Member Info for ggplyr

If enough people email in they will have to respond.

I got the same response Bristol, I've wrote back and said it explains nothing etc.... keep on emailing, hopefully we can get the provide a further RNS which actually makes some sense.

I understand what you are saying Olig, but I would rather transparency. Or at least the FD to proof read the RNS to see if it makes sense.

I've had a response from Rob, he has basically just cut and pasted some of the RNS.

Mark - I'm not a member on ADVFN but I see you there..im watching you lol, please can you see if you can get some people there to email in to Rob Gurner too?

If some other people could also email in to ask them to confirm how they expect Q4 to be their worst quarter in 5 years please could you do so. I think this is the most misleading trading update I've seen.

Rob Gurner
Head of Investor Relations
M +44 7825 189088
rob.gurner@plus500.com

So. "Full year forecast in line with analysts expectations." I.e 830m.
This means q4 revenue is expected to be 49m. You have to go back to 2015 to get a quarter with such low revenue. I doubt this is true.

First time they've indicated a forecast for a while. Ebitda of $520m for the full year

Looks like your intern estimate was on the money

I think the month of September was exceptionally good.
Cmcx half years show they did 200m from April to September for cfd trading, previous half year was 85m.

Apply the same factor to plus and that gives revenue of 233m for q3. Although I suspect plus will do better than cmc as it did during the height of covid. So i'm gyessing in the region of $275m - $300m for q3.

Looks to me like revenue is up, so are costs. Revenue is not going to stay up once volatility returns to normal. Costs are semi fixed people costs. These will remain in place.
So margin in the not to distant future is down. So share price is down.

RNS out today for cmc, there forecast for for the end of the year looks high. Previous trading updates always include a full year forecast and appear to assume that trading will go back to normal levels immediately, therefore you can infer revenue earner todate. This trading update implies that last months has been very high....unless my maths is wrong. (Plus and cmcs revenue is strongly correlated)

What's Plus exposure to this? UK customers only right? and do people bet on crypto much these days?

But what do the tea leaves show?

Thanks

Any ideas what has caused it today?

Thanks simple, i'd noticed that statement in the TU of the AGM & hadn't concluded it implied CTP was negative, i'd read it to mean it was neutral.

It would be alot easier if PLUS adopted CMC's trading update style and actually included their own forecast for the year rather than us trying to dissect language and us regularly interpretting it differently.

It is useful to have these sort of dicussions/debates rather just ramping, or as 14Cr nicely put it "sitting in an echo chamber"

I think we are saying the same thing 14cr - but just to clarify. I'd assumed this meant the first 40 days of H2 2020 has twice the revenue of the first 40day of H2 2019.
Fag packet calculation: 2019 Q3 revenue was $111m, so first 40 days was $111m x 40/90 = $99m. It was more aimed at liberums revenue estimate for H2 being very low.

What are your models estimating for H2 revenue?
The intermin results released in the RNS on 11/8/20 stated "Customer Income so far in H2 2020 is more than double that of the prior year," which made it nearly $100m for H2 when it was only 40 days into H2

Can't see that party, what's it say?

Regarding your interpretation in relation to H1 trading. Read my most recent post which comes straight from the horses mouth. Perhaps someone else also email them. It was Rob gurnee who replied to me: rob.gurner@plus500.com