Member Info for Goldenbadger1

Cebo
The RNS of March 2020 confirms that a contract exists between Hurricane and Spirit where certain obligations and costs have been agreed . All the terms of said contract have not been fulfilled and the contract to my knowledge is still in play .
Hurricane therefore on receipt of a positive CPR on Lincoln or GW , could ask that it be tied back to the AM as part of the contract , 50% paid for by Spirit .
This contract clouds the waters for any Spirit sale, so i would think Centrica would wish to clean up this Outstanding issue .
Purely Speculative apart from the Existing contract ? Value ?
Happy to be corrected by our resident Legal Brain .

How about considering this :
Centrica have been trying to unload their O&G production arm Spirit and have recently stated they would like a clean sale .
With this in mind i would believe the contract with Hurricane is one of the issues on the Agenda for cleaning up and Hurricane know this .
A Settlement to tear up the existing contract should be very Beneficial for both parties and thereafter Spirit can possibly be sold to Harbour . $30m for Hurricane would be very timely .

With a true picture of cost per boe and latest audited water cut , then projections will be forthcoming .
Unravelling this ' Scheme' takes time as multi facetted , well planned but ultimately did not consider the resolve of Hurricane Shareholders , therefore Failed .

The interesting figure later this month is around the nett cost to Hurricane of a Brent Boe .
Worst case $36 boe
Best case $20 boe
Above may explain how creative accounting generated $19m to Cash December 2020 and very little since .

Can anyone confirm Kerogen still have a Shareholding of 16% ?

Good news RNS the new BOD are now communicating .
Was the $17m restructuring cost folded into the 2nd Quarter Opex at $36m it certainly looks like it .
Opex would reduce to $19m should this be the case in Q3 , more aligned to 2020 .
Should CA raise their stake to 30% this allows for a Takeover to be tabled by Crystal Amber i believe .

Yep re-checked without the once off's of last Quarter at $70 Brent and 11k production we should be throwing off FCF at $10m per month $30m per Q .
Off to the Lair .

Apologies incorrect . Long Day .

Opex Cost on the +- 1m boe produced Q2 stated in Trading statement at $36m + $4 m interest $40 boe or am i missing something ?

New BOD will be Auditing Q2 Opex costs , $36 bbl boe is High and with CB interest at $4 m included , Hurricane are at $40 cost boe .
With once off costs totalling $22m and Free cash of $7m generated on $66 boe Brent achieved hopefully those once off costs are exactly that .
With Q3 and Q4 producing around 2m boe in total, at $70 Brent we should be adding to the $134 m free cash at $30m per Quarter, therefore being around $200m free cash at year end .
As previously mentioned Opex at $36 is High , and our new BOD members will be focussed on reducing this figure to below $30 boe . How padded is this cost ?
All to play for and looking Good .

Sense i reckon production from existing Well6 ( maybe 7 ) will be around 4m boe over next 12 months .
All in Nett cost per boe should be a maximum of $30 .
Reduced BOD so lower Wage costs .
New negotiated AM cost .
Zero Restructure cost's , possible recovery of $17m
P+A complete on Lincoln .
Value of Lincoln Tie in Equipment, remember a figure 22m ?
Spirit settlement maybe ? Contract unfulfilled .
Lots of issues to finalise and mainly positive .

Should Hurricane negotiate a Good deal with AM and sign a Good hedging Deal the Discounted CB's will obviously reduce in Discount and Availability .
Prior to the Aforementioned being signed , BOD should offer the CB holders who apparently wish to trade , the following Deal .
70% of Face value , as with court case they obviously fear non repayment and having already received 30% over 4 years in interest they walk at Break even . ( $230m - 30% = $160m ) . Hurricane have $134 with Tanker due August lets say $16m to fc . $10m Discount recovered from $17m wasted at behest of Bondholders and there' s the Deal on the Table available until September 1st 2021 .
Take it or leave it and IF not take the risk of waiting and possibly non - repayment .
This i would consider a Fair offer at this point in time , with the HUGE downside risks the Old bod and CB holders put forward at the court case .
Just a Thought .

Good points All .
Having also attempted to find clarity and taking on board History (HH) and Schlemiel knowledge, would place a figure of $4-$6 per boe hedge cost . ( Happy to be corrected )Having to hold cash in Reserve and how much i would guess would be part of the negotiation .
Yes Hur could lose out on a predicted Brent Spike it's very possible . The unique situation we are in and have been in regarding a complete Shareholder wipe out, pushes my thinking to Secure the next 12 months and remove the Bond Holders . Brent below $60 again , cannot be ruled out from 3rd wave or new variant and any of many other scenario's .
On a Total cost to company of +-$30 boe and a Hedge at $70 for 10k we ride out the next 12 months and use the time to Review , Plan and Negotiate .
With a sound Hedging agreement we should still have room to buy Discounted CB'S .

Homework :
What would a 12 month hedge on 10,000 boe at $70 for 12 months , cost per boe ?

Also our Interest for 12 months = $16,000,000 so producing around 4,000,000 boe this year would mean that $4 per boe is interest .
With operating costs around $17 boe a nett cost to company of $27 boe should indeed cover all expenditure ( excluding any planned capex ) .
No room left on Back of Fag packet .

Net Profit : Hurricane is very interesting with Maris slipping up in Jan 2021, announcing Free cash had increased in December 2020 from end of November 2020 by $19m . Just one month and yes production was Higher although Brent at $50 boe . Maris had his ears pulled for this unscripted comment . Would be very interested to know the numbers behind that Spectacular month and maybe replicate .
As previously stated $10m+- is being added to fc on a monthly basis ignoring any shenanigans .
Lower production Ave 10k boepd at $70 . Cost boe all inclusive $27 boe net $43 boe .
Should deliver next 12 months $155m to add to $134 m . With Oil moving + $73 now is the time for Hedging at $70 . ( yes i know senseman)
Bonus : Buy back as many Bonds as possible at a Discount and secure AM for 12 months on a win win basis ( as we need each other) .
Also as stated by many Posters , recover unauthorised Expenditure of $17m .
We are now moving in the Right Direction so Good weekend All .

Sense
Pmo a very interesting and costly lesson on many fronts . As well as the Hedging issue , the issue of Undeclared shorts that were deliberately used to undermine the Share price were a significant problem . ARCM a Far East based outfit were found guilty of the Aforementioned and received a slap on the wrist from the FCA . PMO are now History along with many PI's funds , bought out for a Song .
Hurricane Shareholders i believe thwarted a similar Plan , Thank goodness .
On the issue of Hedging , i suppose that is why we pay our BOD lot's of money to make those very difficult calls on behalf of Shareholders .
Maybe the Middle ground as insurance 6,000 boe . Hedge .

Senseman , i know you are against a Hurricane Hedge .
After this Weeks temporary Brent collapse , we are at High risk .
Having lost spectacularly on PMO and a great part of their Demise being attributed to poor or little Hedging , i am again Advocating a Hurricane Hedge at $70 for 8,000 boepd of Production. This to reduce risk purely to managing production and removing Bond financial risk . This proposed Hedge is totally dependant on Brent seeing $75+ again soon .
As you stated quite correctly the Hedge will cost .
Should Brent drop to - $65 the Financial impact without the Hedge, could be Terminal for Hurricane . With the CB Vultures circling Number 1 priority as discussed with most holders is the removal of the CB 's .

fang yes i remember in Agreement it does state after August 2020, CB's can only be purchased in totality . Although during court case , i think a contradiction to this was raised .
Dflynch is very well read on this subject maybe confirmation if around on chat .
We also discussed the 'No Brainer' being conducted through a 3rd party , legally of course .
Just a thought, Shareholders go down the Discounted Bond route, spend $17m on $34 m CB's and we square the Circle .
Surely Shareholders do not require Bondholder approval ? Karma .

The Books were cleaned up and took account of quite a few exceptional costs during H1 . Back of a fag packet calculation with Brent + $70 boe , Hurricane will be adding to Free Cash at around $10m per month .
Providing no more negative Surprises ($17m ) we should be sitting with $250m by July 2022 .
Hedging at $70 should be considered , to ensure the Bond Holders are removed and focus can be on Production and plans ........... post July 2022 .