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Part 3 ...
Sounds like Zaza knows what was said between the Secretary of State and the Georgian PM. Now thats some inside knowledge .
If the GD have been lying about the arbitration result the only thing Zaza will except (to bury the result) is a long PSA. They cant be trusted in any way, shape or form at all. It sound like they have even blocked how deep we can go in the wells and have blocked any more drilling. The percentages of area they published in the week we are allowed to retain are not even the whole areas i dont think . Then theres Zaza saying he got a letter saying the letter he got states the GD could terminate at any time. Unacceptable.
What i did find interesting was Zaza saying you don't have to have a legal mind to interpret the ruling and that anyone could understand it. Basically saying a clear lie will be easy to see.
My thoughts are that the GD gambled that Zaza would never release the result of the arbitration as it would break the terms of an NDA with a SM and any deal would fall apart. Maybe over the last 10 weeks we have been working through that problem . Along the way the GD have come out time and time again not just once or twice saying they won drawing them further into the lie they are hopefully telling making a long PSA offer their only way out with an agreement with Zaza that the result is actually buried.
Has Zaza played a blinder or is he about to get called out ? My moneys on the former...
GO to all the genuine holders. I would not give up my shares for anything.
CF ,
The main part of the arbitration was for them to decide if we had to hand back the undeveloped land. Until they decided that we had not commited a material breach. As soon as possible after the decision was reached we handed back the land. Why should we have handed the land back before they reached a decision ?
Surely Zaza has evidence of the problems caused by the GD . I believe its a huge political game now and FRR are a massive piece of the puzzle. The problems we have had will be wheeled out to give most impact as we get closer to the election date.
The opposition parties and Zaza will be saying to the people we want to share the wealth with you. They will be saying the GD want to steal it away and a handful of people benefit.
Then the Georgians will have to decide which way to vote taking everything into account.
Hi Looed - Wham
Firstly , personally i take absolutely no notice of anything we have ever heard from B -20 ( or JRjnr) . I think they are both wind up merchants who have never added anything of substance and disappear when asked the simplest of questions ie like where they have found there information from which is supposed to be out there in the public domain if you look in the right places. Total Bull ****ters ! Im acrually surprised they are given such respect.
I feel that the 99%/1% is not really important . As terrible as losing 99% sounds the value will be in the developed areas which Zaza is convinced we have retained. We might well get the 99% back if there is a change at the top on 31st October.
I do think that Zaza will not believe or accept anything that the GD say. Reading about some of the problems the GD have caused i would not either. Freezing bank accouts being one , how could we pay the employees . So many more blocks put in pur way too, VAT , trainline and tank problems cutting income to zero.
We need a change in government , if they are voted in again all the problems we have had will resurface. Zaza i believe is firmly aligned with the opposition. I believe he is a decent man and wants the weath shared around the whole pf Georgia.
Mole seems to think that the asset move is the big probmem atm. The good thing the GD have done is it publically say we can continue to work . That might be enough to get a loan or some finance over the line and to be able to pay off Hope then the asset move wont matter.
Zaza obviously believes that he can find a way through all the difficulties and that its worth doing so . I have questioned in the past if he was truly aligned with up, not anymore , i believe he is firmly aligned wirh us.
Thanks for all you do Looed. Perhaps you are one of the reasons Zaza is still fighting on . Keeping the BB alive imo has been very important.
Regards
Close to Taribani , only 16 km away
"The company can only extract oil and gas in the Dedoplistskaro" (2500sq im) ... whats that about ?
We have had a couple of loans that have not been able to be completed , i think one was for $60 million and another $150 million. Hope blocked funding while he was on the board, he has gone now. Another reason was that a lender would not have known whether the PSA was going to be cancelled so would have been reluctant to lend money.
Now we have had confirmation we have another 7 years and with Hope off the board we could be in a position to now get a loan , pay Hope off with a figure he is safisfied with and have enough to start work again as a faster rate of knots.
We also had it RNSed that Majors had been in the data room. At the investor evening Zaza said these are big boys. By now they will know if they want in or not. Maybe a big piece of the puzzle was getting the GD to agree that we can keep the developed areas for another 7 years ?
Its all about funding .
EkXoc ,
Good post !
Its also about the 202TCF of gas and Billions of barrels of oil that might eventually come out of the ground from Block 12 over the next few decades...
Arsenal ,
Oh i agree, its just another positive step. Time will tell if it means anything.
The main positive for me atm is the 9th day of not hearing from Zaza after about 10 interview in 18 days ish.
We think they want to give the 1% back . Zaza said we retained all the producing fields in the arbitration which might or might not equate to 1% , for me that has to equate to more than 1% but thats a guess .
The GD dont want Zaza going back to the media, they actually requested that.
Zaza asked them to stop the "lies" too.
There has to be a compromise here. We need a 25 year PSA, we need the asset move to be rubber stamped , or a deal with Hope which we seem to be closing in on if necessary.
News next week ? .... probably.
Excellent points there CF, would he have come out with that if they were about to **** on the company from the United States that has been the biggest investor in Georgia over the last 23 years ?
They have already said we can keep the 1% under certain conditions , they surely are working through those conditions now.
Thanks Looed , you are right. Only had tine for a quick read through before work .
Thank you Looed , very much appreciated. So thats it the last translation which is a week old now. I wonder whats been going on as Zaza was doing almost daily interviews ? Hmmm .
Well if i ran an American company, infact if i ran any western facing company ie from the UK, France, Germany no way under the current regime would i consider starting up in Georgia.
Giorgi Vashadze spoke very well. Yes he is an opposition leader however his party only got 3.45% of the votes last time and won 0-150 seats, thats the downside however his party have united with 9 other opposition parties this time around.
A grey area for me is who actually "won" the arbitration. Its mentioned in the translation that the GG lost however Frontera picked up the bill .
Its clear and is mentioned that the citizens of Georgia have a clear choice to make in the election , north or west.
I always ask myself after reading the translations am i more or less confident , im more however we need a change of government in October or whatever could be being agreed could be reversed if the GD get voted back in.
Thanks Looed,
That was a long one !
Sounded like Zaza was on form .
The question is what are these conditions ,
Could they be pay the workers, pay the arbitration bill offset against the VAT and pay the $200,000 ?
Aa i have said a couple of times 25th June was the last time Zaza spoke in public. He was doing a food three interviews a week before then. Perhaps they are talking now.
The GG need to be able to save face , we need a PSA extension , a deal can be done, do the GG want one , i think so ...
Plenty of time to hear something this week still.
Zaza last spoke publicly on 25th June i believe ?
Could be a good sign ...
MP ,
No problem at all. I just dont want people thinking i did say that as i know 1.58% has never been quoted or we would know we had been left with the Taribani as it would be too much of a coincidence.
On another note i for one am happy we have not heard from DOMFOK for a couple of days. Nothing personal however if its gone quiet perhaps the parties are talking or have a meeting arranged this week .
Exactly
MP
I have not quoted 1.58% in any calculations. I have not seen that anywhere officially and have only seen what you have. I have seen "up to 99%" and i think i have seen "nearly" 99% which suggests between 98% and 99%
HI Looed ,
Thanks for your reply at 7.34 am . It was good to see Zaza has been on at least one of the four national channels.
Im hoping for no interviews or statements for a few days from either side in the hope they crack on with a compromise.
The next news is critical .
Best wishes
Morning Looed , once again thank you for all you do.
There are 40 TV channels in Georgia, only 4 have national coverage these are Channel I, Imedi, Rustavi 2 and Ajara.
Do you know if Zaza has been on any of the above channels yet ?
Thank you .
The GD cant hang about. They need this behind them so they can crack on with the election. Each day that goes by they are damaged more as more Georgians out there become aware of the Frontera story.
They will need to save as much face as possible. The number one thing they mentioned last week was the plight of the unpaid employees. If that is top of their agenda then thats easily resolved by paying the employees. Maybe that can be done this week . They can also claim a small victory if we pay the arbitration bill ( which will be offset against the VAT ).
The ace they hold is the remaining length of the PSA.
A couple all days around a table can resolve all issues. I dont think this is as complicated as it looks.
Both parties will want this sorted and both will have to compromise .
Sorted by Friday maybe.
Morning Looed ,
I think anyone thats following this closely would have felt the same way as you and i . We want resolution, it seemed closer than ever but then took a few steps back.
We are probably all wondering what will happen next .
Will the GG immediately buckle the early part of the week , cant see that. Will Zaza keep up the daily appearances on TV and do interviews ? Perhaps he will give them a few days to contemplate the situation they are in , i hope he does. We dont want this to get personal. They wont want to lose anymore face than what they have too.
The worry is he will overplay his hand,.however we just have to trust him not too , we dont have a choice anyway.
The GG do need to get this resolved and behind them . The ball is in their court. They will know Zaza will not give up the fight . The fact they said we can keep the 1% says alot and should give us confidence.
Drawing to a conclusion by the end of this week is my conclusion .