Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Thanks Welloilled for your reply at 21.29.
If the Farmout agreement was concluded and the $100 million drawn down on 15-4-20 that would have needed Hope's approval . He didn't leave the board until 3 weeks later.
That would suggest that Hope was in agreement with the farm out and an deal had been done with him /Outrider and FRR...
If that was the case though the court cases would have stopped pretty promptly you would have thought but they didn't. We did get an indication that the parties were talking a few months ago and that the cases had been halted .
Thanks Welloilled.
Do when know what date the Farm Out agreement was signed ie was it signed after Hope left in May 2019 ?
Article 7 suggests this farm out is just about the oil. Gas not mentioned !
Starrage ,
Thanks.
I suppose it's possible that it has been paid now, do you have a view ?
Its very hard to believe we have seemingly got ourselves in so much of a mess legally and financially.
Trillions of TCF have been talked about for years yet we could not pay Hope $2 million in interest the employees a few million , Caymans lawyers and possibly YA.
Hope did need to go as he was blocking funding but once he was out the way I would have thought they would at least have paid the employees even if Zaza did out of his own pocket just to keep that out the press. The lawyers might not have been paid as we were not happy with their service . YA seem to have gone away , been paid or are happy to wait. Cant quite get my head around that situation .
I believe in Zaza however I dont believe in him because of his share holding . I believe he wants to do what best for the people of his country and the wealth to be shared. I think that's his main priority , it would be mine. I also believe he wants to crucify Hope and the shorters.
It's like an iceberg. 8/9th s is under water we just see and make a judgement on what we are allowed to see either with a glass half full or half empty attitude. The important points are well hidden below water atm .
If we do end up with nothing , not even 1% after spending 23 years and $580 million that's a travesty and a huge mistake management as they could have made most of our problems go away with a minute % of what value is potentially on the ground .
The ironic thing is that the least of my worries is that theres an empty box.
Our best hand might be that the GG dont want to be tied up in years more litigation because if they dont back down and Zaza even has a tiny case for litigation I'm.sure he wont hesitate to take that route.
Like I said earlier I do still believe in Zaza but that's more my personality.
Keeping the faith that we have an ace up our sleeve.
GL
Thanks R8pilot,
Something that is nagging me is it seems clear we have to pick up the arbitration bill. Why would we have to do that if we won 12 of the 14 points.
I might answer my own question here but could it be the two points we lost on were the points the arbitrators were asked to make a judgement on by the GG and the other twelve points we won were points we raised but had to pick up the bill aa we didn't bring the arbitration .
I can't quite get my head around it but it could be a reason both sides are claiming victory as both sides won the points they asked a judgement to be made on.
Hi Looed,
Thanks for the reply at 9.46
Feels like more litigation on it's way about the asset move along with the interpretation of the result of arbitration. This could go on years and years with the resource sitting in the ground, no SM buy in or out and no one making any money.
I think a compromise is best !
Morning Looed,
Ref your post of 5.14 .
Let's hope Zaza has not talked himself out of our 1%. He does seem to have infuriated the GG .
I think the fact that it was 8 days before we heard from Zaza suggests that he had time to take legal advice before making any kind of statement.
My first thought is that the GG cant decide to take 100% instead of 99% just because Zaza make a defense of his and our position.
I thought Mole had said that the move was legal in his eyes ?
That was a few days ago so I might have that wrong !
.... and they said a week was a long time in politics, try being an FRR shareholder for a day.
Yes that makes sense .
PJOHN ,
It's a discussion board with different views. It so happens that I still believe in Zaza. That does not mean I wont have a chat with Star and listen to what he has to say. I know I'm on the different side of the fence to him .
B-20 is the most dangerous poster in this BB talking elequently with knowledge of the oil and gas business but unable to back up anything they say and disappears off for weeks on end after raising hopes. I dont believe a word they say and think its sport for whoever they are.
You dont have to come on here being a keyboard warrior when someone has a different opinion to you.
Sadly that does make sense. I think about 600-800 million were offloaded Sept -Dec. The options of who the big seller was is limited . If it was Zaza and SN they held 2.7 billion between them why not keep the company trading on the stock exchange and clear a hell of alot more as they would still be left with about 2 billion on christmas eve if it was them.
Perhaps the NOMAD got wind of who the big seller was
ODR , I thought I picked up from.Moles recent postings that he had unearthed something that suggested Zaza was aligned with us still . I think he mentioned it on more than one occasion.
If I have that wrong and he only said that on the back of Zazas share holding thats no comfort to me at all anymore.
It wont be any comfort to know you were not the only one taken in .
A small comfort is Zaza did actually go through with the investor evening in October 2018 when he could of cancelled it and spoke very positively. Saying that if he was the big seller he bought another 10 weeks of selling opportunity.
Every positive has a negative here and vise versa.
Ahhh that's the confusion , I thought they were on estimates not actual sales. My mistake. Zaza spoke of train loads of oil to be sold so perhaps that's where MP s money in the bank has come from .
I dont believe at all we have much money in the bank.
Looed ,
You are probably right. As I said I would love to hear the Oopsi take on why Zaza is speaking freely in the press and doing interviews but has not spoke directly to the shareholders. There must be a reason and i was just speculating tbh.
I think most peoples worry is that as we have not been mentioned for 18 months is Zaza trying to throw is of the bus. Mole seems to have put that worry to bed as he believes he is aligned with us.
Yes I believe it's good he backed off. He spoke to Zaza on the friday then on Saturday we heard Zaza speak in the press. This could have been rushed out so the reporter could not misquoted him , just guessing.
We dont know what interference was going on behind the scenes . The paper he worked for might have been told in no uncertain terms dont publish anything that could be seen as supportive to Zaza.
The main problem is coming out of the arbitration with something. I'm sure the Hope problem is on the back burner atm . He can be dealt with if we do retain something. A deal will be done.
Why get millions in the bank that can be snatched away by Hope.
The worst case scenario is that the GG walk away with the lot and that theres $46 million in the bank to pay off Hope.
My point is I believe if the field was scaled up it could produce the figures MP spoke of or why the fight over it , however why get the field producing millions if it's just going to go on Hope's pocket ?
I can believe Madpunters figures are possible as they were based on figures released by FRR around April 2018 that now seem verified by the 5 American companies over 18 months.
I can also believe that these 5 companies worked their figures out on data provided , not by standing next to the well head for 18 months.
Just my opinion but I believe Zaza does not want to give Hope a penny let alone $46 million . I dont believe that money is in the bank at all. I believe money is tight. We heard the employees were not being paid and there was truth in that however it was blown out of proportion according to Zaza.
We heard Zaza mention 30 tcf verified by 5 American companies over 18 months . Even at the lowest sale price of $1 billion per TCF $46 million is a drop in the ocean if we have to pay it to Hope from a sale of the asset.
I believe that Madpunters figures are more than believable.
What I dont believe is that we have continued production over the last 18 months at least. Why would we continue to produce millions of dollars of oil and gas that could ultimately end up in Hope's and Outriders pocket in a scenario where they make a huge profit from this ?
I would certainly have turned the taps off.
Your welcome Looed,
Zaza must have his reasons why he has not spoke directly to us. I'm sure he has been advised legally not to do so. Perhaps Oopsi would have an idea.
If he spoke to us shareholders directly that would have to be in an official capacity as the CEO and everything he said would need to be backed up . When he speaks to the media he has more of a free hand to speak his mind , I'm just thinking out loud . I might be way off.
There is a reason though and we have to respect his handling of the communications. He obviously knows that anything he says gets back to us anyway.
Mole said he is aligned with us and we have, atm to put out trust in him .
Thanks for the reply about the Arbitrators not cancelling the PSA . They were not asked to make a call on that . The GG have taken it upon themselves to do that. The next litigation will be a challenge to the cancelling of the PSA which will take us through the election in October and hopefully a change at the top.
On another note I was in touch with the reporter Luka up until about three weeks ago when he cut contact as he had a strop apparently about what was said on the BB.
My opinion now looking back was he wanted me to give him ammunition to write an article that enabled him give a shareholders view detrimental to Zaza that he could print .
Thanks for all you do and post.
Best wishes .
Well there is no doubt that what we have discovered in Block 12 is worth fighting for.
Zaza made it clear at the last meeting in October 2018 that Super Majors had been on the scene a very long time and that they seemed only to have to cross the Ts and dot the I s.... fast forward to April 2020
Zaza seemed to communicate in one of his interviews that 5 American companies had verified 30 TCF over a period of 18 months . That's worth billions . Anything between $1 billion and $3 billion a TCF.
Any super major involvement or offer would definitely have been in the arbitration documents . That for me is why Zaza does not want to release the findings of the arbitrational panel. That would only damage our position , the SM could walk if we broke any NDA and come back with the same deal and deal with the GG and we are cut out. The GG could even sweeten any deal .
Theres no way Zaza could release snippets of the arbitration to support us. It would be an all or nothing situation . That's not going to happen.
We have spent over half a billion dollars over 23 years probably proving up billions in assets. Would the arbitrators say we deserve nothing ?
Theres no way the arbitrators would have said the GG can cancel the PSA , that's the GG going for the jugular. Could it be they have done that to force a deal with FRR ? They know further litigation would be on it's way with years more delay to any financial benefit if they dont come to the table at some point.
Its clear Zaza is aligned with us . It's his lifes work , he is a man of the people and is fighting like crazy.
This has some time to run yet. Probably past any election which is scheduled for October.
Just some layman's rambling thoughts , not in any particular order.
Thank you Looed and I'm sure everyone is delighted that Mole is back .
I miss the Puddy swingometer !
Good luck
That will be the company with 5% in ... FRCC. The company Hope has control of ...