Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Apologies yes BCM .
Tsbs,
I think the block will go back to tender and we will rebid for it. Know one knows more about Block 12 than we do. A SM wont bid for what is at the moment wasteland. imo
Thats in the ground value. Obviously it would need to have a CPR however Zaza seems to be stating the 350TCM as fact.
I also heard 30 TCF from somewhere last year , October time , i think that was Zaza too. Im guessing the 202TCF is the whole of Block 12...
350 TCM which is 12.2 TCF is more than enough for me.
Just to add we might seem to be in the driving seat however the GG will only be pushed so far , also theres less than 7 years remaining on the current PSA , thats not long enough for a SM ... we will have to cut a deal with the GG.
Taking all of the above onto account just remember i worked on the lowest figure we have seen quoted by the company and based the valuation on the lowest sale price per TCF.
350 TCM of gas if sold out 100% is worth between $1 billion and $3 billion per TCF .
The higher amount paid would be for onshore, cheap extraction costs with infastructure close by for a route to market. We have all three. So for me ww would be closer to $3 billion per TCF , , however i will work on the assumption we get $1 billion per TCF ...
That $12 billion , about 80p per share.
Will we get someone come in and buy the lot though, maybe or maybe they will buy into the project thats anyones guess. If i were a SM i would want the lot though.
..... and then theres the oil .
Zero excitement about Symores post and alot i dont agree with. Zaza and the GG are not fighting over the figures he quotes thats for sure. Looking back luckily Symore hasnt been right about anything in the past , not that i can remember anyway.
I am sticking to Zazas 350 BCM and over a Billion barrels. Thats worth fighting over.
Well what a week , in the press ... not going to go too far into it now .
The crux of it is the GG in the press are saying we can keep the 1% under certain conditions but it turns out they had not contacted Zaza over this . Its clear Zaza does not trust them at all.
I must admit i got very excited over this midweek,.however seeing Zazas rebuff yesterday initially became a bit despondent as i wanted them to get around the table and get this sorted.
On reflection from the tone of Zazas response yesterday he is oozing confidence in what he is saying obviously after taking solid legal advice and with clear USA backing.
The next response from the GG is going to be interesting ...
GL all , its been a good week
Ps thanks to Looed and DOMFOK
After reading today's Frontera statement a good few times its clear that Zaza is ultra confident in what he is stating after surely taking solid legal advice, also knowing that he has full USA backing.
What an inspired move that was replacing SN with Zaza or we could be in a different place now.
Is all the GG have their comments about the employees, certainly sounds like it !
Its clear that Zaza doesnt want to give anything further away to the GG after what they have put him (and us) through .
The next GG statement is crucial.
350 TCM , 12.2 CF ... value between $12 -$36 Billion , 1.3 billion barrels ... value between $1.3 billion and $4 billion ...
I think the thing that is annoying Zaza more than anything else is the constant claim by the GG they won.
He wont want it to seem like they did us a favour allowing us to continue !
Another point they clearly want him to stop talking politics in the media. Easily sorted , if they shut up so will he !
I think the news you dug up today Looed about the 1% is huge if true. That would be incredible and clearly see us back in the game.
Hi ,
If possible could someone please post the link on here to Pyros recording from that night as i would like to have another listen ,
Many Thanks in advance
Looed,
I agree this invite is clear and current. We should hear Zazas response in quick time.
I would like her to say the 90 day timeline no longer applies .
Just a side point , she was born in Moscow !
The Georgian Government first electoral bill reforms vote was passed 136 -5 yesterday.
The bad news is the proposal of the reforms was put forward by the GD.
other news is that the Opposition parties are uniting against the GD .
To read more the two articles where i found the above info are easily found by putting Georgian Parliamentary elections 2020 in the Google search engine.
Thanks again Looed , excellent work !
That was a tough interview for Zaza , he spoke well and replied well to every question.
Although alot of it was the same questions and answers it was great to hear absolute confirmation that we have 350 TCM (12.2 TCF) of gas and 1.3 billion barrels of oil extractable verified by the best in the business.
The value of the above is £1 a share minimum. That 1% is very valueable.
He has not quite stepped over the line saying the GD want to steal it away from the people but its clear to me what he is saying and will be to them .
Its election year as we know. The Georgians have a clear choice.
Thanks Looed, makes ssnse, best wishes ..
Thanks yet again Looed. Great idea about asking him to dig around to see what he can find.
Would he give an opinion on which way the election is going , latest polls and the feel of the country ?
Zib ,
Thanks for your reply at 17.54 yesterday. It makes sense what you say.
The next time we hear from Zaza is the crucial time. The more time passes the more likely the final award document was real.
If he comes out fighting in his next interview i believe we have a legal case as im sure he would have used the 30 day clarification period of the final award.
For me the chain of events could be ..
Restart the $3.5 Billion claim
Zaza in the press all the time shouting from the rooftops what lies underneath the ground in Georgia and the the GD want to steal it away from the people.
Change in government
deal done with the new western facing government for services rendered
Sadly the GD had a 15% lead which was growing in the last poll done in February
Personally I think there is enough in the final award to bring legal action further down the line.
The Final award didn't rule totally against us. For instance my reading is that it didn't rule with the GG on the production sharing agreement.
We need a change in government. Perhaps Zaza has been made some promises if he helps bring about that.
The Final award document is real in my opinion.
My question is who would release it and why . It seems it has been leaked by our opposition , again why , it seems clear cut we lost so why bother leaking it ?
Looed are you in the Frontera Facebook group ?
Firstly thanks Looed for all you do for us. You have kept the BB alive and relevant for the last year when other prominent posters have dropped away.
We know that we had 30 days after the arbitration award to ask for clarification. The fact that Zaza fights on speak volumes to me.
I am firmly of the opinion the GG have manipulated the award in their favour as you would expect.
Zaza seems adamant that they cant just cancel the PSA...
We fight on probably past a Georgian election so buckle in .
Oh and 350 BCM of gas is 12.3 TCF... if we can hold on to our half of that the MINIMUM sale price is $6 Billion that's without the oil ... I believe our gas is closer to being worth $2 billion a TCF or more.
By my rough calculations with 16 billion shares in issue a full sale would be about 35p a share.
Fingers crossed ...
Zaza will be aware of everything Mole has mentioned today. He will know about all the debt that's outstanding, the political issues and the arbitration findings..
Zaza clearly thinks it's worth fighting on.
It took him 8 days to do a reply to the arbitrational findings in that time he would have taken legal advice of the highest order. They would have read the 152 pages and advised him we have a case !
We seem to have good political backing , most of which we wont be aware of atm . Domfolks post earlier shows how high the USAs interest goes in Georgia and it's not because they are producing a few bottles of wine.
As for the debt , yes the oil and gas price is low atm but it will rise. Our extraction costs are low with infustruture to supply not far away. We could have a resource to last many decades .
Zaza said a while back we had 30tcf that had been verified by 5 American companies over 18 months . The minimum price per TCF is $1 billion, up to $3 billion.
If we have a $100 million debt it's a drop in the ocean if we do have 30 TCF.
Like I said at the start of this post Zaza will know about everything Mole has mentioned and he fights on ...
Sorry 15-4-19