Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
No sane company is going to tank their share price short term for a farm in later on.
So maybe you are right.
Started 20th December, 45 days is Tuesday.
If they were drilling straight through, finding nothing and therefore doing no testing, they can drill up to 300m a day.
Bigsi You are referencing fold A (but you know that) the Fold B chances of success COS are 26,23 & 35%, they are not commercial percentages because they do not cover the cost of extraction or current oil prices in these reports. How ever as the low case discovery levels are 400mmb and BPC have said 200mmb is commercial then it should be commercial.
Here is the Moyes report link for A COMPETENT person’s report..
https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2017/06/07132506/bahamas_petroleum_company_plc_-_cpr_july_revision.pdf
Rockhopper cost of extraction is far greater due to depth and position. Not sure what the minimum price of oil is needed to extract profitably in the Falklands basin, it used to be quoted at $80 dollars, it may be less now but due to the relatively small field size and the aforementioned factors it is a bad comparison with BPC. Although the share price did go £5 plus, not sure what the max Mcap was though.
How very mature and non whining of you. “Immature”...”shut up”...please..I don’t know how one post is whining, it’s disagreeing.
I won’t respond again and clog this board up with any more drivel. We don’t need reminding several times a day of our opportunity to give some random gifts to random people. Save secret Santa for someone you know and don’t like.
Please stop posting this ill thought out sanctimonious nonsense. I’m sure most of the crew earn more than many shareholders and a large proportion of Bahamians.
Many charity & gifting options this is not one of them.
You are as bad as Irene just an opposite.
Time for a discussion on share price, including enterprise value.
Currently I feel we are held back by legal/spudding uncertainty and feel the share price is likely to rise post spud more than pre.
Let’s assume the Investec 700m barrel point and look at success & failure.
Assuming say 25% COS you might approximate 1/4 of 39p or 9.25p as where the market would put this at drilling. I would also suggest you may want to halve this for the market assumed 3/4 chance of failure.
At this level you are potentially looking at circa 10-1 on a 4-1 chance which makes it a buy.
The Investec 700m barrel price of 39p has no enterprise value to it. What I mean by this is a discovery substantially rerates the COS for the other targets and of course makes the other licence applications much more attractive. Notably our farm out position massively strengthens as does the ability to raise money at a higher level.
Based on this and the potential for the share price to underperform on the way into a drill, I believe it can outperform on a discovery and would not be surprised to see the additional enterprise value of a discovery to take the share price to say 50p.
After that of course there is the potential to invest the money in other licences and go up, or go down.
Worth looking into the history of other companies post discovery, such as RKH etc as it’s not always just an upwards trajectory.
On Perseverence failure (6 or more epoch targets) then I would expect the share price to be oversold and would consider getting back in after the dust settled. Where the share price would go is hard to say, however my gut feeling is sub 1p and possibly a historical/hysterical new low.
Not sure if this has been posted before:
https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/12/04110937/Perseverance-1-FACTS-Presentation.pdf
If you check out this tweet the presentation front page is very interesting:
https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1331154408231596032