oxide, which they supposedly spent a lot of money trying to do this, and I can only assume this was not successful apart from their reporting a few "hits" here and there", however a lot of money has been spent, people employed etc, so this is probably why they have been able to hang onto their mining lease. The main point is not whether they hang onto the mining lease (I think the argument goes is that they negotiated this to try and avoid some of the more onerous terms in the new mining legislature), but whether they mine or get out/sell for cash and/or equity. Sitting around like they have for a long time now is a lose-lose-lose, unless of course you argue that there is new met technology around the corner, that can unwrap the value, and this continually changes (etc).
2. high stripping ratio, not much you can do here, but maybe the POG has made a difference??? but no informaiton released, despite lots of analysis being done.

As to your comments on others doing exploration and mining and so all is well, as I am sure you are aware, Burkina is a large and inhomogenous country. There are different risk portfolios for different regions, dependent on tribal groups, conflicts, etc. The Batie lease is in the country of the Lobi tribe, who notoriusly do not even trust their own family members, and who are fiercely independent and suspicious of outsiders. (They tend to live in isolated huts with about an arrow shot seperation?) In fact I think the French never conquered them, and getting tax paid by them to the Central Burkina Govt was like getting blood out of a stone. Also unfortunately the area is near a triple border junction (Burkina, Cote DIvoire and Ghana), which is a great place for robbers and alike who commit a robbery in one jurisdiction and then run into the next and hide. Its not impossible to manage this situation, but it does need a very experienced crew, and experience should be local and not a few guys jetting from London or Egypt.

The Burkina Govt is well aware of what goes on in this part of the country...and are no doubt sympathetic. Importantly the Lobi are also well aware of the need to move their economy along, and that mining is a good way forward. in the last 20 years I am aware of several Lobi, who have compelted Geology Degrees...so things do change, but often slowly.

best

the Gnome

With you WhiteNight. Some good news for Oz ...IF Biden makes it to the elections (LOL)
"Biden has big, ambitious plans, he wants to spend $US2 trillion in the green energy space which is good news for a bunch of Australian companies."

I am worried about hanging onto too much money. Money is a transaction convenience, and thats fast becoming a thing of the past. As an "assett" it has devalued every year for decades, one of the most predictable outcomes evry year. Bankable prediction, one of the very few in fact (and you certainly dont want to have too much money int he bank, LOL). If you define an asset as something which holds or inccreases its value or purchasing power, then money is not an asset, its a liability, pure and simple. Good investment sens eif to increase assets and decrease liabilities.

Quick review of the US$. Since early February 2002, the U.S. dollar has depreciated nearly 31 percent on a trade-weighted basis against the currencies of the major industrialized countries and has also depreciated more than 6 percent on a similar basis against the currencies of key developing countries. On a real basis - that is, after controlling for the effects of domestic and foreign inflation - the dollar has depreciated nearly 26 percent against the major industrialized countries' currencies and almost 7 percent against the key developing countries' currencies.
A $100 bill in 1913 would have represented a typical U.S. monthly wage and would have had a spending power equivalence of at least $2,500 in 2017 dollars, and sliding...

Hmmm...transaction convenience (now very dated), and a liability.

Now good old gold ...? Long term? stuffed $100 worth of gold (or 4.84 oz of gold) which would have been worth about $6,000 in 2017 and us$9,200 now. Nice increase in purchasing power.

If we look instead over the 15 years from 2005 to 2020, the price of gold has increased by 330%, roughly the same as the 30 year. Over the same period, the DJIA increased by only 153%
So, over the longer term, stocks seem to outperform gold by about 3-to-1, but over shorter time horizons, gold may win out. Indeed, if we go way back to the 1920s through today, stocks blow gold away.

But going forward on stocks, the big gains are in the tech space, and the p/e's here are sobering to say the least. The moats on these stocks is not that great, and not only is the moat under attack by competition, but also by regulators. The latter I would greatly encourage as they are simply too powerful, and largely play against the benefit of society (at best highly questionable benefits)
https://www.barrons.com/articles/facebook-google-and-apple-face-real-regulatory-risk-from-the-ftc-and-themselves-51581717358

Google has attacked a new Australian law forcing tech giants to pay local news outlets - saying it could threaten search services in the country.In an open letter, the firm warned that its YouTube and Search features could be "dramatically worse" if new

What a day! Benchmark oil to $US38 a barrel handle, gold below $US1900 an ounce. The Aussie shed 1.2 per cent. People waiting more than a month to see a psychologist due to a spike in COVID-related mental health issues that have forced providers to close their books.

Th covid managment flow on is starting to washout onto the balance sheets (only so much you can hide from prying eyes). ANZ (big 4) bank profit down a massive 42%, virus related impairment charges, and no doubt worse will come.
The latest #COVID outbreak means less robust Q4 economic activity--including higher risk of double-dip recessions for several European economies, and why not we having the second wave of the virus?. Big question for #investors for any dip day: strength of the [buy the dip] conditioning

Near-vertical increases in new cases and rising test positivity rates in Western Europe poised to trigger lockdowns in France and Germany. Even going to shut the bars in Germany, so heading for social unrest? France shut its wine bars on Oct 5... The situation is particularly poor in Belgium, Czech Republic.

Cases and positive test rates also are surging in the US, Total Cost of Federal Campaigns Nears $14 Billion, Shattering Records and a lot of concepts of democracy (?!). Biden's pacing himself, and seriously looks like he has not got the energy to perform at th top level. The speculation is rife on what happens if Trump loses "The risk of a seriously disputed election depends in part on the preliminary returns available on election night, as well as the willingness of gerrymandered state legislatures to consider repudiating the popular vote, and the degree to which there develop genuine problems to fight over in court, or the ability to generate perceived problems that would give state legislatures cover for taking matters into their own hands."
https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2719&context=luclj
Uncertainty to the max?
Six of the Dow's 30 components were down at least 4 per cent and Microsoft, even after reporting solid third quarter results the previous day, fell 5.1 per cent !
Predict a share price in the future?
It takes the mind off the guerilla in the room, Deutsche Bank, teetering day to day in the back ground, and not part of polite conversations. It could never happen ...

Like the dip in CEY

best
the Gnome

Deutsche Bank, Europe’s second-largest bank, the biggest bank in Germany, and one of the world’s ten largest banks by assets, and of course THE bank for derivatives trading, is in huge trouble.
And of course, this matters: The International Monetary Fund was the first to warn about it as being “the largest net contributor to systemic risks” to the global financial system. When (not if?) Deutsche Bank Collapse will happen, the rest of the global financial system will shake to its very foundation
There’s a simple rule When it comes down to Banking trouble: The louder politicians insists on TV that everything is just fine, the bigger the problem really is.
It’s terrible enough that a government minister should feel the need to say anything at all, so when he does, you know it’s a red flashing sign.
So what’s wrong with Deutsche Bank?
Well, everything is wrong with Deutsche bank. It is coping with adapting to a changed competitive situation where its business model and cost structure no longer make sense. Not to mention that tightened regulations have made the banking industry a nightmare of rules.

And as reported by the Financial Times, Deutsche Bank is facing a mind-boggling number (7,000) regulatory actions and lawsuits. Deutsche Bank is the most important domino in European's very shaky financial system. Loss of confidence in financial institutions can happen in hours, and once it’s gone, there’s virtually no way (other than a bailout) to get it back (rumour is it is being bailed out daily, and this has been going on for a while?). The Deutsche Bank situation generally is a serious concern, because we’ve seen what happens when a major global financial institution goes bust, and it did turn into a devastating stock market crash.

When Lehman failed, it nearly took down the entire financial system with it. Deutsche Bank is of similar scale and importance (you might argue it’s actually more substantial, though I think at that point it’s basically irrelevant - if you’re big enough to bring down the entire financial system, then you’re large enough. When Deutsche Bank Collapse will happen , at least in the same way that Lehman failed, then every other financial institution will face the same questions and economic collapse will hit the world.
If Deutsche Bank collapses, it will cause the entire EU to implode.
And if this happens, prepare for economic collapse, the likes of which this world has never seen.
So can Deutsche Bank be the next Lehman?
The Bankers of the world ar trying frantically to avoid this, but their efforts maynot be enough...
Key Takeaways. An over the counter (OTC) derivative is a financial contract that is arranged between two counterparties but with minimal intermediation or regulation. OTC derivatives do not have standardized terms and they are not listed on an asset exchange.
Rather build my investments in gold, than a very flawed, fragile banking system, loaded with derivatives (who knows not where...)
the

Cowachin

Here's a rough take, perhaps too rough for most....

As a ~1m share holder, let me share some frank views, apologies for repetition!

The Sukari geological gold asset are outstanding, and therefore I invested. The previous board and previous management were not impressive, rather opportunistic, and I have done well. I expect to continue doing well obviously. Timing is key

The discussion just revealed in the interviews, QandA (etc) are much aligned with my view and adopt a strategy and action plan which I feel comfortable with. There is technical depth and reality in what they propose, and I suspect that they under promise and over deliver, but let’s see. So the day traders (I am not) … watch this carefully.

The previous strategy and plans were not of interest to me. Their assumptions and behaviours were predictable and let’s say “flamboyant”, over promise and under deliver? and they were what they were and are now exposed. The ore is in the ground delivered, to be polite.

Opportunistic mining (high grading?) will end in tears. Does every time, clue is to get out before the tears start rolling. Or wait for reality to catch up.

Interested in some of the more sensible comments on West Africa (remarkably few from previous mngt) There are real hints here. They have done well in terms of acquisition/discovery costs per ounce. No value in SP? They are in one of the most fertile gold provinces on the planet. They are diversifying geographic risk. They need the right management and right operational staff to make a go of this, and if they do, this could be spectacular (see B2Gold into Mali). The previous staff were not the right people,

My guesses are
1. Batie West will not be a Centamin ore body, but will be divested into a situation which will deliver risk free, free cash flow.
2. The Cote D’Voire assets will form a mining operation which will be attractive to Centamin use of capital.
3. Centamin will establish a significant free cash flow operation/s in West Africa, and do very well.

That’s all from me, the new management are doing a solid job, to manage the situation they unfortunately inherited.

Good luck to all, there are a few vocal people who have no idea what they are talking about, other than they need to make a few bucks...cest la vie....

the Gold Gnome

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