Member Info for ggplyr

Telegraph one is too big to copy and paste... summary its about spread betting. Its a bit of free marketing for Plus and CMC but highlighting the risks. That was my one free article I can look at today on it. don't have the times.

I don't see why they'd rather retain the cash. Other companies are retaining the cash because of the covid-19 adverse impact. Plus is benefiting from Covid-19. No need to retain cash with such low fixed costs. Plus counties all over the world are giving out cash to people. The UK is paying 80% of wages for people if their company has no work for them. many people are still on full pay. From the ONS a house hold spends 70% on their normal income on essential items. The other 30% isn't available to be spent in the current climate (e.g hotels, restaurants, holidays, transport). basically people will slowly have more cash and not much to do, other than play with things online such as spread betting, online casinos, online games etc.

I appreciate lots of people have also lost their jobs too, but others will have an excess of cash and lots of time on their hands... all bodes well for Plus500 to continue making great money until the market volatility gets back to normal.

Id rather they just give shareholders back the cash in divis rather than this buy back. I don't really see the point in buy backs unless there is hardly any liquidity I the share.

It was in yesterdays RNS albeit in $. convert at 1.23 for an estimation
The final dividend for the year ended 31 December 2019 of $40.8m, representing $0.3767 per share, which went ex-dividend on 27 February 2020, is payable on 13 July 2020. 

Amazing. I'd estimated 184 m of revenue based on cmcx trading updates in the month....I was very wrong.
Acquisition cost per customer lower too....great news

Dividends are being cut for banks because they need to boost their balance sheets to be able to lend and will be expecting an increase in bad debts. Other companies are cutting their dividends because of the uncertainty around covid-19. There is no uncertainty for Plus500, it will be making considerable profit and cash flow from the current crisis and volatility across all the markets. They have a policy of returning much of the excess cash back to share holders. It makes no sense to cut dividends. I assume this will just likely result in an increase in dividends next year or a special dividend later in the year.

Can you deposit easily too? If so thumbs up!

I want to buy back into 888 now because I want to play poker again to break up the boredom of a lock down. But it says my account is locked, when I email them I get an auto response saying expect longer response times because one of their office has had to close because of covid-19. So if they can't respond when demand is going to be high this doesn't entice me to buy!

Good news on increased facility. Trade receivables and trade payables up were also up 10% year on years for Positive and Gener8 from May 18 - May 19 so looks like this growth is continuing. (RNS states 9% increase YOY to Jan 20)

At May 19 the trade payables for Positive and Gener8 (so mainly loan facilities) were already at the £37m, if they continue this organic growth they will need another 5m before long.

I couldn't see anything on this. Any links to articles etc?

Not really, they don't have to put a cash flow in the individual stats as long as the group does a consolidated one.
I've looked at it a little but difficult to draw conclusions. I might take another stab at it.

I have also calculated Profit after tax/ trade receivables for the businesses:

Positive 2018 = 4.3% (pro-rated to 1 year), 2019 = 5.5%
Gener8 2018= 5.2% (pro-rated to 1 year), 2019 = 4.9%
These are the IF businesses, very low risk of bad debt, so a nice steady percentage

1PM 2018 =4.5%, 2019 = 5.0% -
Academy 2018 = 10.0% 2019 = 7.5%
bradgate (inc bell) 2018 = 3.5%, 2019 = 3.4%
Intelligent 2018 = 10.6%, 2019 = 6.8% - relatively large impairment in 2019

car finance 2 u - not a relevant metric as all business is brokered on

Personally I think the IF businesses are strong and safe. The other businesses are still profitable, just more risk involved. Academy and intelligent have offset this risk with a larger margin in the last couple of years. 1PM and Bradgate's margin could be bigger.
All in all, it looks healthy enough so I think its nicely under valued.

The IF business do lend (Trade receivables of 26.9m & 15.7m) its just considerably lower risk than asset finance resulting in very small provision.
I cant see the split the between invoice factoring and invoice discounting which would be interesting to see. Although, revenue/ trade receivables is 18% of both IF businesses which I think means they have a large amount of invoice factoring (where Gener8 and/or Positive takes ownership of the companies trade receivables rather than just loaning the business money against their trade receivables) - although I might be miss understanding this.

Asset finance is always going to be higher risk, offset by the ratio of sales/trade receivables being higher too.
You can deduce the value of the trade receivables being in the non performing category for the group: 1.467m is the CLP in the may 19 annual report note 30, This is at 20%. so 1.467m/20% = 7.335m.
Of this 1.467 is already recognised in the P&L leaving 7.335-1.467= 5.868m. Of course, this isn't to say there is a hit of 5.868m coming in the future as we assume they will recover the other 80% but does highlight a risk if this should be 40% rather than 20% then it could be another 1.467m hit, although I find this unlikely.

Its also worth noting the shift in the balance sheet in the half year, there are considerably more current receivables/ non current receivables (ratio of 2.0 as at Nov 19, (1.47 at May 19), (1.77 at Nov 18)). This is a shift toward shorter term loans (in part this will be the lower risk invoice finance). This could just be capitalising on the demand for short term loans rather than a conscious shift in strategy.

All,
I have looked at the individual stats and have summarised some findings- apologies for the format... best I can do in this text box

Key:Business sector - A= Asset, L=loan, I= Invoice, V= vehicle, numbers in £'000
Academy- A, V Revenue = 6,619, PAT = 1,333
onePM -A, L, Revenue = 8,013, PAT = 1,600
Bradgate and bell - A, Revenue = 4,316, PAT = 878
Positive - I, Revenue = 4,877, PAT = 1,488
Gener8 - I, Revenue = 2,770, PAT = 778
intelligent - L, 2,536, PAT = 219
Car finance 2u -V, Revenue = 2,683, PAT = 395
NB- PAT unreconciled to group accounts by 500k, additional costs within the group.

ECL analysis- value of CLP split as follows |performing | under performing | non performing| (all stated in £000)
Academy |121|9|229|
onePM |185|66|415
Bradgate (Plus bell) |112|148|719|
positive cash flow |174|0|0|
gener8 |40|0|0|
intelligent |84|3|109|
car finance2u |0|0|0|
(Should agree to the 2414k in the group accounts)

Value of current and non current trade receivables- £'000
Academy 17,789
onePM 31,761
Bradgate (Plus bell) 25,931
positive cash flow 26,975
gener8 15,730
intelligent 3,209
car finance2u 250
Any questions/ thoughts?

Guess not- just me

Are people still watching 1pm?

"....As such, we have decided to wait until the interim results are ready which are only a few weeks away in in mid-Jan.
 
At that point we’ll also be reiterating our progressive dividend policy and proposing an interim dividend.
 
I hope that all makes sense but, as ever, if there’s any further points of clarity you require just let me know."

oh sorry, it was mentioned... but not a value.

yup

I didn't believe Steve (no offence Steve) so I emailed the CFO, he has advised there is no trading update... there will be interim results in January.
Email them yourself if you don't believe it.