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I am really hopeful that CA are holding off from taking action is that the negotiations give them sufficient confidence to pause. I think the tax credits are the real kicker here. The EPL has made production profit pretty scant as most major players no longer have confidence in the North Sea and have decided to cut investment. I am sure a likely Labour Government will only take harsher measures. So the Tax allowances are pretty valuable to make fields reasonably profitable. I still feel that Harbour is the front runner as they have allocated $400m (non EPL) tax liability for 2023, and a sure way of mitigating that would be to buy HUR and utilise what $250m conservatively at a pretty decent discount (say 70%).

I am sure this is the case for Crystal Amber, but I am really hoping that the reason for holding off calling an EGM is that negotiations and sale negotiations are attractive and inspire sufficient confidence to give a bit more time.

Thats an interesting and possibly moot point. I re read the RNS and its a bit wholly, mentions proposals and then not knowing levels of bids. But I suspect pedantics. It is the level of complexity, firstly the conditions etc... and then the competition between the potential purchasers. But the point I was trying to make was that the outcome of the "process" can,t be far away.

I am sure Stifel and the board, ( with the background pressure of CA), will have a deadline in mind for bids to be submitted. D/D can only go on for so long! The positive is that the share is being de risked every day with cash balance so although frustrating in lack of news, there is no impact on production.

So Stifel will be pushed at some point to get the various interested parties to put up or shut up! The D/D would be relatively straightforward with just one interested party, but with multiple there will be a range of priorities and sensitivities. We must be near the final stages of that process , the good news is that it has allowed for one more offload and circa $145m in the bank beginning of March. The complxity will also be how deals are structured. The RNS stated that all proposals heavily conditional but also structured. That latter element will be interesting. Say 10p immediately and 2p deferred, payable once a certain number of lifts have taken place. But we must be close now, and for CA to be holding off there must be a reason.

Haggis, couldn,t agree more. The plus in the FSP is that Maris really doesn,t play a part. It is Stieffel that are acting as agents and providing the negotiating link, which is their expertise. The FSP allows for complete openness which is a dream to a potential purchaser.

Its a frustraing time to say the least. We are in the dark and the ship seems water tight in terms of whispers. We Dont know how may bidders there are , nor the price and conditions attached. What we Do know is that there are Multiple bidders which to me suggest greater than 4, as a specific term. We know that 7.7p was rejected by management. We know that since the early speculative offer there will shortly have been 2 offloads amounting to circa 2p in additional cash equivalent. We know that Management, in response to CA's EGM threat that the early negotiations and proposals had gained "traction", which again to me indicates that the price is not far off acceptable , it is a matter of dealing with the conditions. The recent replies to PI' emails indicates that the negotiation process is still ongoing some 4 weeks later and that CA, by not going ahead with artifical re submission deadline on Monday, indicates that they believe the negotiations have legs, enough to give more time. My view FWIW is that it is the level of tax credit that is in the melting pot , I have a gut feeling that due to multiple interested credible parties that we may be pleasantly surprised at the outcome. I cannot imagine we will have long to wait.

Yes tiny volumes and only direction of travel is sideways and down! Its really to be expected given HUR's toxic history.
The FSP is still in play and we have had no information to contradict this. CA have given an artificial notice period when their patience will evaporate as at today. Due to board representation they will know exactly the state of play re FSP. If there is no prospect of an acceptable offer we should hear in the next day or so with resubmission of EGM. I would genuinely be very surprised if there are no realistic offers as HUR presents an very tidy entity to take over, cut overheads and pick up the acerage and the very valuable tax credits. HUR should have circa $145m in the bank shortly with imminent offload. We also know that there are multiple potential bidders and the negotiation process will take longer than one simple bidder. Hopefully that means competition , but CA aren,t niave and will not keep holding off unless there is a very good reason.

There is no RNS from Crystal Amber saying that the 6th February is a deadline. However a grown up view may be that if No resubmission takes place on Monday , a date that CA did not I believe pick out of thin air, " like lets give this three weeks and see how things go!". It made a credible announcement NOT to resubmit before 6th February. Why did it make the announcement? As a grown up maybe we can infer that it was giving management a heads up that it was unhappy with progress and believed, having NED's on the board and hence having direct involvement with Steiffel and the prospect of a reasonable period to smoke out any firm offers. , that a stay of execution until the 6th was enough time. So for me Monday is a pretty important date. If we don,t hear from CA I will assume that negotiations are moving in the right direction and Crystal Amber are prepared to allow a bit more time. Thatsmy take anyway. But yes no definitive date!!

I think it will be really interesting what happens on Monday. If CA with its NED appointments on the HUR board and hence knowledge of FSP negotiations announces a further postponment of Emergency meeting request , intimating that enough progeress has been made to instil confidence that offers are reasonable and need consideration within a reasonable timescale. Or that no such offers are anywhere near timing nor such a level to warrant a further postponement. We shall see!

Steve and Kooba have read my mind on the other board. I think a possible scenario may be a bidder offering part cash and paper to buy HUR. Then using the future cash flows from HUR to buy back the issued shares. The term "Conditionality", in HUR's RNS re offers may work both ways, Conditions asked of HUR but also conditions such as paper being made by an aquiror. The key has always been for me is how much are the tax credits worth to a purchaser. ? The advantage is that they aren,t market dependent and attract no CGT. Ofcourse there needs to be a quantum of how large the avaliable losses are but They are significant compared to HUR's market cap. I never take what Malcy says seriously, got fingers burnt with Sound!!! I believe there will be significant interest HUR is a really tidy project with liabilities ringfenced . It is simply a matter of price not the level of interest.

By the way I,m not saying HUR would make $300m its simply a comparable to the allowances. Would have been $100m if the tax allowances had been circa that level!

Unless I am mistaken the tax credits have a double advantage to a purchaser, as they are not taxable. Let me give you an example. Say HUR makes $300m profit in 2023 from its trading. The acquiror of HUR will add that profit to their normal trading activities and pay the relevant level of corporation tax (I,m not mentioning EPL here). So 40% deducted from the $300m profit generated. Net $180m. Now if HUR has $300m (give or take) of tax allowances. The acquiror will simply apply those allowances to the groups ( and HUR's) trading profits. There is no deduction for corporation tax , so the value of the $300m is indeed $300m as opposed to $180m if it had been profit. This is why I think the tax allowances value may surprise us!

Sorry clarifying, EVEN though Production reducing at circa 100BOPD

Agree. If anything I would expect costs to remain static ( with reduced production as anticipated at 100 BOPD per month) or even marginally reduce with the company focusing on cost cutting. Key is obviously the price of Brent and fortunately that is only going one way this year!

I suspect that Kistos and Harbour and a number of others are interested in HUR even though they have recently stated that The EPL makes UK unattractive. Peversley In some ways for me the EPL and those statements make HUR even more attractive! HUR has a finite production future 18 -24 months or so. It has stated that EPL will only have very marginal (circa $5m) effect on profits. It has significant tax allowances, which can be set against 2023 profits for the aquiror. It is incredibly tidy, with all liabilities ringfenced and just simple , off the shelf production. Its value is the risk of P6 and the allowable level of tax credits. But we know that. So I would put Kistos and Harbour top of my list of acquirors togther with a couple of others, simply because they have stated they want to exit the UK and HUR will make the financial cost of that much easier. On a related tangent. Bloomberg analysts expect POO to surpass $90 by mid week.

My understanding is that the Labour policy is to the granting of any New Licences. So will theoretically make existing one's more valuable. I personally think the EPL by the current Government has done the most damage to sentiment. Hencer Harbour's decision to make redundancies and move future plans away from the North Sea. Re HUR I think timings are much shorter and regardless of which way this goes, sale or capital reduction I doubt if HUR will be around at the time of the next election!

simply

Yes Court date simple allows for distribution, the size and timing is at the companies discretion. The deadline that I am really focused upon is the one set by CA for resubmission of Requisition of EGM. They have purposfully given the HUR BOD a 3 week period of grace and will , I believe, have done so after getting a potential time line from the BOD ( and Steiffel ) as to a reasonable time period by which the company will have replied to D/D conditions/questions. Hopefully within the next 10 days or so we should start to have some indication of potential offers.

Sense. I expect that any deal would make the potential dividend postponement a condition. I also expect that any deal would be a combination of cash plus paper. So for example if 12p (simple maths I,m afraid). $300m. Say circa$150m in cash post next offload. Purchaser offers 50% cash and 50% paper. Actual cash cost zero and tax credits assist cash flow. Once a deal is agreed PI's can exit as usually shareprice settles around 1 to 2% below offer price. (maybe a tiny bit more with HUR but only marginal).