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Bit of a musical interlude for all AVCT holders and traders alike...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlv672jqbtE
50% of all time highs?
Well this is where the traders and shorters can all work nicely in unison.
The traders can play the shorters' need to buy back shares by selling to drop the price to entice the shorters to start buying and buying back in as it grows ready to dump again the next day and the cycle continues.
Jupiter and Bronte have the means to do both of these jobs from within their own offices and a few opportunistic traders will no doubt be trying to play this volatility this week.
Will be more interesting as the stakes increase if we see a daily drop in Jupiter's short position.
If the big shorters like Jupiter and Bronte are on their way out, the amateurs and spread betters will be playing a dangerous game by not following suit.
We shall see.
There will be no shortage of people posting on here or sitting in the background willing to hand over their shares at a marginal increase from today (or a marginal increase from that point and so on and so forth). This market is just messy as hell.
Assuming there is no fundraise agenda - if Avacta get this right then they build some confidence in an entirely new audience withy deep pockets who don't bring the emotional baggage that we all have and they slowly start to accumulate. The price starts to go up gradually. There will be no shortage of short termists and traders out there willing to sell.
If that happens, the free float falls and eventually over time this stabilises for a bit and then will jump higher on future news as the major institutions and hedge funds aren't following The Bishop on Twitter.
Thanks Toukhan... Certainly not put off,. It's been a fascinating social observation.
Wyndrum - Not quite 2 years - Got in first in the 60s in April 20 - made a wee profit on NYCT and when it turned south the first time I moved all of that into here.
I've played a bit of money in and out of this over that period but always maintained a solid core holding out of belief for the future of what's possible. Driven here by Covid opportunity, but felt like the other pipeline of products make it a safer bet if the LFT doesn't quite work out.
If I'd known what I was doing I probably would have sold out at the top and done well and bought back in again now, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. I would have ridden NCYT all the way into the 12s, sold out bought into AVCT when the vaccine news landed, ridden that into the high 200s and sold and bought back in now, but I didn't because I couldn't see into the future.
I had a very small bet on SNG a couple of weeks before the 6x jump so that set a novice like me some very false expectations.
As someone still learning what they're doing, this last [coming up to] 2 years of being in Avacta has been a fascinating journey. The biggest learning curve has been navigating the posts with a clear agenda trying to swing things their way - some subtle, some not so subtle - either way there's a real art form to it that some do well and others not so much. The rest of it have to either ignore it completely or navigate our way through it to find something useful
Anyone else feel though that we've hit next-level deramping on this stock. that Bishop Fella over on Twitter has well and truly jumped the shark...
If the price is dropping on no apparent volume - that suggests to me that shorts are growing. That's what happened last time
Which leads to me another hypothesis (pure guesswork could be nonsense).
With an investor roadshow planned, it's reasonable to believe that will involve speaking to some major IIs about raising capital.
Any fundraise will need to be done at a discount to the current SP.
If you're a major II with the cashflow to short AVCT at scale, why not take advantage of the prevailing covid sentiment and lack of buyers at higher prices to drive the price down further to get an even bigger discount when the fundraise comes?
Most see the shorting as a lack of confidence in Avacta/it's products and many on here/Twitter like to ridicule them. Maybe they believe the same thing we all do, but have the capital to manipulate the buy in price even lower.
Or maybe that's just wishful thinking.
The ones missing are the stockbrokers holding shares for us lot. They'll filter that out on their own website
I'm so glad we were all able to congregate in the same thread here today to prove the point.
Can't disagree with the original point from Billy here, but the remping/deramping nonsense on here definitely amplifies things.
The share price itself is controlled primarily by the actions of a load of PIs with a broad range of capabilities here (I put myself at the lower end of that spectrum) and a couple of large investment firms who are happy to bet against Avacta and short it. The city aren't really involved in this - when was the last time we saw a TR1?(I might eat my words on that one in the next day or two)
The news Avacta puts out is interpreted by both of those groups and they take their positions accordingly.
As much as all the experts here on either side of that ramp line like to talk like they know what they're on about; have insights into the tech, know the market, Avacta's cash position, the behaviour of certain government ministers etc - we're all just making our bets as we see the potential outcome.
With so many PIs trying to make their way in these crazy markets the noise that follows any announcement is deafening and impossible to wade through - there are few who make strong reasoned arguments and with 700+ posts on here yesterday and god knows how many #AVCT tweets it gets very emotional and people react.
The ramping and deramping plays on people's emotions and causes even the most reasoned of us to question ourselves or get carried away so it definitely makes a difference, but you're right this is swinging on news and nothing else - the extent to which it swings is definitely influenced by the noise and those who post their ramp/deramp positions on here daily are building a brand and emotional equity that becomes very valuable to them on a day like yesterday as their handles are instantly recognisable in all of the noise!
Lots and lots of angry people today. Granted it's not nice to see such large swings, but given the position Avacta is in to come clean with that RNS today is the smart play both in the short and long term. If last year had turned out differently and we were currently shipping millions a week then it'd be a tougher call to take.
With HUA in place, assuming there were multiple sales conversations already ongoing, we've pretty much called out the entire competition for being inaccurate (at a time when the powers that be are already calling LFT accuracy into question), told the market we know how we can be more accurate - just give us a few more weeks/months.
Longer term. The only reason anyone should be invested in AVCT long term is for the IP. Given how little attention people pay to detail these days (think the recent gaslighting by Government brushing over the face at PD and claiming sour grapes on the part of UK Diagnostics businesses) - Smith is protecting the Affimer IP. It's new tech so he has to walk a fine line and can't give anyone the opportunity to shoot it down.
There are no guarantees here. I believe in the tech and even if today represents short term pain, there are so many reasons this could recover so to cut losses now would feel daft for me. But each to their own.
Yeah, that was odd.
My first guess was probably to satisfy some uk government requirement last year. Just like switching from saliva to nasal swabs.
Portion Down: “What are these Affy things you’re using, they seem a bit new fangled don’t they?
Al: “well they’re a proprietary new platform, superior to antibodies in almost every way”
Portion Down: “oh I see, well we’ve never heard of them so be a good chap and stick an antibody in there as well won’t you? Just to be sure”
Having visited this board daily for the last year I feel like someone got me a One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest experience last Christmas. Have a funny feeling I might get the same thing again this year.
Merry Christmas all.
Tweet tonight from the editor of the Yorkshire Post...
https://twitter.com/JayMitchinson/status/1470835350872461315?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
...I can recommend one to him in his own back yard...
..although he may change his wishes if he knew what a ride we had been on...
Well if we're going to be consistent - everyone bashing this stock is forever reminding us how we have to add significant time periods onto any Alastair Smith estimate of how long something will take...
Therefore, if he said testing will last 2-5 years - then we can reliably believe that it is more likely to be 5-10 then can't we?
Are they still short tomorrow is the big question. Any time the price moves upwards the big question is whether it is Jupiter buying to close the short.
If they're not then it definitely shows there are folk waiting on the sidelines for the right time to jump in.
Either scenario is positive for those of us "holding on to our golden tickets" (or whatever phrase one cares to use on this board)
I wondered how long it'd be before we got the entree, starter, appetiser, Amuse-Bouche metaphor.
Here's hoping. Fingers & Toes!
The SP chart today is the visual representation of being locked in solitary confinement in a cell bouncing a ball back and forth off a wall waiting for something to happen. Apt!
Very good Question, Bella, however on the point around the Boo Hoo Boys as shareholders, assuming they still are I can't imagine they'll care anywhere near as much about the short term SP for AVCT as we do, they'll be laser-focused on product delivery, revenue generation and long term value.