Mr Roger, I agree with you except for the last part.
"So, the ideal scenario is fab news is announced, sp rises to 15p+ and then a raise is done at between 10 and 12p and thereafter it soars to 40p+"
For any fundraising to be made @10-12p, the SP must first reach a new and sustained level of approx 20-25p, at least. Fundraising for GDR has always been at a signifcant discount of current SP. Do we see signficant news that could force SP from 5p to 25p? Yes siginificant sales. Mr Cheek said everyone is interested, they just can't understand the insturctions in English (if this is "purely" the blocking issue for sales then it's too good to be true ).
"First impressions matter, James wouldn’t have said this without having some internal evidence that it will happen. All the expected news is exciting, looking forward to hearing the details regarding FDA partners and the new go-live sites too once contracts have been finalised this month."
GDR need significant sales in order to attract further funding. Mr Cheek knows this.
Mr Cheeks reputation will be in tatters if he fails to make signficant sales in EU after saying a lack of sales was purely due to lack of translations in local languages. However, actions always speak louder than words.
Mr Mikodx, My sentiments too. Mr Cheek put his reputation stating repeatedly that sales abroad had not been made "purely" due to AIHL not being translated into local languages and he expects slaes to start now (December). If he's wrong or if sales are particularly poor (GDR estimated that the EU has a total addressable market estimate of 46.75M) , then I suspect it's the end of the road for GDR.
Sponsor? Bill gates foundation? Anyone jappen to be friends with someone over 100 years old who'd like to do a sponsored walk to pay the boards salaray and 400k a month cash burn?
Mr Chiwala: "Some of you silly billys laughed at me when I said 3p yesterday! Serves you right!"
I was wondering who would replace Starres as shameless-ramper-turned-deramper-in-chief. Enter Mr Chiwala, similar to Starres but without the brains (Chiwala sold at a huge loss after ramping, Starres claimed he made 6% profit before morphing into deramper).
"Director dealing RNS probably today."
You don't land a 300k CEO salary by being naive enough to buy shares whilst urgently trying to find an ii who's prepared to agree on a placement deal whilst RF are still involved in the background. If Mr Cheek finds 12 months funding before end of Q1 hen he's earned his salary imo, regardless of the SP. Directors will undoubtedly buy shares at the placement deal price, assuming they manage to find an ii willing to make a deal.
Lol. Next chapter "Tax reduction: How to turn 100k into 1k"
"My target is now 23p and I am out for good."
Last month, when sp was 10p your target was 16p. then 123p when sp was 8p and now sp is 5p your target is 23p. Just sell now.
"There is no doubt Genedrive will at long last have sales, this month, and more and more babies will have their hearing saved."
They should give AIHL away for free.
"Why would the NHS or anyone else start changing ways of working and behaviours to incorporate something that is at risk of a short shelf life? "
it already has... in greater manchester, albeit goodwill by GDR ie non-profit agreement (otherwise sales and revenue would've been published).
The other thing about AIHL si that GDR estimate the UK market to be a meer 8.5Million. That's the best case scenario and that's gross not net profit or after tax etc. GDR need EU and USA to adopt AIHL and yet it'll take 3 years of data collection before NICE will give AIHL full approval (whereby NHS trusts are funded and obligated to buy AIHL).
Revenues are paltry and will be paltry for a long time to come which is why funding , and long term funding at that, not mouth-to-mouth funding (annually or less).
Russ Shaw stated that we have £1mil in cash (as of 23rd November), and £300k due from RF (Our 3rd Drawdown)
At running costs of £400k/month – This money will last until c. Mid March 2024
1.3M
running costs 0.4M/month 1.3/0.4 = 3.25 months ie 3 months and 1 week which lasts until c. end of February, perhaps less due to energy bills in winter being higher than in summer!
expecting another 1M tax credit extends GDR another 2.5 months to mid-may 2024.
5 months tax credit @ approx 8/12k per month = anotther 800k. but no idea when this is received.
Same for drawdowns..
So based on facts as they stand AND ASSUMING PROMPT TRANSFER OF 0.2m + 0.8m CREDIT GDR CAN HIOLD OUT FOR GOOD NEWS UNTIL MID MAY.
But thats the worst case scenario.
Actions speak louder than words. CEO Mr Cheek does not consider it a smart move to invest his personal wealth in GDR, at least at the time of writing.
Mr Budd was the same.
Lack of personal investment of the new CEO means he knows GDR are not there yet.
I see 300k drawdown as a positive though in that RF believe they CAN sell.
I wonder whether this means GDR can afford a christmas party this year or perhaps the christmas party budget is priced in the 400k monthly cash burn.
The RNS covers results up to end of June so they wouldn't have to mentioned the surprising RF drawdown. There is a reason you wouldnt want to mention drawdowns - it means RF have more shares to sell, pushing SP further south.
CEO realises he has until end of 1Q24 to find funding. He's convinced RF to allow GDR to drawdown another 300k. That's impressive imo. However will drawdowns continue? I think that's now a monthly negotiation otherwise the CFO would not have stated funding is needed before end of 1Q24 otherwise GDR as a going concern will end.
People saying yesterday that there were more buys and sells during the day. This suggests an iceberg sell order... and now we see a massive trade of 2 million shares which probably accounts for the imbalance ie it was a sell, also the price of 6p suggests it was a sell order.
2 million shares dumped at 6p is a real slap in the face for the new CEO and his presentation. They obviously are not impressed with the carrot and realise that in the best case scenario dilutions will take place, starting with RF.
Mr JimmiHendrix,
Thanks for the info . It will be interesting to see whether the latest drawdown is a one-off or a restart of drawdowns.
imo it's the most positive news from todays as it suggests RF is expecting an upturn in SP
.
"whereas international revenues are dependent on product registration and language translation, which has been achieved post year end in six countries."
"The reason I post my calculations/numbers is that they are my reasons for investing in Our GDR."
Mr BigAl67, Regardless of what people think of the accuracy of numbers and calculations, this is a perfect DYOR answer. I too think your answer is wrong but I respect your workings and assumptions, they are your own. Few people would share their workings. All the best and good luck.