Member Info for GetOnYerBike

Neilius,

I would say £1.50 on FID is not a fanciful number. I think a lot of people who had/have these from all those years ago could not bare the memory of how they had £5+ shares that went to less that 5p. Now they put them in the bottom drawer and forgot about them. Now they've checked and see they are not doing too bad after all. A bit of research and they start buying more. I know I've just chatted to two mates who bought all those years ago that are thinking like that. They were not aware of what is going on. One now saying if he had spare cash he would buy some more. So yes sentiment is rising. Remember thry got to £5+ a share from 3/4 positive drill results many moons ago, now they are further on down the line to FID and first oil, so I would not be surprised if sentiment gets us higher values than the NAV is saying.

LTT,

You missed off first dividend after first oil. What could that be, 20-50p/share at a conservative estimate. Once at full production and debt paid off much higher.

Spacehopper,

As you say, everyone's strategy is different. I can't blame you taking profit up to FID, as this share is still a gamble until til FID is confirmed. I've decided to take the risk and holding through, praying FID will happen. It will a huge load off my shoulders if it does. But I think after FID I will add to my position a little (with nowhere near the profit potential ATM pre FID), knowing RKH will be a sound and much safer investment. As there will be certainty that the market loves the institutional investors will start loading up.

Nike,

Yes good point. I guess they would have to of pumped either some aggressive LCM first before weighing up. Or just pump concrete which would kill two birds with one stone but still risky. Love to know what went on, and the plot has certainly thickened on this well. I'll keep my ear to the ground and see if I know someone who knows someone. But I'm hoping to be out of the industry soon so probably never know. Someone should of asked around at the AGM. Think I might try and go next year and ask that question.

Also could be a reason they are keeping there distance from that area of field ATM. Maybe not as simple as poking a quick couple of holes in the ground, but not something they woukd like the press to know. Lots of ifs and maybes with this one.

Incidently, I chatted to contact who was down Falklands, but unfortunately he was only there on first rig, and not involved on Isabel.

"If MM and Oil Brat had been in charge of the drilling campaigns I think DES would still be here and this share price would be in the many £s year ago….ho hum."

Desire ran that Drilling campaign like absolute fools. They had an oil discovery just over the edge of their acreage but did not think to drill a well in just on their side. It was so obvious sealion was going to extend south. That and the assumed Sw number that was wrong and turned oil into water Once corrected.

Sorry, when I say in control, the well will have been shut in, with danger minimised. It could have mitigated further if things had deteriorated it seems, but I'm just guessing. I wonder if they just pumped cement down the choke line in the end to kill the whole thing.

Champagne - he wishes lol.

That's interesting. The high pressure must have raised the pressure downhole and migrated into the weaker formation above. Yes very hard to deal with. Not a blow out though in the general meaning of the term. I would call it a well control situation. They would have still been in control but the well was circular flowing down hole so to speak. Not unheard of. Witnessed a similar situation in NS a few tears ago on a HPHT well, took a few weeks to sort out. They use Measured Pressure Drilling on that field now. MPT might be the way to go for future wells in that area of the field. I know someone who was on the Falkland champagne, not sure if he was on the second phase though. I'll ask if he can remember anything.

PaulDrayton,

"What a lot of people don’t know is PMO messed up the original Isobel well and drilled into a high pressure reservoir and there was a blowout"

Pretty sure they did not have a blow out. A blowout is an uncontrolled release of fluid/gas from the well. This was not uncontrolled. I'm not really sure you could say PMO messed up either. Drilling any well is a fine balance (literally), and with a wildcat well, as this was, there are a lot of unknowns. You have to get your mud weight balanced right. Too heavy a drilling fluid and you can get mud losses if you drill into an under pressured and fractured zone. Too light drilling fluid and you drill into a higher pressure zone and you get an influx of fluid into the well (gain) or when a lot of gain a kick. It is most likely they had a kick. Yes unplanned and can be a problem to rectify, but this is not a blowout. What they would of done once they noticed the well was flowing, was shut in the well. That is close the BOP around the drill pipe. This would shut the well in and make it safe. This prevents the kick becoming a blowout. At what stage they did this I don't know (leaving it too long makes it more difficult to deal with). They would have then opened a small secondary valve (choke) (after mixing suitable heavy mud) and pumped heavy mud into the well to kill it (takes a little time as the valve is so small). This would have then killed the well (basically over balanced the drilling fluid against the higher pressure zone). This circulating out the kick would have been when they got the oil back to surface most likely (as it had come in on the initial influx/kick). Now if the cement on the casing had been sub standard the fluids could of migrated between the casing and the formation, making their way to the surface and being released at the seabed resulting in a subsea blow out (this didn't happen), or if the BOP had failed they could have made it to the rig surface (also did not happen). So basically a kick (big one it seems) which was dealt with. Maybe dealt with badly but dealt with all the same as far as I can understand. This is the sort of story thing the green environmental brigade get hold of and blow out of proportion (pun half intended), then try and side the press against these projects.

GOYB.

Yes more red tape we don't need. Let's hope it's minimal. But these things tend to grow arms and legs over time. They should not laiden us with this nonsense at such an early stage of the basin development.

In one way could play well for Navitas and thus a more likely and earlier +ve decision on FID. Spike in oil price just as Shenandoah comes online. Big increase in profits and cash flow, more than they were expecting.

It looks to me that they are showing some revenue from Sealion last quarter of 2027. Easy to miss on the bar chart. But will probably slip into 2028.

Workover, not forever and workout!

Daikihaku1,

"But was wondering whether a service provider might be interested? Is there any history of such an arrangement in the industry?"

Indeed there has been at one time or another in different forms. I remember one on the old Argyll (now Ardmore) Field was revisited after ceasing production. There was a partnership with a rig provider (Rowan). They provided the rig and expertise (don't know percentage) for a share of production. As I remember a total of 4 wells were planned, to drill directionally above oil water contact (water level had raised up in past causing abandonment due to imcreased water production). After the first successful we'll started producing, the second was drilled, then the first started producing water, so they did a forever on it, restoring oil production then the second well started producing water, so they did a workout there too. Then started well 3. Then we'll 1&2 started producing water etc. The project was soon abandoned, with Rowan not happy and wanting to sue the oil company. But said company went into liquidation.

I have heard of other examples too which have had better outcomes. Baker Hhughes did simething on Goldeneye field a few years back. Dont know the details of contract though. But yes it does happen, but is not that common.

GOYB.

LTT,

I quote "For example, if we needed say £25m, then I don't see Sam going through the hassle of doing an offer to existing share holders, it's roughly 50m shares depending on the share price. I would expect the share price to be a good bit higher with Navitas asking for funds to FID Sea Lion, we might be anywhere between 50p and 75p at such a time, as FID on Sea Lion opens up the whole basin, we cannot underestimate the reaction to that once the media gets behind it. Headlines such as, "15 years in the making, now Falklands Islanders are to be Rich Beyond The Dream of Avarice!" and similar."

Or we go early for a bit more cash from shareholders, secure the rig a month or two early and poke a couple more holes into Isabel, hope its full of stars, and increase our value. When the time comes for us to be taken over it will be for a higher share price. Now that would be a nice outcome.

LTT

Do you think a fund raise will be offered to all share holders or ii only? It would be nice to be offered some shares at a discount, but I guess it depends on the time frame in which they need the funds.

Almacogan,

I'll be running past the winter gardens in Morcambe in the morning.

Incidentally, bought in the past at 15p pre-Sealion. Gave up on the Rock until recently. All buys now are a gamble until FID when RKH will become an investment, albeit at a higher price than today. I'm a gambler atm on on a successful FID, after which I will stay on as an investor.

Don't worry, I mopped all of said directors shares up yesterday and this morning. Fully loaded now ready for first oil.

This was all in the open two years ago.

https://globalarbitrationreview.com/article/italy-fails-dislodge-poncet-icsid-case

"The arbitration, under the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), related to a dispute where Rockhopper claimed that Italy had breached its obligations under the Energy Charter Treaty. Initially, Rockhopper was entitled to compensation of €190 million plus interest, according to the unanimous decision of the arbitration panel on August 24, 2022."

So the decision by the arbitration panel just means nothing if the award can just be annulled. Just sums up the EU really.