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Hi Terry - would this be Guardian or Gen 3?
"Drivers and fleet managers can also request footage for any given day and time, protecting against false accusations and insurance fraud claims."
This looks different - I thought a central tenet of Guardian was that footage was not retained ?
(Also elsewhere they talk about reporting back to head office rather than a central monitoring station. May just be salesman semantics.....)
AConcept...
Just my personal guesstimate.
Hopefully wrong but I just feel things are very tight and volumes are the big issue....perhaps the KPI's in a few days will assuage my fears.
Last week I posted the types of volumes I estimate they need to breakeven in any quarter - Cannot see it happening in calendar 2024.
Good news there is that none of the Mobileye developments over the next few years include DMS as far as I can see.
A quick look through the four future developments shows that all are focused on Exterior sensing not interior.
Does not mean they are not working on DMS but at least nothing concrete announced for now.
......based on
SP action,
Required volumes to breakeven as posted last week
And VW "Driver attention...." definition
is a placing on the way. (If not now then by Dec 24)
Just my best guess based on available evidence.
Very disappointing if so - time as always will tell - very happy to be wrong but cannot ignore the evidence.
2026 could still be blockbusters when the European ENCAP legislation lines up behind camera DMS and aviation enters production - holding for that.
We have no credible info on GEN3 progress after last year's razzmatazz so have to ignore for now.
Still a bit confused....
Rang a couple of UK VW Dealers sales departments and they all said "Advanced driver attention & drowsiness monitor" had nothing to do with Camera monitoring - more about alerting a driver to pull over during long drives etc. I'm sure you have already done the same.
So where exactly do you see DMS definitively mentioned ?
I really hope you are correct - I just can't see it.
Thanks again....
Https://www.bradysvolkswagen.ie › id4_my24
PDF
Unfortunately » "Advanced driver attention & drowsiness monitor" is a term which has been in place in VW for over 6 months. It is in the ID4 spec since January and is merely a cover term for the various sensors, Lane crossing alerts etc.
It does not definitively mean that DMS in camera mode is included.
Need to research a bit more before jumping to conclusions and adding 2 + 2 to give 5.
Https://jsd-solutions.com/work/advanced-driving-assistance/
A comment from a company who worked on the VW Mirror mounted camera.....
Maplinman,
A) you have no idea what the auto numbers will be
B) and aren't willing to make any prediction
A) is correct and therefore B) is the logical extension.....
However you missed the more important point of the post guestimating what volumes are needed for Breakeven - the first significant threshold for the company to reach from here.....
Maplinman,
A couple of days ago you were bemoaning the lack of projected numbers from other posters about SEE volumes.
So I looked back at numbers I had crunched to estimate the curves and volumes SEE gave us over the lase few presentations and the result is SEE are nowhere near their own projections. And then I thought how could I possibly know the numbers SEE will produce in future Quarters/years when four months later they can not even explain their own Q2 DMS "Disappointing" number. If they don't know what happened in the past they (or I) certainly don't know what will happen in years to come. The exercise would be a study in futility.
However there are two numbers I can estimate - how many Cars they need to add annually to break even or how many Trucks they need to add to their Guardian monitoring to breakeven. You can mess about with how many of each is likely.
In the 12 months of 2024 they made a loss of approx US $30m.
To change that to a breakeven number using US$11 DMS per vehicle and 80% Gross margin (US$8.8 margin per car) they would need to install DMS in 3.4m Per annum or 850k per Quarter more than they did in 20024 which was about 1m - so about 4.4m DMS per annum or 1.1m per quarter.
To Breakeven using Guardian (@€400 per annum monitoring) and 80% Gross Margin (US$320 Margin) they would need an additional 93,750 Guardian installations per annum or 23.5k per quarter approx.
People can play around with various combinations of the above numbers - say 2.2m DMs and
47k Guardian for example would get them to Breakeven all else being even.
But there are so many variables and the info we are getting is so opaque and generally inaccurate more detailed analysis is pretty pointless imho......
Maplinman, My point was simply that when proposing numbers of SEE DMS installations in VW in 2024 giving numbers of total VW Sales is irrelevant/misleading. A better base, equally easy to find, would be the number of VW EVS in 2023 and extrapolate from there…