RE: Bp debt reduction q1 thoughts?22 Mar 2021 07:27
Dividend vs Buybak
After declaring the dividend will not rise in 2021, BP have postured themselves to produce accounts just after RDS. So I take it that BP will have a day or two to consider matching a dividend hike to their nearest rival.
Once the 35 billiion debt figures has been reached, we will know as the buyback will be declared, and that could be anytime, also giving BP a good hand to declare progress to investors.
But which is better for shareholders, a buyback or a dividend ?
With the higher oil price the debt target will be reached much sooner, I suggest May or June as the buyback start, but this is a key to look for when Q1 is reported.
Roughly...
A billion dollars on dividend equates to a 4.9 cents (3.5p) dividend.
A billion dollar buyback at an SP of 320p and market cap of £65Bn ($4.44 & $90.35Bn)
means instead of 20.35Bn shares in issues , there would be 225m less giving 20.125Bn MC.
Translated, the same market cap of 65Bn would make an SP of 323.
So a dividend would then be more beneficial for us at an SP of 320.
An SP of 300p and MC of £61Bn, and a billion dollar buyback at 300p, new equivalent SP of 61/(20.35-.24)=303p
An SP of 290 an MC of £59Bn, new equivalent SP of 59/(20.35-.248)=293.5p
For the current US$ to GBP There is a sweet spot where the uplift from the a buyback would be the same amount as an equivalent dividend, and that is at around 290p.
Without disaster and maintaining and oil price in the 60s,
290p is surely the floor in our trading range.