Member Info for GaiasKidney

Hi.

100k cash realised and being put to work as speculative. Here, RLD, SML, ENQ. So far. One to two year view.

Like this co and the recent emphasis change.

Good luck people.

GK.

What a great shame and so much promise. Time to move on.

I wish all the best and good luck to All ahead, it's goodbye here.

GK.

People need to grasp that this is a 'reactivation' of the London presence of SMIF No2. Not 'old news'.

New to mainland UK. From Jersey FC036968, 27/12/19:

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/FC036968/filing-history

Old (dormant). BR022056, no docs:

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/BR022056

They wouldn't bother doing this reactivation if there was no reason ............ IMO.

GK.

Appy.

SMIF No2 ltd has opened a subsidiary office in mainland UK on 27/12/19 with the same name as the head office (that incorporated 16/4/19, Jersey).

There may be something in it ..... or not!

GK.

2031!?

I'll bring m' Zimmer..............and fill the legs with gin.

G'night.

GK.

PS: I suspect getting to first P and then a full debt offer could be significant! 2-3y on. Might even last that long!!

Evening KoH

You keep repeating this:

" ..BOD and CF were responsible and failed to .... maintain shareholders value to date"

yet I've never seen that as an obligation the co have ever signed up to or even stated as an ambition.

All they say on shareholder value and the financing strategy (this from the 'mission statement' - if you can bear to read it!) is:

"EXECUTE A FINANCING PLAN THAT DELIVERS RETURNS FOR SHAREHOLDERS
The Company has taken a rigorous, phased approach to executing the financing plan. At each stage of development, appropriate capital has been raised to deliver the next development milestone. The Company is focussed (sic) on shareholder value and pursuing the most efficient and cost-effective capital structure to develop the Project."

It would be great (and so so much less stressful I'm sure if 'focused' also obliged 'maintaining', but it doesn't.

If they succeed in retaining ownership (the 'if' that perpetuates the present problem), even if it results in an ultimate level of further dilution that Auberry (gloomily ;-) ) predicts then aisi those invested pre mid '18 (and still retaining) will still see a decent return. But what they won't see is the sp getting back to those mid '18 levels on the, much discussed here, 12 month view.........Perhaps that's the real issue here for many?

I trust it is well understood this is a 15-20 year project at least before full cash returns can come back to holders and so full value arises? Started with Fraser bringing YP to Sirius in 2011, a few years yet to go.

Sleep well.

GK.

"appease their own consciences by having someone else to blame for their own investment shortcomings."

...and there it is.

I do hope not all of the potential partners are waiting on any statement/offer from gov. If so then we're stuffed IMO.

Prev gov offer from 1/19 still holds fmu.

Accept the need to dilute before moving on.

Soon reckon.

GK.

Hi Apply.

Your 21-27 very possible IMO, called streaming. See my 25/11 and https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/05/04/what-is-gold-streaming.aspx

ATB.

GK.

..shareholder value"

This from the "Strategic review objectives". Via the route:

"Funding sought:
Strategic investor
Financial investors"

Detail:

"Strategic investor process - A number of parties have
expressed interest and are actively engaged in due
diligence.
Financial investor process – discussions ongoing with
potential investors."

Timeline:

"Execution window through to the end of March 2020"

If Fraser can achieve this then I think the most effective way would be, 1/ find and announce the partner first with a decent part of the cash requirement offered and the potential for it to be upped, 2/ have a placing/OO for the balance. ....The sp will be far higher then than Casa's (always inevitable) pessimistic appraisal.

Early night.

Don't expect to have to wait long now.

GK.

Thanks Chem and HNY to you.

Good to have a reminder of how important to Sirius' customers the P4 product is turning out to be.

ADM (with buying up to 2mt/y of P4 over a first 7 years) have got a good deal from Sirius as far as we know of around $140 - 150/t. When it is noted that from reports Boulby are selling their less developed product (chippings) now at £150/t ($195) and demand just keeps rising, one can see the ADM have a lot to lose if the Woodsmith mine ends up in another co's hands and their deal with Sirius is not honoured.

This will also apply to the other customer deals. With these rising to some 13.5m/y with production ramp up it adds up to around $4bn of sales to year 5 for Sirius, but if P$ was being sold at what it appears Polysulphate is going for that would be nearer $6bn. A real $2bn difference and also certainty of supply and pricing lost for them.

So I find it interesting that a certain character (or indeed a few) never want to mention the huge incentive Sirius' carefully nurtured portfolio of customers all have to not let this project fall out of the hands of the present owners.

Will they stump up to insure that? Who knows. Sum of their valuations are? WS requirement is?

All seems a bit logically obvious to me

https://siriusminerals.com/poly4/sales-agreements/

We'll see.

ATB.

GK.

Truth and experience?

I'll take SRK's view on that well over and above the comments of those in the lap of the threatened competitor any day. No disresdpect to you though chaps.

https://siriusminerals.com/investors/stage-2-financing/equity-and-convertible-bond/

Secs 10.6 & 10.7. Extensive work on the viability of the 13mt case. Feasibility of the 20mt expansion is also developed. Damand is obviously there. Boulby cannot keep up even with 50%+ per year ore lift growth*. They are creating the market that in (not alot of) time they will be unable to satisfy.

*Ten years @ 50% on 1mt? 130mt (Boulby published max output expectation = 3mt) If Sirius can get 20mt out it will sell.

GK.

HNY All.

Hope you get rid of that pot asap FFC.

Hard getting the fitness back, be stuborn…....... CF I think that could apply there also.

GL

GK.

There is an obvious certainty to this:

"It might actually be that negotiations are going on with those that actually believe in Sirius."

Fred. Yes. Many stakeholders in Sirius over many areas. Little doubt a careful nurturing plan from the co to do such.

And any notion that if an one or more of these groups are to invest they will be a kind of 'white knight' on some “white horse” is claptrap of high order. They will take a part, probably a very large part of this mine.

This 'sharing (nicely??) that is now forced on Sirius is the end game of Stage 1 financing aisi, where St2 (promoted from the getgo as plain debt - until it wasn't) has never got past the market balking against it......shame, was in hope.

I guess we all understand now that until the major risk is removed (shaft sink) St1 style of money grabbing by Sirius can only come from issue to either the market (that avenue is presently in effect closed) or from a partner, again highly likely taking equity.

I expect a deal. I expect many LTH wil be horrified by the butallity of it that I also expect. But even if just 10% of the value at WS remains with the present holders I will be happy..............Because I've had a go at looking at the sums....and note how it's going up the road.

Call it 'pseudo expertise’.............or just being patient.......realistic?

Jan seems an obvious time to start with the disclosures. Something like Sept '16 with a (multiple rns) process to bring the sp away from abnormal levels.

GL holders.

GK.

PS: moors were great, much activity still going on.

Sometimes Buckyboy, just rarely you say something worthy of a thumb.

Let's wait for the RNS ladies and gentlemen and perhaps take a a well deserved break from the constant monitoring and scrabbl;ing onto the merest snippet presented. Fraser if nothing else is the master salesman and is a past master at setting up a game of musical chairs - he's raised a phenominal $2bn+ so far on this one project. The game is on again, all that is diferent is that the chairs have to be bigger...........and the prizes on offer now have to be grander. Eminantly doable IMO. He will not give any hint of giving up until (if it so transpires) he is forced to give up.

Of away to the other end of god's own mesen. A climb of the iconic 'mountain' sounds good...and whist atop a careful listen with ear to the ground and maybe a hint of sound of munching mudstone from the namesake beast deep away down below the bank?

Jan is soon.

ATB All.

GK.

T vision

Most moving and honest post of the day, no, last six months.
Puts the rest here to shame.
Best of luck to you ahead.

GK.

Aubury

"Many of the folk on here are pensioners!!!"

Astonishingly true..........and well worthy of numerous '!'

It's a twenty year project. Surly understood from 17/1/11?

There's a clue as to what's ahead when I said 'av' in 'av ARoR'.

ATB.

GK.

Hi Aub.

In my book it's either a twenty year investment or for risk dabblers. Jam today? No. Agreed 2030 is my est for 20mt production and then debt stability, with the present envisaged plan.

On that with a 20% present holders' retention that gives an av ARoR of ~30% plus then over 100% future yield. But if you can't wait................

GK.

Morning

This extraordinary figure is the upper bound Sirius has identified as the total global market opportunity for polyhalite as a fert:

"Market opportunity
POLY4 has significant market opportunity and the ability to reshape the fertilizer market. Its unique multi-nutrient content enables a wide range of options for substitution of existing fertilizer products. It is ideal for NPK blending and can reduce blenders’ input costs and improve farmers’ yields... The total global market opportunity for POLY4 is 440 Mtpa."

https://www.poly4.com/poly4/market-opportunity/

Polyhalite is now being sold by ICL across the world from Boulby with supply being fully (and avidly afaict) taken up by growers. A search for > 'Boulby polyhalite tonnes' will flag how fast production at the mine is increasing - first extracted 1mt reached in 2017, 58kt in the month of July '19, over 75kt in Nov just gone. A rapid rate increase. Their 2020 1mt next year target will be exceeded I'm sure. But also is found in the reports is that there is no intention to ever go beyond 3mt/y and that by 2030.

This is obvious, because they cannot, their shaft capacity won't support much more than 3mt, the rail connection to port most definitely will not:

https://i2-prod.gazettelive.co.uk/incoming/article10433084.ece/ALTERNATES/s810/JS60476353.jpg

without a massive infrastructure investment.

However ICL's now extensive polyhalite marketing programm combined with the huge identified market size potential out there will creat an ongoing demand that will in time surly hugely exceed Boulby's far far smaller maximum output capacity. This I think is the prospect that will be of far more import to those who are to invest in the Sirius Woodsmith mine than I'm afraid anything that may come about from lobbying politicos on this mine project. There are no potential votes to lose, the election is past. Five years to the next? Today is about selling a stake to a partner to cove shaft sinking, not about possible late stage cover on debt that will only be sought post the derisking of the shafts.

Some numbers to end on:

23mt*/440mt = just 5%. *WS + Boulby max production.

Full nutrient value of poly $220/t (if demand exceeds supply, pricing will move to?).

WS total all costs Opex is less than $80/t - SRK.

Say 2/3rds of the $140/t earnings goes to divis once debt is stabilized.

Say the present investor base retains a pessimistic just 20% of the mine ownership by production - a deal has to be done, calculate your divi per share @ 20mt..... and expected sp.............looks good to me!

Sub 2y to First Polyhalite.

GK.

Ten year chart shows a pre '16 av around 1.6, since it's pretty settled around 1.3. In '16 the market promptly priced in the change for UK. UK net imports, the balance of payments has to be controled by UK alone, that can only happen (which it has) with a lower rate to move the balance to more exports.

Some things are beyond simple.

The advantage is for Sirius. A comparison is the rise of palm oil production: WRT US/Europe oil crops higher production per unit area of land (compare Sirius WS Opex), produced in countries with low costs, wages and currencies (be your own judge as to where England's North is going on that).

GK.