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They will have known full well this would happen. They will have read the no doubt long list of ranty negative 'know-it-all' questions submitted in advance of every investor presentation.
I would imagine they have set this Twitter account up to get some general traction and a timeline full of tweets well in advance of some good news so they can create some momentum and just put up with the juvenile nonsense in the meantime.
The website changes + new Twitter account suggests to me the Boo Hoo Medusa guys are now driving marketing strategy for Avacta and when it comes to marketing these guys know what they’re doing.
They’ve most likely got their logistical ducks lined up in the background and feel it’s time to make some noise.
Clearly “the market” is careful about speculative investing here after a few false dawns hence the sp staying stable but there are clearly things happening now.
We have wanted them to shout about their usps for some time - well here is the start. There is clearly going to be no free pass to riches through a monopoly government contract but if we’re going to have to compete then it all starts here.
The website changes + new Twitter account suggests to me the Boo Hoo Medusa guys are now driving marketing strategy for Avacta and when it comes to marketing these guys know what they’re doing.
They’ve most likely got their logistical ducks lined up in the background and feel it’s time to make some noise.
Clearly “the market” is careful about speculative investing here after a few false dawns hence the sp staying stable but there are clearly things happening now.
We have wanted them to shout about their usps for some time - well here is the start. There is clearly going to be no free pass to riches through a monopoly government contract but if we’re going to have to compete then it all starts here.
Totally agree Urbansea - I think the point I'm trying to make is the whole LFT game seemed to be pegged to a government contract, which would clearly have been very lucrative and was an obvious connection to a significant valuation if it came off. Clearly many people invested on that basis and when it seemed that opportunity had gone they ran for the hills.
I guess my point is just LFT alone if they can sell 45M per month would see a short term MCAP of £1.6B easily achievable in the short term, with significant upside beyond that.
£1.6B MCAP is more than double our all time high.
But then the guys in the car park at Gatwick Airport haven't heard of it so maybe it's all just a pipe dream after all!
Am In total agreement with what we're seeing in terms of action today and agree with the opportunity.
The thing I don't get though is why we seem to be discounting the LFT Opp (not you Myles, just generally focus sees to have switched to AVA6000 which was always the LFT insurance policy for investors)
Granted Covid has a shelf life, but if this works, then Avacta pivot into other endemic viruses and keep a tidy revenue stream, but:
If we're talking potential manufacturing volumes of 30-60M LFTs a month at peak (not guaranteed but that's what's been mooted, including by you) at £1 profit per test. that's £30-£60M in earnings a month or £360-£720M earnings per year. Even at the mid point of that - that is more than our current MCAP.
If the market starts to believe that is possible, what kind of P/E Ratio could we realistically trade off? Even at 3X which is low that would be an MCAP of £1.6 Billion.
Am I being crazy here as that maths looks good to me.
3.30 on the trading day after the threshold was passed.
Short positions that are above 0.1% and any changes to them must be reported, but sites like Short Tracker only publish anything above 0.5%
...For today's rise:
1) General optimism - Possible, recent good news on the likes of ABDX has stimulated the market with a tailwind of a rising price drawing previous previously twitchy PIs back in.
2) Leak - Again possible, it's happened before, but equally we've seen forward momentum in a day like this with nothing coming after it
3) Shorts closing. I know Jupiter topped up the short the other day, perhaps buoyed by the previous rise up to 120 that wasn't sustained. They've seen it dip below 100 and bounce straight back up now and they can't be planning a long term short position given the numerous other irons in the fire.
My guess - and I'm no expert - is we'll see Jupiter with a smaller or non existent short position by the end of this week. I reckon they closed out some of their position this morning to test the waters and see if there was enough trading to bring it back down again. The continued support convinced them to keep on closing.
I'd already done the maths on that scenario by 16.31. the calculator on my phone certainly looked more healthy than the HL app.
Appreciate the clarification Ophidian, certainly not hurling accusations, just pointing out the coincidence. This whole game is littered with smoke and mirrors and this board is littered with conjecture. We can do all that without the added personal jibes our esteemed collagues on here like to throw about. But that aside... Now we know.
spbhoy - would make perfect sense as a strategy - If you believed the price would go below 100 - try and ramp the price to 120, borrow more shares and sell them - then make even more money when you buy them back under 100.
But it's all academic anyway - because that's not what happened.
Quite the baller move that one.
Either they know something we don't or they're increasing and hedging a long position.
At the risk of invoking a troll attack - it's interesting we get a big rumour on Friday morning which stimulates buying activity at a higher price for Jupiter to sell their borrowed shares - almost as if these things are coordinated somehow.
Around 500k volume traded 11.55-12.00 when the price was at 120 - around the same price on the day Jupiter increased their short by 0.13% or around 325k of the outstanding share volume. Are they reducing their position and it's all actually a hedged long position?
In which case the negative sentiment many of us have assumed from the fact they have a reported short is actually them just covering their backsides on an existing long position.
All just speculation, but interesting.
Hedged position is a good shout @Cebo. If so I'd expect them to close out the increased short position around the 119-120 price they took it at last week to de-risk the short and enjoy the increase on the long position.
Agreed the volume is small @CovidO but it's the indication of sentiment. If an outfit like Jupiter open a short they do so to make money so they must have a view on a target low exit position and a position on where the price risks them losing money. A 10% rise in a day will get their attention given how fast this price could move on news.
The price is down and a load of PIs will have exited fearing losing too much money. Not because they are 100% convinced that the opportunity is over as the more aggressive folk on here would have you believe, but just that it might be over .
I guarantee many who have sold are all watching this price on a daily basis thinking they might still jump back in if it moves again.
The 0.52% short position reporting date corresponded to a price around the £1.60 mark -they increased that position to 0.63% on the 12th August which closed at 119.
By increasing they clearly thought it would push down materially below 100 and I wonder whether that push below 100 this week was an attempt to clear out stop losses @ 100 and see whether the MMS could push it down further to collapse it and create some volume by trying to get Jupiter to close their position.
The Medusa19 rumour today sounds promising, but I'm also mindful it could be a ramp to try and fight back at Jupiter to make them twitchy about their position.
If the MMs want to drive a bit of liquidity in this market to make some quick cash they'd do a lot better sticking the price back up to 280 than taking out to 100 stop losses - you'd see an awful lot of PI sells and I'm pretty sure Jupiter would be champing at the bit to buy and close down their short!
Looking at today's trade volumes in 5 minute increments There are 15+ 5 minute periods with bursts of 250-300k volume trades being reported
That's not thousands of PIs suddenly running for the hills (unless they've been inspired by the Olympic synchronised swimming and phoned round each other to create some elaborate pattern) - that's either a big holder dumping or it's a big shorter buying back/closing. Those spikes count for roughly 4 million of today's trades reported so far. That represents 1.5% of the total share volume.
Who knows Maybe Jupiter have closed down the short and then kept buying to go long instead to ride the rollercoaster they created back up?
If the short has changed we'll find out tomorrow/Monday. They have until 3.30 on the trading day after the threshold is passed to notify the FCA.
I agree Sharebel. A call to the broker/MM and ask them to acquire 2.5M shares at as low a price as possible.
In a buoyant confident market with a small free float the only way to attract the sells is to put the price up. In a bear pit like the Avacta shareholder population with a massive free float full of twitchy PIs who were after making some quick cash and can't effectively value the business or the opportunity, a general news agenda where noone knows what's coming next and some bad news for "similar looking" businesses.
With everyone waiting for an SNG-style RNS to blast the price overnight - a positive, but expected, RNS didn't shift the price positively and led to trading inertia the opportunity is right here to spook them into thinking everyone else is giving up on Avacta by driving the price down sharply to get the shares in and squeeze the last drops of value out of the short.
With the MMS making their money from the margin in the spread an opportunity to shift 2.5M shares with the Billy Bonus of switching some extras along the way as the price drops they'll be able to afford a bit of extra marching powder for the August pay-day night out
Either way its all guesswork for now. One way or another we'll find out.
And if the short is closing Gem you should expect the price to rise a bit over the coming days.
We'll see.
Whatever is happenning it is unfathomable to me that after consistent volumes day-after day throught late July and August a bunch of people woke up this morning and thought that's it I'm done, I'm selling up.
This is someone with a large holding dumping for whatever reason (never good but it's not the end of the world as some would have you believe or it's a short closing). This is City games 100%.
*Pick up a load of sellers...