Member Info for Ghia

Magsy - I see the point you are making and I do not disagree with it. But I also see the point of others which I also agree with.

As investors we make a choice to invest based on our perceived value of the company some of that will be based on the here and now situation and some of that will be based on a series of events likely to happen in the near, mid and long-term direction of the company.

The market is usually efficient at finding the value for a share, when it doesn't it soon re-rates quite dramatically. GDR had one of those re-rates very recently and it was well justified.

NCYT is an example of where the market priced the share in anticipation of a huge chunk of sales, once confirmation of those sales orders hit the share actually retraced.

I imagine the same will happen here at GDR we know the profit margins, we know the production capacity, once the first order lands quite quickly we will probably see the share being valued at the production capacity rather than the true order book.

So I think it is justified to draw aspirational comparisons to NCYT despite no orders yet.

Dave I should have said i'd be happy with that for starters.

Sid - I think you have to look beyond Covid and to the use of SNG as a first port of call for a multitude of viral issues. I would not know where to start with a valuation and personally I would be very happy to achieve the fincapp £2.40 target.

Once we have trial data we might then be able to start quantifying the size of the market for SNG and speculate.

Hi Jo - Finncap are suggesting £2.40 on successful trial results for Covid. Which yields a market cap approximately £330Mil and a 5x return on investment at todays price, not many would complain at that.

If this drug eventually makes it to market you could be talking valuations £1bil+ but you would have to see this journey through to its conclusion.

Bebeto - That's the date I had arrived at too! Great Minds...

Thanks CW - My main holding is obviously SNG hence why I post there so often, but I have small stakes in a lot of the Covid plays.

It's clear to see that the demands for testing are high and plenty of room for lots of differing technologies. The government backing here is significant, their intervention in the mail delivery antibody test kits is a clear sign that they will not let anything ruin their roll out of the POC antibody tests.

DubleD - I have small stakes in most of the Covid plays spread the risk and there is room in the market for all to succeed.

And yes Ghia was a coach house/auto design firm. A particular favourite of mine is the VW Karmann Ghia (a poor mans Aston Martin)

ODX is the equivalent of Yourgene to NCYT?

Which test are people more excited about the Mologic or the RTC?

I hadn't realised both are antibody tests.

Nolupus - Can they withhold market sensitive information such as that?

I think it's a bit early to tell what effect if any the placing will have. If I wanted to be cynical the timing of the sky news interview could be to generate a rise on which the II's can offload.

There is a lot of news flow due here will be interesting to see if rises are sold into or are left to run.

Would be nice to see this one cut loose.

Well that RNS has set the timer ticking, 14days dosing , 14 days follow up and whatever time it takes to analyse the data.

We will see people positioning themselves by the end of June, although will they get caught out by COPD data arriving?

Forest - you may be correct.

However from the RNS it does imply COPD followed by hospital then home.

“Over the coming months we will have three major clinical trial read-outs for SNG001, our wholly-owned, inhaled IFN-beta asset: COPD patients with regular seasonal viruses; COVID-19 hospital-treated patients; and the early treatment of COVID-19 patients in the home setting. The Company is active on many fronts from designing and managing novel trials to developing the regulatory strategy and supply chain for potential demand in the future."

Bladerunner - For your sake and others in a similar condition I hope the COPD data makes a real difference.

Crookie - I think the interesting point is whoever wants to see the data doesn’t want to wait to fill the extra 11 patients or for the covid trial to complete.

Many funding options discussed, buyout, licensing or large stake of company acquired in the form of a placing bringing on the new partner and additional cash for phase 3 trials and production.

It was a glorious moment of ramping magic from Nolupus!

Crookie - The theory proposed is that the sudden change of tack on the COPD readout was triggered by an interested party waiting in the wings wanting to do due diligence.

Nolupus - You where one of the first to voice that theory I give you that.

The 2-3weeks is a figure that had been discussed for many weeks in relation to the covid trials.

Since the COPD is 109 patients one would assume it will take a similar time to analyse.

Oil - I think COVID brought many here so the delay till
July put people off.

I’m not sure the penny has dropped that COPD might be released in June and the significance of that.

A few of the scientists on ADVFN are saying 2-3weeks.

Groover - Thanks for the correction, it’s a shame when stuff like that happens there will be many that have lost money that they probably couldn’t afford to loose. Life lessons and all that.

It’s nice being in SNG knowing roughly the timescales for news arrival, if you’ve got the patience that is.

Some of these testing shares are on a knife edge news could drop at any point but lots of opportunities for false starts and the share price getting ahead of itself.