Member Info for giantsquid

Market cap is currently around £60m

If market cap were to stay around this figure during the restructuring process, and we see this "very significant dilution" the company is warning about, a huge increase in shares in issue to perhaps 5bn - 10bn, would equate to a share price of just half a penny to 1p ( a fall of between -75% and -85% from the current share price).

So the price may look cheap right now at around 4p, but massive dilution could easily send it very much lower.

Once the restructuring is done, and once presumably most of the bad news and risk is behind the company, I do think there's a chance market cap could (eventually) grow to certainly a few multiples of where it is today. It's really once the restructuring is done that there may be an opportunity to perhaps double or triple your investment in time, assuming the company continues to recover that is, and no further bad news and risk comes along.

And although it's too far away to even speculate, if, and it's a big if, the company restructures and eventually makes a solid recovery, those who bought in immediately after the restructuring, at maybe a penny or a couple of pence a share, may well end up making a really healthy return over the long term.

But it's all about timing - this side of the restructuring process, it makes no sense to me whatsoever to expose your investment to massive impending dilution and uncertainty. There'll be plenty of time once the restructuring is done to assess the situation carefully, chat and debate about it on this forum, and decide whether or not the newly restructured company is worth investing in or not.

The only sensible place to be right now is out. There are currently too many uncertainties, unknowns and risks. Stay out and see what it looks like once the restructuring is done. Then decide whether or not you want to be invested - that would be my advice.

The assumption is they will emerge from this restructuring a smaller company, potentially much smaller, as the intention will be to close a fair few of their cinemas. So it's likely the company as a whole will only be worth a fraction of what it once was. Add to that "very significant dilution". Hard to put a number on that, but the assumption is we're probably talking billions more shares in issue - perhaps somewhere in the region of 5bn to 10bn shares in total, compared to the 1.373bn currently. That alone will have a massive negative effect on the share price.

I would agree to some extent once the restructuring is done, despite a huge increase in shares, the future for the company might finally be looking a little bit brighter, in that by that stage, the worst may be over, at least for now.

So while it makes no sense whatsoever to choose to stay invested right now and expose yourself to massive dilution which the company has already warned is very likely to happen, I do think once the restructuring is done and much of the risk and uncertainty is behind it, at least for the foreseeable future, there may finally be an opportunity to invest in the newly restructured company. Having said that, the company will likely be smaller and there'll be a lot more shares in issue, so historical share price movement and historical highs will no longer be relevant, ie, even in the best case scenario you're never going to see a multi billion dollar market cap again or a share price in the £'s. At best, and with a lot of time and luck, perhaps market cap might one day hit £250m or so. With 5-10bn shares in issue, you'd be taking 2.5p to maybe 5p or so per share. Even if market cap one day hit £500m, you'd still only be looking at around 5-10p a share.

The restructuring is good news for jobs and their paying customers, it's good news for the industry, but it's not terribly exciting news for shareholders. And as for LTH's, it's unlikely they'll ever see anywhere near their averages again.

The company is warning of "very significant dilution" to come - and yet we have various people on here ramping away and talking about this going to the moon - there's stupidity and then there's downright, wreckless stupidity.

The person who tweeted that, Sabah Meddings, is the senior business editor at the Sunday times. It's highly unlikely the Sunday times would allow one of their senior journalists to tweet false information.

"what could a restructured Cine be worth"

Sunday times "Cineworld's chief executive Mooky Greidinger is set to be all-but wiped out in the restructure"

If the CEO is likely to be wiped out, the chances are small shareholders will be too.

"fake media"

I think some people are in denial. I get the desperation given a lot of people have a lot of money tied up in this, but ignoring, downplaying and trivialising the risks is precisely the reason why so many are underwater right now. Either get real and face facts or risk losing even more money! It really is that simple!

Sunday times "Cineworld's chief executive Mooky Greidinger is set to be all-but wiped out in the restructure"

If he's set to be wiped out, small shareholders are certain to be wiped out too. This is going to 0p and fast imo.

The article published over a week ago on numerous MSM sites said the company was preparing to file for bankruptcy - so nobody can argue they didn't know it was potentially coming. If you chose to trade it anyway, despite the risks, you only have yourselves to blame. We've all posted dire warnings of what might happen, so nobody here can argue they didn't know the risks. What isn't acceptable is attacking the poor young lady on twitter for doing her job and tweeting about it. If you're angry regards communication, maybe direct your frustrations at the right people, ie, the company for failing to RNS the information before the press got hold of it?

The threat of bankruptcy, possible share suspension and massive dilution are all weighing on the share price - until there's some news, some clarity, some reassurance from the company, this remains a complete gamble, about as high risk as they come. Stocks like this appeal only to daytraders and short term gamblers who usually get their adrenaline kicks trading high risk AIM dogs. Proper investors want clarity as to where things stand before even thinking about touching this. As things stand, this stock is completely uninvestible.

I disagree with some in that I don't think it's the end for cinema. Home streaming isn't that much cheaper than cinema if you factor in all the costs including broadband. And you're getting a far inferior experience compared to the big screen. We have a giant screen 4K TV and even though the picture and sound quality is great, it definitely doesn't match what you experience in today's state of the art cinemas. So the issue as I see it, isn't whether cinema has a future - because there's no question it does. The issue is whether Cineworld has a future. And the bottom line is, it's a badly run company that's been saddled with enormous debt due to a serious of wreckless management decisions. The company has been steered into the ground by truly terrible management decisions and shareholder value all but destroyed in the process. Even in a recovering sector that shows promise, there can be dog companies that aren't likely to survive. Cineworld, in my opinion, is one such company. The sector will survive, even flourish i suspect in the years to come, but I strongly suspect Cineworld PLC as we know it, won't survive. At the very least, the high possibility of massive dilution will make this uninvestible - a dog of a share most investors will steer clear of. I really can't see it continuing much longer as a listed company. I think it'll end up in administration and shareholders will be wiped out, then we'll see perhaps a phoenix company of some description rise from the ashes, probably a smaller privately held cinema chain.

The company recently stated themselves there was a risk of "significant dilution", multiple MSM articles have said the company is "preparing to file for bankruptcy within weeks" (one even stated the company had "declined to comment" - which basically confirms the article is true, imo). And then you have iis reducing and selling out at a pittance a share. Clearly the company is in a very bad place right now. As for the recent rally, one can only assume that was down to the herd piling in. The only RNS's we've seen recently have been of iis reducing and selling out (which is bad news no matter how you try and spin it) and Mooky trying to reassure the market he's still holding could be seen as confidence, but it could also be seen as stupidity and stubbornness given the dire situation the company is in. Captain Smith of the Titanic defiantly held on till the bitter end too, and we all know how that turned out! Mooky trying to reassure the market is a bit like Captain Smith trying to reassure his terrified passengers all will be okay, despite the ship being mortally wounded and about to go under!I think monday could see the FTSE rallying on the announcement of the new prime minister - not sure if that rally would extend to cine, because I think this is largely herd driven atm. Many will have sold out friday afternoon but if they see an opportunity to trade it again, no doubt they'll be back. After all these are the kind of traders who are willing to take a punt in high risk, high reward shares so at these prices the stock will continue to be on their radar. But with the risk of share suspension, massive dilution and possible bankruptcy never too far away, anyone who puts money into this is taking one hell of a risk in my opinion. I think some will profit at these prices, they'll successfully trade it and have the good sense to get out before their luck runs out. Unfortunately I think many others could end up spiked, massively out of pocket and possibly end up in a share suspension they didn't see coming and even end up massively diluted or completely wiped out if and when the company goes into administration. Of course these high risk/high reward penny stocks are what appeals most to the herd - usually they find such opportunities on the AIM casino, right now a well known cinema chain at a pittance a share is proving a highly attractive proposition for these gamblers, despite the risks, which is why I suspect we'll continue to see wild swings here until some proper news lands - be that good or bad.

I think the markets will most likely bounce on monday as uncertainty around who will be the next prime minister comes to an end. At 12:30pm the new pm will be announced, most likely Liz Truss. I think shares will widely bounce around that time. Johnson will meet the Queen tuesday to formally offer his resignation. Truss (assuming she wins) will meet the Queen shortly after. I think the markets will react most favourably if Truss wins, personally I think she's the better candidate.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/02/prime-minister-odds-tracker-conservative-leadership-2022/

Up 50% in hours, is the Cineworld share price a bargain?

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/09/02/up-50-in-hours-is-the-cineworld-share-price-a-bargain/

When does the CMA's probe come to a conclusion? I was wondering if today's rise could have been something to do with that? Otherwise it's probably to do with the Dow being up due to a solid jobs report.

The chart looks bullish to be fair, looks like it could jump to 7-8p or so, but I still see a strong likelihood of a sell off into close sending it much lower. Personally I wouldn't want to hold this over the weekend, I'd even go as far as saying I'd be nervous holding this at all because of the high risk of share suspension which could happen at any time with no guarantee of a favourable outcome if/when the shares trade again. I wish holders well here but it's way too risky for me. I'm also highly skeptical as to what's behind the rise. Mooky still holding and iis bailing out is not reason for a 200% rise. So i suspect the rise is largely being driven by daytraders - the herd piling in, creating a kind of pump and dump situation. At some point they're going to start banking their profits - and that's likely to cause the share price to fall. And the more it falls, the more the herd begin to panic sell, causing the fall to accelerate. Of course the afternoon may take a different path, but with weekend coming up and many sat on large paper profits, I do think a sell off is inevitable this afternoon. We'll see of course, I could be wrong!

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/0RYA/ryanair-august-traffic-grows-52-to-169m-guests-upoztcz66r9f707.html

https://www2.trustnet.com/Investments/Article.aspx

When the profit taking kicks in, which it's going to at some point, this could reverse rapidly! Greed is the enemy of profit!

"Just wishing I’d bought more when it was down at 2p"

The herd are on this atm hence the rise, the question is, will they be willing to risk holding this over the weekend or are they going to bank their profits sometime today or tomorrow? I still say we'll see a strong sell off either later today or tomorrow, causing a significant drop back to the low 2's. Well done to all those who are making good money here though, credit where credit is due!