Member Info for Ghia

Nolupus - Are you referencing the COPD readout or the at Home Trials?

COPD seems like an obvious opportunity to access data early if 100 patients is good enough for the c19 trial, 109 should be fine for COPD.

I believe At Home was always the goal but they had to prove out the safety aspect in a hospital setting first.

It's significant that we are now allowed to dose High Risk patients 50+, that tells us there are no obvious adverse side effects being caused in the Hospital trial or COPD trial.

Nice if you would share your thoughts.

Seb46 - Respect to you also, the stock markets have a huge element of psychology to them when people talk about charts, supports and resistance how much of that is numerical and how much is psychological. My wife is a psychology teacher fascinating subject.

As we begin to ease lockdown there will be some interesting opportunities elsewhere you are not wrong there. IAG is one to watch for sure I've done well on DTG in the past too.

I have no issue with people selling up here if they have decided their journey with the share has come to it's natural conclusion, delays are frustrating. I would just caution them to not throw it all into the first stock they find with a buzz around it, easy to loose a lot of money chasing rainbows.

Seb46 - Care to enlighten me on the treatments and vaccines that are doing better?

If Remdesivir was a stonking success why are they trialing it with IV interferon beta?

I think whilst a start Remdesivir is a long way from perfect and might actually fall from grace once more data is collected.

Vaccines well I haven't read anything yet that says there will be one anytime soon.

Sitting on loses is hard and every one has to make the call for themselves. The question i'm asking myself is what has changed since I initially invested I satisfied myself and actually bought more this morning.

I think everyone should ask the same question to themselves and not get swayed by others work out your own answer and then act accordingly.

Takenorisk - They where towards the tail end of the COPD trial when COVID hit so in the fortunate position of having Placebo and Drug already in place to cover the Hospital trial. This is why we where able to move so quickly.

The initial placing was to fund them fully to conduct the hospital trial and begin to stockpile the drug.

So as Richard pointed out in his attest video they have the cash to fulfill the trials currently taking place.

To move this beyond Phase 2 into Phase 3 and more wider use, funding will always have been required the form that funding takes is yet to be decided.

But lets get passed the phase 2 results first before we start considering the future.

Well my speculative 48p got hit sooner than I thought

DubleD - my apologies yes early trials have suggested remdesivir can reduce recovery time by up to 4 days.

I will be interested to see if that number gets adjusted once proper trials have been conducted.

Time will tell.

SNG001 could yet be used to compliment remdesivir with remdesivir only being used for patients at later stages of the infection.

I’m seeing words such as blockbuster being bandied about referring to results. Suggestions that early signs are not great etc.

We probably need to do a bit of expectation management and this post is aimed at that.

We are aiming to recruit 100 patients, for arguments sake let’s use a 1% mortality rate for Covid that will mean sadly 1 person from the trial cohort will not make it.

That means the 99 remaining patients will pull through.

Obviously this means it’s not going to be clear cut as those on the drug survived and those not on the drug did not.

Once the data is analysed we will be looking for trends such as the drug reduced recovery time by X days or the lasting damage caused by the virus was less when on the drug, using the drug prevented the requirement for more invasive treatment.

Throw in the double blind nature of the data it will be incredibly hard to predict anything at this stage.

Remdesivir offers a 2day improvement and look at the press it has got globally.

We are looking for small margins here we’d all do well to remember that.

They do within two trading days of crossing the %.

Volumes have been lower recently if they are still offloading it will take them longer.

Nolupus - As the resident pessimist I was hoping for you to fill in the blanks

Personally I could only see scenarios that would require guess work as to the outcome of the trial.

I chose not to rise to your bait ref the "lady " comment.

Might help build an estimate.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/wheredoover70slive/2020-03-24

Nolupus - As an optimist one could argue:

COPD interim analysis required to ensure fair value in the event that the hospital trial is positive and a move for the company is made... or when brokering licensing deals.

As a realist I suspect they saw the opportunity to use the delay caused by Covid to gain access to the data early. Second bite at the cherry to guard against inconclusive or unfavourable Hospital trial data. Risk management.

As a pessimist - *insert answer here*

Nolupus - I was just trying to drill down to the crux of your objections I was hoping you had some information that you could share ref trial design that would spell out black and white why it was an issue.

As it transpires it's an opinion and we are all entitled to opinions so I won't press you further on it.

VanV - Agreed just look at the technologies across the board that are making waves, many are still in their infancy of development but I think there is a growing consensus that we need more than is in our current arsenal as it where.

Nolupus - I fail to see why it's such a big issue that Synairgen are running the lab that confirms an active coronavirus infection themselves.

If they get a false positive that patient could easily go on to be given placebo, false negative and they don't make it onto the trial.

I can clearly see why they have set up their own lab to test the swabs since the whole point of the trial is speed, if they control the whole courier/lab process they will enroll their patients in the quickest way possible.

Once they are on the trial its a whole different ball game and I expect all the usual best practices to be in place.

aj242 - The only point I disagreed on was that there was only old news in the announcements. I agree with you that this will likely drift for a while now until we get closer to the results date.

Nolupus - Just another example of how Synairgen and Southampton University are breaking new ground, the medical industry for the first time in a long time are open to change. Mindsets have changed because they are forced to adapt and move out of their comfort zone. This is a great time for medicine.

"This is the first trial of its type to be conducted "remotely" in this way and if successful, may point towards a potential domiciliary care protocol for this and future viral outbreaks."

Yet again we could be creating the trial blueprint.

Also Synairgens involvement seems to be to verify that the Swab taken to confirm the Covid Infection is positive. Seems perfectly fair that Synairgen control this aspect of the trial, probably necessary due to the bottle necks in the countries Lab Infrastructure.

aj242 - The old news was that we where preparing for at home trials, the new news is that as of today you can be enrolled on that trial.

They have overcome all the technical and logistical issues to make it happen. That in itself is a piece of new news which as you can see has been picked up by 3 tabloids already today.

Hospital cases are falling our trial is now moving to where the problem exists that has to be a positive, and once again we are the first to do it.

We where one of the earliest Covid focused treatment trials and now we are the earliest to roll out to at home.

Regardless of trial outcomes you have to hand it to Synairgen they have been fast out of the blocks.

Nolupus - Surely once COPD data is unblinded and published continuing the trial is a bit pointless. So for now it's paused pending interim analysis wouldn't be surprised if once that analysis has happened the trial gets stopped anyway.

Nolupus - It would be good to get a second opinion this statement.

"The Company has received approval from the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) to conduct an unplanned interim analysis on the grounds that data from the 109 COPD patients with confirmed viral infection generates useful safety, biomarker and potentially efficacy data to support ongoing trials of SNG001 in COVID-19 patients. The results of this interim analysis are expected this Summer."

How would they deduce efficacy data if it remained in a blinded format?

Rich - As is so often the case on these boards the lack of body language, vocal tone etc means that text gets taken in many different contexts. I'm sure if this was a conversation happening face to face we would get less of the ramping, de-ramping suggestions.

The announcements released today have no bearing on the outcome of the trial apart from we will have to wait a little longer for news. Which as you say could go one way or another.

I see no negatives in todays announcement other than the delay. I see several positives regarding perceived safety of the drug and that the at home trial is now open for recruiting. But again neither of these will effect the outcome of the trial.