How can we get out of this mess.19 Feb 2021 11:43
Im down 77% as I imagine most people. This is how I see it.
1. Bahamas Oil fields. I don't believe that P1 has been a success, I am of the opinion it has been almost a total failure. I am of the opinion that BPC has found very small amounts of oil and the reason why the drill lasted so long was that they simply did not have anything to show. I don't think they have any decent quantities of commercially recoverable oil whatsoever and nowhere near 50 million barrels being stupidly quoted. If they had found for argument sake 100m barrels of oil they would have announced it in an RNS. Why wouldn't they? If they had found 50 m barrels of oil. They would have announced it. Why wouldnt have. They have in my opinion found traces of oil in the drill. They may have found a "working petroleum system" but this could mean anything and like the vast amount of RNS issued is full of conjecture and the words are used to hide the failure of the drill. Do I believe there is any chance of a farm-in by a major or supermajor. Absolutely no chance and anyone clinging on to this hope is living in dream world. Ask yourself this? Why would an oil major let's say Exxon, for example, want to get involved in a farm with a company that has never been successful since it has been founded in discovering oil of any commercial quantities. Why would Exxon or another oil major want to spend $40 million - $50 million on a joint venture with BPC and give BPC say 30% of the profits when it could buy the junior partner for a lot less than that and take 100% of the profits. BPC market capital is about £35m. Why would the major simply let BPC licenses expire and then contact the Bahamas government and renegotiate? Would a major want to even get involved with a PR disaster and become entangled in a lawsuit with environmentalists and all the bad publicity that comes with it. Exxon certainly wouldn't being an American company under a Biden presidency. I think we have to accept the fact as shareholders that the Bahamas oil fields project is a non-starter. Its a dead duck and we have to look at other options in which the share price may rise. Saffron/T&T - Cerp Assets.
1. Are we going to drill these oil fields? As shareholders, we can live in hope. Do we trust the CEO and board of directors and believe they have the capability of making profits from them. This is the $64000 question. 2. Have we sufficient funds to drill these oil fields. I don't think no one on this BB is confident of this. Its going to be a tough long road. Do I buy more shares and average down and hope the company can turn it around. I have little faith in the directors' trustworthiness but dont see any other option. Are we going to go bust? Please someone on here explain the chances of this happening. We are all in a corner between a rock and a hard place. I really dont want to average down but cant see any other option of getting some of my money back but obviously concerned we could go under. GG