Member Info for Globex

The worst part is that of £320m Ingenuity revenue, £248m of it comes from THG themselves. So they are customers of themselves. Strip out the double counting and just £71.2m of Ingenuity revenue comes from a legitimate external source.

This is my big concern over the long term with these US miners, the electricity cost will only become more uneconomic over time (arguably we're already at that point), meanwhile political pressure from grid overuse and environmental impact will start building at somepoint.

Binance have singlehandedly made huge inroads with mining and I'm sure their rigs are based mostly in and around China. Even if crypto is a big legal grey area there, it's pretty ideal with a stable supply and low cost electricity, plus fewer f-cks given about the environment, really is an open goal for the far east to dominate.

As well as killer viruses those also UEFA Euro years, the plot thickens.

I can see the halving itself being a bit of a damp squib but soon after momentum starting to properly build. 2017 and 2021 were so epic for crypto generally, big believer in the cycle so by 2025 we should see some good mania.

As nice as it would be to have a competitive option in the UK, realistically when this is perpetually loss making with no sign of that changing you have to wonder if there's any point them carrying on. While fabs in Asia go from strength to strength sadly this is now only being kept alive by shareholder cash. Might as well shut the doors really.

If you think the semi-conductor industry is cratering it's hard to take you seriously.

The excuses about a semi-conductor downturn no longer make any sense when apart from IQE the industry is absolutely booming

I'm sure he's been artificially inflating BNB from the beginning, the market cap is insane. So wouldn't mind at all if it crashed and burned but hope he hasn't been using customer funds to do it as that would spread quite a bit of wider panic.

That equity to market cap ratio isn't as unusual as you think, Tandem and Asos at a similar ratio, UK retailers are just unloved. Do agree it's cheap but book value here somewhat flattered by intangibles, NAV more useful as strips out the more subjective eg acquisition assets that management may be valuing too generously.

This would be a good time for btc to crank into gear and market would soon forgive everything. Drop seemed overdone to such extent wonder if it's more market reflecting on what move reveals about Mara's wider strategy, and no longer necessarily being balls to the wall growth at any cost.

For me though Mara's biggest liability by far slashed massively can only be a good thing. More shares in issue not ideal for us existing holders as CB says, but if I came across the company for the first time today I'd not really care about that and simply see $400m less debt.

The fall seems way overdone to me. Maybe market doesn't like fact that if they have to take on more debt in future it will be at a far higher rate than the 2021 low on these notes given central bank rates have skyrocketed since?

Balance sheet resilience was always one of Mara's question marks and this eliminates so much debt can't be a bad thing imo. Ideally they wouldn't be diluting at these levels, but then again further into the bull the notes presumably would have started trading closer to par and would have become more expensive to pay off.

"Other than their HODL I don't see any appeal with HUT. Another zombie miner."

But their hodl is their USP, can't really be separated out. Otherwise it's a bit like saying you don't see any appeal in CLSK apart from their mining power.

I'm not convinced on the merger though. Not so much because of breakup fee, it's less than 2% of market cap and we see bigger intraday swings than that. More because of how unproven the entity they're merging with is. They're making lots of noise about a merger of equals when on paper it looks like Hut themselves are far more valuable.

I'd far prefer they'd go out and buy fresh hardware themselves using the ATM program rather than giving away half the company for already depreciated hardware. So no biggie if it fails, but if it goes through at least they have a new narrative to present to market about expanding EH.

Had to stop watching that hut vid after about 10 seconds, jeez she's either high or trying too hard to be quirky. It looked more like an amateur tiktok beauty tutorial than something put out by a publicly traded $0.5b company. What a clanger. Maybe PW is a consultant after all!

Btw I wouldn't be surprised to see more consolidation happening as mining economics are stretched by halving. Imagine for example a Hut post merger (with 5.6-7 EH) then merging with CLSK. With hodl + EH both covered would surely then be a Riot killer valuation wise.

Steady on surely nobody else in this space can take the Peter Wall crown for incompetence. Maybe if they lost the keys to the hodl or something.

I think of it largely as a balance sheet play. In a disaster scenario if CLSK for example had to liquidate and shut the doors tomorrow they'd be left with a whole load of depreciating hardware and not much else. So for me Hut makes sense slotted alongside other miners expanding with more urgency but diluting or taking on debt to get there.

Different perspective on Hut8: think of it as a pretty good btc proxy rather than a pure miner. No other miner apart from Riot or Mara comes close to the number of btc they hold. They're also arguably a bit more diversified than others as they're pivoting so that mining is only part of their offering.

Their current mining numbers are weak but if they weren't the market cap would be far greater, so if they can expand EH (as proposed with this merger) there's opportunity for growth that isn't necessarily priced in - largely because of uncertainties around that merger (voting hasn't even been completed yet).

Having said all that if you can only hold one miner avoid it and go for one that's expanding EH more aggressively because into the halving - and with these difficulty increases - we're truly down to survival of the fittest. Still imo Hut8 is a good one to diversify as a counterweight alongside the likes of Mara, CLSK or CIFR.

Incidentally their altcoin valuations are questionable at best - eg how can 17x Solana be fair valued at $6000? Come year end auditors surely won't sign off nonsense like that.

Non-core assets could also be the altcoins they're holding, it's madness they haven't already liquidated those while they

continue to sell btc. Bin the sh*tcoins first surely, but they actually seem to be actively buying some. Since FY we have LAYR and ASTRA appear which both appear to be highly speculative projects.

Total value for alts only around £1m but that's still £1m btc they could hold.

Agree that this fell way oversold, easy to say in hindsight but this isn't one of those posts, I also posted about this representing value when I bought after the mega drop. Cash on a par with mcap alone a clear signal it had reached a silly low. The company had a lot of critics on here, some of whom understandably a bit cross they bought in too early but personally it's been very good to me.

I've exited on basis now it's more than bagged from the low so momentum has to fade at somepoint, but will keep a watch. Still believe it looks primed for M&A, whether MBO or by larger firm like Keyword Studios. With industry in a downturn cycle consolidation logical next step.

From July peak to Aug low Argo fell by ~49%, Mara fell by ~43%.

By all means make the investment case for Argo (and best of luck with that), but trying to compare to Mara is pretty ambitious, especially if you're being misleading with the numbers. Mara is up 240% year to date so it's to be expected it will be more volatile in a cherry picked timeframe.

Does look like some eye watering miner movements ahead come 2:30, should be lively. Mulling that old debate to either catch that falling knife or await reversal, in short term crypto as unpredictable as ever but when true fear hits normally best time to accumulate.