Member Info for GingerHippo

The market has already reacted to this

In the last 3 weeks
Pt is up 3%
Pd is up 10%
Rh is up 9%

Note that Dmitry is EUA's M&A officer. Very clear that he cannot buy or sell any shares as per market abuse regulations.

That part of the RNS was appreciated, but not necessary. Anyone with a brain cell knows they can't have sold any of their shares.

"despite the current geopolitical context"

AKA, calm down, guys. We got this.

CT, that question was asked, almost word for word, in the presentation last week, and the answer given. I suggest you watch the presentation in its entirety.

You say you’re an investor here, so I’m not sure why you keep choosing to attack rather than clarify. You’re only damaging your own investment.

If you’re still not sure after watching the presentation, send them an email. They are very good at replying to such questions.

I’m not going to respond to everything you’re written these last two days (or what you’re about to write) because frankly I’m sick of going round in circles and I’d rather post less often for a while. If you still have questions, ask the company.

See you after the next RNS.

Rift, nothing goes up in a straight line, but the production trend over the last 2 years is up. When we bought AS it only produced 800 boepd.
New wells typically go down a little in their first year, so part of the decrease was expected.
Other than that there was a sudden water cut issue.
The technical business term for that is "s*** happens".
They have now resolved the issue with ESPs which will be reflected in Q2 guidance.
Further exploration coming up later this year has a very good chance of significantly increasing our production, just when oil prices are likely to be getting around $100.
Divestments.
Jamaica.
We have a lot going for us.
The only thing annoying me about the share price is that had I waited a bit I could have bought my shares for less.
But long term it isn't going to matter that much.
Time in the market is much more important than timing the market.
And if it stays this low I'll continue to buy what I can.

People saying they bought 4 years ago and they're disappointed can shut up.
We've had AS for less than two years.
They bought into a different company.

People screaming that the BoD aren't buying are also being silly.
They're in a closed period because of the the drilling campaign and the divestments.

Brian also clarified his 2000 boepd comment.
Whenever he talks about boepd he always means an average throughout the period.
He never means a specific day because productions fluctuates.
So even in November he still meant the average for the year, not that day, week or month.

People who are asking about cash.
The company will provide a cash flow statement as part of the accounts that are not due for months.
How can they answer a finance question before the accounts have been prepared and audited?
In general terms they started H2 with $2M, ended with $1.2M. Net profits for H2 isn't likely to be much and they spent cash on capex and the BP facility I don't think there's a question there.
Some people have just taken revenue less capex less opex (which they underestimated), so of course they're left wondering where the rest of the cash went. They haven't taken into account the admin costs, fair value losses and repayment of loans.
BTW those last two are currently due to end in October this year (unless the facility is extended in which case the effect on this year is still reduced).

I make the full year cash something like this:
Cash at start $2M
revenue +$19
direct costs -$6.5
admin -$3
swap on financing arrangement -$5
capex -$5.5
Cash at the end $1M
I think you'll find it balances just fine.

I know I've given the bashers opportunity to come back at me with some silly negative comments.
I don't care.
Sensible people will take a balanced view.
Those are the people I'm talking to. Not the bashers.
Have a great weekend all.

What the heck?!
An obvious deramper.
9 posts, almost all negative about UOG.
First one being you saying it can only go down.
So you would have sold then.
Or never bought.
I call BS.

There are companies that only have a wildcard asset like Jamaica, and nothing else, but they still have some value.
Take BOIL for example. Market cap of £8M.
So why can't UOG also have £8M value on Jamaica?

Our market cap is currently £15M.
We have about £1M cash and let's say Jamaica should be valued at something like £8M.
So you're essentially paying £6M for the rest.
£2M coming in from Selva and £3M from the North Sea. Not even counting Crown yet.
So you're essentially paying £1M for Egypt.
Which returned £2M net profit last year and will continue to return profits, likely exceeding £2M soon.

Does this make any sense at all?!
To quote Dr Cox's man falling off a cliff:
Nnnnnooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

CT, you say i3e is profitable. I’m looking at the most recent financial statements that say it isn’t. Bit still valued at over ten times uog which is profitable.

I’m not ignoring the water cut issue or the misleading boepd statement. I’m looking at the larger picture including all known factors and concluding again and again that this is a solid investment

Btw my 3 minutes research on i3e shows that they made a loss in the last reporting period of H1 2021 and are priced 10 times what we are.
Loss making? With oil prices so high?
They have to make money right now! Right?
With all said and done, UOG is profitable even at this level of production. Think about what we’ll look like with more wells and ESPs installed.

I’ll look into i3e, but whatever they have doesn’t diminish UOG.

No, I don’t work for UOG. But I have a fair amount of money invested here after extensive research.

@CT, I’m curious as to why you’ve invested in a company you think has such a short shelf life.

Much could be written about investment policies, but I’ll gloss over that and be more UOG specific.

First of all, ESPs ought to sort the water cut problem. That’s what they’re for, and there is compelling reason to think they work. Most oil wells use them.

Coupled with the large target’s we’re going after this year, I don’t think we’ll have to wait years to see production increase. My attitude to investing is in years, but that’s not the BOD’s attitude to spudding, clearly.

Re oil price. Yes, they’re high now. And they are more likely to increase than decreases. The deficit is set to widen even as global consumption goes down over the next few decades. Forget years, we’re talking decades here. The average car lasts on the road 10 years and we’re still quite far off the point where most cars are electric. Countries are targeting net carbon neutrality in 30 years earliest. Oil has a long time to run yet, and prices will probably continue to increase.

Re I3E, I’m not familiar. But I know that loads of O&G companies have huge negative retained earning. Look at copl and senx, retained earnings are $200M and $400M negative, but they’re both priced higher than us. Even if those companies can turn the corner and become profitable, it will be years and years before they can create shareholder value in terms of having positive shareholder equity. Talk to them about dividends! We on the other hand are already profitable and with very small negative RE we’re in a much stronger position than those companies in the short term as well as long term.

People gloating over making money where others lost is not a good look.
If you made money here, now’s probably a good time to shut up about it.

What can I say?
That's how investing works.
I'd throw out a bunch of quotes from the greats about patience but I'm sure you've heard them all before.
It always takes longer than you'd think.
But I do think we'll have much better production by the end of the year.

Absolutely.
The updated report acknowledges the water cut issue but maintains its target of c 4000 boepd in two years.
Installation of electronic submersible pumps throughout ASH will stabilise production.
Now with a much better understanding of the asset, what can go wrong and how to fix it.
The next target in the ASH field could well significantly boost our production.
It's unfortunately to see PIs throw in the towel so close to realisation of our worth.
Think in years, not in days, weeks or months.

Definitely.
Basket price is currently $3,315 by my calculation.
Compared to $2,892 last Q.
That's an extra $423 per oz. At 16,000 ounces that's an extra $6.7M profit.
Rhodium prices expected to keep going up all year.

It's already been sold.
Only conditional upon the receipt of approval of the Italian Authorities to the change of control.
It's not conditional based on the outcome of the Po Valley dispute.

Production up, basket price up, costs down.
Pretty good.
I don't understand the cash movement.
Cash was $132.7M. We made net profits of $15.5M. Capex was $4.2M. Dividends paid was about $11M. Share buyback was about $0.1M.
132.7+15.5-4.2-11-0.1 = 132.9.
So why is cash $110M? What was the extra $22.9M spent on?
Can someone who's been here longer than me help me understand please.
What am I missing?

There is a legal issue with one of the three divestments. If the buyer pulls out we keep the deposit and resell it to someone else. There's been nothing to indicate any issues with the other two.

This board is pushing so hard to see negatives only. Ignoring the huge upside and the bigger picture.
Some of these negatives don't even exist. They're based on lack of understanding of how accounts work.
And continue to not address these questions to the company itself even though they've made themselves far more available to questions than any other AIM company I've come across.
Most Aim boards are fully of PIs saying stuff like "yes, there's another placing coming and we haven't made any money yet but it's good because...."
This company is profitable and hasn't placed shares in two years!
And ppl here just want to whinge and complain because they set their own expectations too high.
This company has huge potential upside with almost no downside from here.
If you're unhappy with the level of risk/reward here, you don't belong on AIM at all IMO. Go buy an index fund and relax.

For myself, I can't be bothered for whingers any more. I'm going to start filtering.
I know what's going to happen to this company in the next two years.
If you want to keep harping on about missing cash because you don't understand accounts and don't want to ask the team, have at it.
I'll just continue to sit here and wait for inevitable rerate.
Peace.

Keeping it so simple you've completely missed out expenses.
What are you even talking about?

I've provided a very clear breakdown.
You want to keep it so simple that you're just getting it completely wrong.
And then getting angry that reality doesn't match your miscalculation.