Member Info for Genghis15

DC, well reminded. I knew I had seen the end Feb date posted somewhere, that was PC01's excerpt from the Stifel briefing. . Worth reposting the whole post, methinks.

"No, the new MIFID rules that exist make sharing of research a tough gig - but the opening paragraph says :
'Our unchanged thesis on HUR is that technical de-risking during the first six to nine months of production, i.e. by around ~YE19, should close the 66% discount to NAV (vs sector 27%) implied by our unchanged 130p target price. Today Stifel hosted a desk presentation from FD Alistair Stobie. The next attempt to hook up the production vessel, a precursor to first oil, should be around the end of February (weather permitting) while exploration drilling will recommence in April. No impact on valuation (Figure 1) or financial estimates.'
and
'Hookup possible from ~month end: HUR is waiting on replacement kit for a third attempt to hook up oil production vessel the FPSO Aoka Mizu to existing subsea infrastructure installed over the Lancaster oilfield (UK West of Shetland).

The spare should be available from around the end of February with a hookup attempt possible thereafter depending on the weather. As a reminder, a period of ~24 hrs with swell < 3 metres is required to attempt the operation.
We come away with more comfort the failure mode of the first and second attempts will not be repeated, i.e. was chance rather than evidencing systematic engineering failure.'

Worth noting " our unchanged 130p target price." , I think.
Hope this helps..."

I asked the co on 07 Feb, and they said "a few weeks" was a "reasonable estimate" of new rope delivery.

However, there are good reasons to think that the new rope would have been ordered after the first failure on 18 Jan, meaning "a few weeks" have now elapsed.

Fwiw, I expect the shipwatchers to spot something when it does arrive, within the next week I guess, but am hoping to be positively surprised!

See p12 below to verify LadySonia's $21 - $23 range.

https://www.hurricaneenergy.com/~/media/Files/H/Hurricane-Energy/documents/presentations/Hurricane%20Corporate%20Presentation%20-%204Q%202018%20SECURED.pdf

I stand corrected thanks 4 those putting me straight.

boblondon

$65 ?

WTI is only $56 atm, and likely less at the wellhead, $50 max, mb less,

So you are defo over egging your figures.

I think Mr Toad has it.

May need to register to read

https://on.ft.com/2SNzhu5

Dr m, I too think approval nailed on.

Also think this will fly later this week, whether news of partnering/ commercialisation or not.

I have contacted the company who advised the rope was on order (which we knew) and that they did not yet have a firm delivery date.

When it arrives, they will be out asap to fit it, weather permitting.

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/5a225ab6-dd5a-4309-a7e7-ecf840004b9c/Reabold_Resources_Final.pdf

I am sure HUR r waving every stick they can at BW.

But when you find your contractor is letting you down, that does not always do the trick.
Good practice is not learnt suddenly.

I imagine the shipwatchers will have a good handle on it.

MH
C'mon, nobody knows what the weather will b doing on 19th, 12 days hence.
Even more important, we haven't got a new rope yet anyway.
I can't see hook up coming b4 March now, I'm sorry to say.

Of course.

But it is hard to see what leverage HUR have over what BW do on their own boat.
Hopefully there will b contractual penalties, but that is small comfort.

IJWT
I know strictly u r correct in that ultimately HUR is responsible 4 sub contractors, but most here must know that sometimes contractors jerk around even the best run principals.

I suspect that is true here.

Nigwit, afaik hook up was only attempted twice.

If you know of a 3rd occasion, please advise when that was?

BNB
No need for a rant!
I was just pointing out some financial facts of life.
Fortunately we are still within budgeted timeline, so this lost income is not crucial just very annoying.

If delay were to go into Q3 for FOIL it would be; bcos cash is king, and HUR would be handing out the begging bowl and b v vulnerable to a cheap TO.

I dunno what background you guys are from but its cklearly not finance. thye costs are Bluewater's, so irrelevant to HUR.

The delay is lost revenue. The oil that hasn't come out in FY 2018 or 2019 will not come out until decade hence, it is truly lost to the company.

You can hold a different view if you like, but you will be wrong. Dangerously so, bcos this is an investment bb, these are shares in a company, and misunderstanding basic finance will get you in trouble.

Lost.

the future timeframe in which that oil will b produced is irrelevant to this company, it could be 40 years hence.

Sorry, tinlode, but from an investment perspective that's how it is. Cash is king, and what we have missed out on in the last few months is truly lost.

I have no knowledge of these matters, but imagine that each "rope" is bespoke, fabricated to the stress parameters it needs to cope with, and possibly other factors I can only guess at, such as compatibility with the AM's winch, etc, etc.