Charles Jillings, CEO of Utilico, energized by strong economic momentum across Latin America. Watch the video here.
Yeah, we have our fair share of senseless tampers. Like the one imagining a 60k base scenario somehow doubled :) At least he's actually a fanatic for the share and not just pumping and dumping.
No matter, most of us are not here invested because of them, but despite of them. Evidence is the current volume (lack of it) and spread.
Not really, there's no true volume. Traders don't have enough to play with, the spread is large. At the same time investors simply have no reason to sell now. It's a waiting game. Only thing that could move this is an institute buying from open market at a high enough price to make people exit.
While we're at back of a napkin calculations.
Assuming dividend funds look at EMH and decide that it can produce and sell 30k tonnes for USD $30k every year, that translates into a revenue is USD $900m per year. EMH's half of that comes to 450m. Using 30% for opex and debt service, that leaves 315m. Pay the dues and you're down to about 265m. Assuming no serious dilution due to state and EU grants and prepaid offtakes, let's assume175m shares on issue. That implies a yearly dividend of about USD $1.5 per share. So a dividend fund seeking to get a return of 7.5% a year could be comfortable paying up to USD $20 a share. Mining shares are well liked in their portfolios, so go figure.
Now I agree, we will probably be taken out before this, but how soon, how far, how suspiciously? Anyone's guess. Anything under AUD $10 is a spit in the face after DFS IMO.
Yeah, one possible view is that buying KDNC is actually a way to buy EMH at the discounted rate (~free) when you take other assets into account. With a deep enough pocket, you can get 7-8% of that plus a some change and lottery tickets (Sonora, Amapa).
I consider the information coming from KC to be white noise. That leaves the FID in perhaps Q1 and by extension of that, DFS slightly before that. The rest is positive surprise category. Consider the commercial samples and offtakes - first mention by KC years ago, latest previous if which was Q1 this year if I'm not mistaken. That man is a liability to this company... Still, the fundamentals and necessity all points in a direction where piling in now makes sense. My favourite kind of investment.
Couple of thoughts: I believe 18 months is the time it takes to construct the mine. With the estimated beginning of production now at the turn is 26-27, that leaves only a year to secure financing, grants and permits after FID - seems pretty good (and optimistic) actually. Then, it's worth noting that this date was put out by CEZ, not EMH, so the credibility is hardly comparable. Can it delay? Absolutely. But not a decade without any visible progress.
In terms of whether that's late and doom and gloom. Absolutely ridiculous. We're at the beginning of the BEV era, every indication is that we're very far from supply demand balance and lithium pieces continue to stay high. How high? The only number that matters is the one we put in the DFS and gets to FID. That NPV is the basis of whatever value we get assigned and the basis of the return we can hope to get here.