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Not as positive as I would have expected at this stage.
The issue of false positives is identified as a significant issue.
Essential reading I think to get a rounded view of Guardian effectiveness.
Perhaps this explains why Guardian is not expanding as quickly as some might expect given we have 15 distributors worldwide. (notwithstanding the Shell contract)
False positives were also cited in the Canadian Logging study posted a couple of days ago - though that was from 2020.
.........Conclusions The overall results of this research demonstrated that the technology identified and anecdotally may have prevented some distraction or fatigue related crashes. Certainly, an incident shared in one case by a driver involved suggested such a crash. However, the results of this research project highlighted by far the largest challenge associated with the technology is the extremely high proportion of false positive alerts. There are a number of potential implications of the high proportions of false positives. Firstly, despite a range of in-cabin alerts being false positives, in-cabin alerts are still triggered as an alert (sound/vibration) to the driver, which can have an effect on driver attitude and behaviour. Secondly, the in-cabin alerts, alerting the driver to a type of incident if false, has the potential to undermine the acceptability of the technology as a valid driver monitoring system. in many participating organisations and certainly across the sample as a whole, there is little evidence demonstrating a reduction in events and particularly no decreases in false positive fatigue events One key point of interest for future adoption of technologies by organisations is the potential resource implications associated with monitoring and managing technology identified fatigue and distraction events. Organisations considering the use of technology need to ensure adequate resources, along with risk management processes that can be implemented immediately to guard against data evidence and potential failure to address the real time issue and management of risk....
Just because SEE is part of the software stack in snap 4 does not automatically mean the oem will use our DMS. But certainly putsSEE in pole position with these OEMs for the specific models. SEE may well not know yet contractually if they are quids in. All this negative comment about their RNS makes them sound like morons which they clearly are not imo. Terrible news about Redindi....
Just because they said it does not make it true.
They have said in repeated RNS that things will happen in "the near term". But the next RNS either ignores the previous timeline or introduces some new wrinkle.
All may be absolutely kosher and they are rolling with the changing/increasing opportunities.
However all mining projects (especially in Africa) need to be treated with caution until the coal/metal actually starts being produced and sold.
I think this is a great risk/reward play but it is all still in the balance - imho.
They are certainly not backward about coming forward.....such a difference from SEE......
If it weren't for Qualcomm it feels like SEE SP would still be about 6p.
Let's hope they live up to or exceed their own hype.
"Since its launch at CES in January 2020, Snapdragon Ride Platform has steadily gained momentum with global automakers and Tier 1 suppliers worldwide. But with the announcement of an expanded product roadmap at our Automotive Redefined: Technology Showcase event on January 26, 2021, Snapdragon Ride is not only one of the automotive industry’s most advanced, scalable and fully customizable ADAS platforms available—it’s a revolution."
1/ What are the current volume constraints ? - Production and Installation.
2/ What are your plans to eliminate these constraints ?
3/ When is Generation 3 due for release ?
4/ What significant improvements will it bring?
5/ What exactly is your understanding of the Regulatory framework and timetable for DMS in commercial vehicles in a/ Europe, b/ USA, c/ Other
6/ What progress has been made in getting Guardian factory-installed by OEMs ?
7/ When might we see the first of these (Factory - installed Guardian) hit the road.
8/ Do you anticipate decoupling Hardware Sale/installation from Monitoring in the future?
9/ Or will DMS (Occula) be extended to Commercial Vehicles for DMS whilst Guardian remains a Monitoring solution?
10/ Who are the main competitors in this space ? (In your opinion)
I agree Leisurley, they seem to have a number of these non-sequiturs from one RNS to another as mentioned by another poster.
My take is the bulk samples went to the Hwange potential partner for their specific tests while smaller samples went to South Africa for generalised testing which can be used to impress other potential partners and the general market.
I expect / hope the Hwange potential partner is still in discussions.
Just imho....
Indeed Schnorrer - I just used the Cenkos number as that is the only one currently in the public domain.
All other supported numbers equally (or more) valid.
I don't believe the installed base will all have monitoring though - just the dangerous/precious cargo - hence an installation fee but not recurring revenues. All imho...
I wonder what Guardian will look like when DMS is mandated for trucks/buses ?
My guess is most will just take the DMS without monthly monitoring costs (as for cars at the moment). Those particularly concerned with safety - dangerous loads and some buses -will take the monitoring element as well - perhaps 30% just as an example.
Profits for SEE might be A$40 per installation and $20 per month Monitoring.
(I am assuming competition and volumes will reduce the Monthly monitoring fee)
So if there are 300k + installations by 2030 and say 60k installations a year at that stage then Annual Profit might be...
60k installations @ $40 = A$2.4m = STG£ 1.7m.
90k (300k x 30%) installed with monitoring A$20 per month = A$21.6m = Stg£15.5m
Total Guardian Profit 2030 STG£ 17.2m
This is not a forecast - just an effort to think about how Guardian revenues might look in the future.
Any of the numbers or logic can be changed to give wildly different results.
The critical elements to me are
1/ volumes ,
2/ Installation and Monitoring profit levels,
3/ % with full monitoring.
Guardian Licensing deals throw all this conjecture out the window but I don't think we have any visibility of what they might be at this stage.
Don't ask me how I got any of the numbers - unless stated above they are purely guesses.
All imho.
"...Everyone knows who we’re in...."
I don't think so seeing 2030.
The converted on this and a couple of other BB's, some in the Auto industry with an interest in DMS, a couple of small II's (most of whom it seems are not interested in investing just yet), a journalist and a blogger. Everyone in our bubble maybe, but definitely not "everyone".
That is why the confirmation of contracts with big auto names and big $'s are so important to break out the word to the mainstream who are spoiled for choice with small tech stocks that are apparently shooting for the stars while SEE plods along.
Doesn't take from SEE's potential but it does talk to timing of SP increase.
Just my opinion - not a fact in sight.
https://sundaymail.co.zw Afrochine Smelting.....
Hopefully relevant to Contango some day...
"....PMG has already committed to double revenues each year from 2022..."
Apologies in advance for the party-pooping. But I believe PMG has committed to "OEM" license revenue doubling each year - not all revenues.
At the moment OEM license revenues are a small part of the annual figure.
Guardian figures are very unlikely to double as the rate of increase is limited by the installation rate - 30% would be a good figure here I believe.
Alway a good chance of revenue from a left-field contract or license now as the requirement for the technology is becoming unstoppable. So perhaps Revenue will double - but not from organic growth imho.
Courtesy of "bones" on ADVFN Bulletin Board.
The EACTS presentation appears to be set for 08.42 tomorrow (Friday 15th):
https://eacts2021.process.y-congress.com/scientificProcess/Schedule/?setLng=en
Click the Friday tab, scroll to 08.15 - 09.45 session called “Searching for options to improve the aortic treatment” and head for the 08.42 item. There is a PDF of the presentation with graphic pictures of a sheep operation, should you be interested!
Or they don't have any newsflow because the big fish they are dealing with (coal) move at a glacial pace.
The Gold silence is less easily explained as this seems to be within their own control to decide how to exploit.
Brockwl,
"Recurring Revenues" as far as I can see is a term they use in the RNS but it is not used in the Accounts.
In a 31 March RNS they say ....
o Annualised Recurring Revenues including royalties of A$15.5m, representing growth
of 17.4% (H1 2020: A$13.2m)
So it includes "Royalties" - but these are not defined.
The best place to see the breakout of Revenues is in the notes to the accounts were they break out revenue between "OEM" and "Aftermarket" and also within each of those specify the revenue from Hardware/Installations, Licensing, Driver Monitoring, Non Recurring Engineering, Etc. It is generally Note 6 or Note 7.
terry, redindi, I have no wish to rain on anyone's parade - we have got some great news for SEE.
I just try, where I feel it useful to other PI's, to be as factual/accurate as possible - and not very often.