Who will own GGP?7 Jun 2020 12:04
FWIW, I cannot see NCM making a play for that part of Havieron that they will not own. The 5% taking them to 75% - certainly, but the other 25% - why?
Why pay full price for 25% of Havieron when there are so many opportunities out there? They have just raised cash and invested elsewhere - yes they are still cash rich, but large companies like to have a good buffer, especially in uncertain times. NCM probably would like to get some positive cash flow feeding into their accounts from production before another big spend - but the right offering at the right price, well they would have to take it.
I think that NCM will either (a) see the JV out and look to enter other JV's with GGP...OR (b) buy the whole of GGP at a price close to FMV of the 5% plus 25% of Hav,plus a little (say USD50m as previously estimated) for the remainder of the estate.
Not sure anybody else would want GGP's 25% of Hav - too many disadvantages when you are the junior partner in a JV unless you retain a very good working relationship (which NCM and GGP evidently have).
This is what is most appealing for any consideration of a T/O - Extract from GGP website: "Following a review of regional geophysical and geochemical data over ther Paterson project approximately fifty targets were identified in the broader region, with around half in ground held by Greatland".
As ever, just an opinion... DYOR and IMHO