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Dark had stated that they would launch Prevent by the end of 2021. This is a fundamentally important addition to their offering of products. The vast majority of cyber-security customers would prefer to stop disruptive invasion of their systems altogether, as opposed to dealing with the issues internally within their systems once the incursion had taken place.

The results update is great news, but it states "In December, we delivered the first module of our new Prevent product line to early adopters. " This is no announcement of a full launch of Prevent - in fact it sounds more like one step on from User Acceptance Testing (UAT) to a wider but still limited customer test.

Great to see the shorters on this BB burnt this morning. They certainly make out that they are the great financiers of our time, gambling the sale of shares that they cannot afford to own, and now licking their wounds and saving their pocket money for their next foray into markets that they are incapable of understanding! Maybe they will be watching the Silence of the Lambs, looking for inspiration.

NSS - Really interesting - Shell is implementing its strategy "with pace," and the company buybacks from the Permian assets sale, from the update were going to take place "at pace." So the word "pace" seems to be in vogue at the moment. For me it implies that they want to be seen to be less pedestrian in their activities and strategy. Great! New Year, new Shell plc!

Once a dividend is paid out the cash has left the building - from the company perspective it is gone! Permian was the sale of an asset, which a number of investors felt reduced the size/capitalisation of Shell. Buy-backs are an excellent way of keeping that capital invested in Shell plc. Maybe they are being implemented "at pace" because Biden's Build Back Better initiative might spread across the Atlantic. It includes a 1% tax on buy-backs. This infers that the Democrats have done the maths & feel that buy-backs are sufficiently worthwhile for investors, for this tax to be absorbed, and investors will still benefit from buy-backs.

Biden's Build Back Better initiative is not done and dusted yet though:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/08/build-back-better-democrats-midterms

With a macro outlook Putin appears to have further secured control over 3% of the World's oil reserves, + gas, + coal, through Russia's intervention in Kazakhstan, a vast country the size of Western Europe. Russia's growing power and influence in the energy markets, currently helps to keep oil and gas prices high and in so doing supports the Shell plc strategy.

Inflation in the US was 6.8% in November 2021. This means that any company has to be making 6.8% more over the year just to stand still. COVID related debts are extraordinarily high, so that Governments have happily encouraged inflation initially to technically reduce these debts. If you hold $1 m dollars cash in the US for a year, it will be losing 6.8% a year and this is climbing.

Interest rates are almost the only weapon left in the Government Treasury tool-chests to reduce inflation, as they rise they cut demand from consumers and thereby growth in the economy. Another tool is to print less money to curb inflation - issue fewer bonds etc. 40% of the dollars currently in circulation had not even been printed a year ago! 40% of every dollar spent by the US Government is based on Government debt! US debt is reaching what many perceive as unsustainable levels & the debt ceiling has only recently been agreed by the US Government with a likely $2-5 billion rise.

Subsequently investors see interest rates on a continual rise until inflation is brought under some sort of control - Governments are not good at this, as it curbs their ability to spend and grow the economy. Interest rates obviously impact on companies that are heavily borrowed, not just growth companies or the Tech sector. Many growth or Tech companies are very liquid and make exceptional profits. Many old economy stocks are heavily borrowed coming out of the Panicdemic. One size does not fit all!

Darktrace will need to demonstrate that it has a robust route to profitability through its business planning & forecasts. As will its heavily indebted Tech contemporaries in the US. Sometimes the US appears to be the tail wagging the dog, but this is something of a glib cliche, as CPI was 5.1% & RPI was 7.1% in the UK last November. Interest rates rose as they will have to incrementally, taking care not to push us into recession, but this was hardly inspired by the US!

With Tik Tok and Grubhub invading their home space, Amazon must feel compelled to compete, and they definitely want to be in the last mile delivery space, or they would not have invested in Amazon Restaurants/Deliveroo in the first place. Effectively Amazon has to get the last mile delivery strategy sorted or it could undermine their whole business.

Their initial failure with Amazon Restaurants means that what they clearly saw as a business model that would work, actually failed, which they are not used to. They could have thrown money at it to resolve the issues, but decided their approach and strategy was fundamentally flawed & so withdrew. A very brave decision to close it down and walk away, but the reality is that they have probably withdrawn to regroup & come up with a strategy that will work.

Amazon has had plenty of time to sit back and appraise and evaluate this rapidly developing, fragmented & ultra-competitive market, look at lessons learned etc and the driving imperative must be that they need to commit to entering the market sooner rather than later. Amazon spent $8.45 billion on MGM, so the fall from favour of Deliveroo must make it vulnerable, if it is right for them.

Some very valid points PC worth emphasising that the ground has seismically shifted for now, away from overvalued growth and promises, companies to robust and safer, value companies. It doesn't look like the Tech sector is going to be a completely burst bubble, but valuations on both sides of the Atlantic have been re-appraised significantly downwards.

In November 2021 in the UK RPI was 7.1% and CPI 5.1%, with interest rates starting an incremental rise to combat this i.e companies need to make an additional 5,1% to just stand still! With the high-burn rate of many high-growth companies, investors now want to see a faster route to profitability, and an idea when this will happen. There needs to be strong evidence from results to indicate that Deliveroo's business model works, now that their feast on cheap capital is over.

Gas is not as green as grass though!

Yihaaa!!! New Year! New Shell plc! Now a great British company!

Riskingit: yes, worth posting Barron's view, as it seems difficult to argue with:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/buy-royal-dutch-shell-stock-pick-barrons-51640725353

Riskingit: A great investment over the years, particularly with the high quarterly dividend, sustained for so many of those years. For me oil was always going to power us out of the COVID inspired economic malaise. So the OP fell to unrealistic "panic lows in the below £9 arena 2 x in 2020-2021, dreadful for LTH's but fantastic in terms of opportunity for new investors.

The Board has to be praised for the speed of Shell's recovery, and for a behemoth it is heading for being lean and fit! From the start of November 2021, it looks like the new floor for Shell plc is around £16, and the floor for BP around £13. Without any bombshells I can only see an upside from there for Shell, bearing in mind that in November climbing inflation had hit 6.8% in the US & 5.1% CPI & 7.1% RPI in the UK. Also Interest Rates in the UK have started to rise in order to combat this - gently at first so that recovery post-COVID is not strangled becoming, recession too quickly.

For me the undervalued Shell SP looks to be well on track to hit £19-£20 by the Q4 2021 results announcement on February the 3rd 2022 & certainly by the Ex-Dividend date of the 17th February 2022. It just has to be a great start to the New Year for all of us.

The FT analysis is always worth bearing in mind:

https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/forecasts?s=RDSA:LSE

I'm sure Interactive Brokers were saying Shell would go to £22 this year, but cant find the article at the moment :

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/10-highest-yielding-ftse-100-shares-right-now-ii522416

NSS - a brilliant article & great counter to the "all energy will be green by tomorrow brigade," fossil fuels have fallen off a demand cliff & will die altogether within the next few years, & of course the Shell Board are shrinking the company to the point that it will have no value sooner rather than later!

Some of these investors should read and absorb this article. They will then have a fighting chance of developing at least one informed opinion to start the New Year with!

Regardless a great time to be invested in Shell. Alpha's analysis of Prelude would have been interesting. And a major thank you for highlighting all the articles that you do - they are greatly appreciated.

Yes, New Year, New Shell plc, first Board meeting in the UK today 31st December 2022, implementation date of name change to be announced w/c 24th January 2022, close of the final quarter today & with a consistently high oil price throughout, A & B shares unified 31st January 2022, sparkling (company hedging permitting) 4th Qtr Results 3rd February 2022.

Here's to a climbing share price towards the results & Permian distribution announcement, and hoping that BvB negotiated a shrewd deal with the UK Government to domicile Shell plc in the UK - doubtless he did. A lot to drink to so better get started!

It really depends on whether a head up your own 'rse pattern develops & one of the gang comes out with something meaningful or even tenuously related to DT analysis of any kind!!! Hopefully Santa will have some books on shares in his sack for the elves and troll-children on this BB.

The risk that you might stumble on something you know about has become the issue that you clearly don't! Presumably everyone on the Board has managed to work out that shares hold different risks, & used this to inform their decisions.

The ML situation is no longer technically a risk. It is an issue. You will know when a risk becomes an issue because it starts to bite you hard on the pedantic rse!

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/europe-gas-prices-hit-record-highs-on-russian-supply-lull-and-cold-weather-hqtlh38l9zqlvcc.html

Charles, yes no doubt ML is an immensely successful, ruthlessly determined, multi-billionaire disruptor and cyber genius. They are a very scarce resource and in hyper-demand worldwide.

The US could well attempt to crucify ML in their courts & then come up with an advantageous blockbuster plea bargain from their perspective. The Government should not let ML leave these shores, but stranger things happen. I agree that the results in January will be stunning. Hopefully they will breathe life into this heavily manipulated share-price.

I doubt if anyone will not accept that there are a vast range of widely varying financial impacts that might accrue to any one of the extensive range of outcomes that might result from the current ML risks and issues. What literally cannot be quantified, cannot be accurately & meaningfully reflected and accounted for in the SP.

The case against Mike Lynch is hugely complex rather than hugely simplistic. Since the IPO there have been numerous naive statements on this BB that the ongoing ML issues were fully reflected in the share price. Ask yourself how a situation without established facts, without any directional determination, and with completely unquantifiable outcomes can realistically be reflected in a company share price like DT.

The US Courts can be extremely punitive & vindictive, with very few not guilty verdicts in evidence! There are many examples, but one that stands out is what happened to BP at the hands of the US courts over the Gulf oil spill & there are many others.

ML only resigned from the Main Board of Darktrace in 2018:

https://www.businessinsider.com/mike-lynch-out-darktrace-board-criminal-fraud-charges-autonomy-deal-2018-12?r=US&IR=T

On the 14th April 2021 the FT was questioning exactly when ML left the Advisory Board of DT possibly contradicting statements in the IPO prospectus:

https://www.ft.com/content/5302ce7c-2d58-4e8b-843e-a181ee3a2bd1

On the 14th February 2021 major investment bank backer of the DT flotation UBS quit over the DT and ML links:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/darktrace-float-hit-as-ubs-quits-over-mike-lynch-links-2brxzzm6h

The list of suspect links &proven links between ML and DT is almost endless.

Although the Board and investors of DT would like there to be no link between ML and DT, there is absolutely no clarity on this, and nor will there be none unless it is eventually decided by the courts.

It could be.

The most recent SEC data as of May 2021,indicated there were 59 registered Alternative Trading Systems (a.k.a.: "Dark Pools"). After exiting the European shackles on Dark Pools, Britain's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) announced in December 2020 that asset managers and other investors could trade near unlimited amounts of shares in the dark.

To understand big trades that appear through smoke and mirrors at the end of the day, and do not appear to move the share price concerned dramatically, it is worth checking out Dark Pools:

Chicanery, duplicity, unfair advantage, insider knowledge, manipulation - of course not! Dark pools are private exchanges for trading securities that are not accessible by the investing public. Dark pools were created in order to facilitate block trading by institutional investors who did not wish to impact the markets with their large orders and obtain adverse prices for their trades.

Who bought them? Who sold them? An institutional investor can use a dark pool to sell a one million share block. The lack of transparency actually works in the institutional investor’s favor since it usually results in a better-realized price than if the sale was executed on an exchange.

In April 2021, dark pools executed about 13% of all U.S. equity trades, according to an analysis by institutional brokerage firm Rosenblatt Securities. In practice, dark pool trading provides some important benefits, such as the ability to trade a large volume of stocks while minimizing information leakage. There is some evidence that the US has been trying to limit the number of shares per trade in Dark Pools, because so many trades were being lost to the main exchanges. But the traders then just make multiple trades in the same share.

Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/european-stock-traders-place-their-blockbuster-bets-dark-2021-06-03/

Nasdaq:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/insight-european-stock-traders-place-their-blockbuster-bets-in-the-dark-2021-06-03

Goldman Sachs considers cyber-security a hot sector. Interesting views includes SentinelOne, but not Darktrace:

https://247wallst.com/apps-software/2021/09/14/goldman-sachs-sees-cybersecurity-demand-exploding-5-red-hot-stocks-to-buy-now/