Member Info for GaiasKidney

Sun 18-31.

"CF is ok if he looses all his shares....any new company can issue him equivalent share options"

This statement is risible and aisi can only come from someone wishing to sow division between SHs and the CEO and posting such can only be motivated by a basher wanting to bash the stock further while it is down.

If the present financing plan - the only one on the table - does not work and this goes to administration and SHs are wiped out there is no way a new owner would be rewarding a failed previous boss with what is presently over 1% of a co that once financed and built by them will ahead be worth £10bn plus.

£100m + rewarded? Zero prospect what so ever. More like if took on at all getting one fifth of present renumeration if lucky.

Like genuine holders here Fraser has put significant resources in..and time. Ten years of his life so far. But as is the case for SHs in this he has no guarantee of getting rewarded until the earnings come in a debt is stabilized.

So no, his position today is very much aligned with holders. Those who like to whisper instead that there is division......? Smells like a basher, walks like a basher, talks like a basher....it's a basher.

GK.

With the co very set on getting this done by end this month for the obvious reason that they stated the money goes too low if left until later and that there is now only two clears weeks left of Sept. I don't think there is time left to change the offer.

This goes as descibed or they have made one horlicks of a mess up.

I think the position taking that has obviously been going on over the last week is from players who grasp this and so conclude this IB will be going through. A more sophisticated analysis than just FOMO.

We will see soon enough. Nothing by end week coming and 'fear' again will certainly take hold imo.

GK.

Morning WW

Black Rock also publish an Ishares index for US high yield corporate:

https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251833/ishares-high-yield-corporate-bond-ucits-etf#chartDialog

as you prob know. Though there is no yield chart you can get the total return chart (in effect an inverse). Six month view nicely demonstrates why it was getting difficult on 6/8 for Sirius to get a maiden bond away.

Since then what the market is willing to pay for high risk US listed co debt has risen sharply.

Like any serious investor Fraser looks to be timing his sale to maximise returns. As the bond selling at these levels should now go at a lower yield than was being demanded pre the pull. That is important as all future bonds - $2.5bn maybe up to $3.5bn - will be priced against what coupon they have to pay for the first. The lower ahead that debt servicing burden is the better for SHs.....Those that havn't lunched that is! Of which..or losing it..

All. Re Sept. Its very clear and very simple and stated many times by the co. They will have to slow the build if the knew cash is not there by then. Highly damaging for the project, highly damaging for SHs. Duff plan.

GK.

Hi Foxy.

"..we will see an impact on the SP unlike anything we have previously experienced."

It makes me feel far too old and jaded but the last H of 2010 repeated would be something to see.

Low then 1.7p, six months on 21, 13 fold.
Low just 7.6. 13 fold 99p............We can but dream.

G'night.

GK.

For the maybe 5% who are interested. US junk window is open and opening further for Sirius.

Yesterday's figures out, B down .02 at 5.89 but again the higher risk end CCC down more, .05 at 11.84.

Sirius BoD have very much nailed their colours to the mast (see prospectus etc) to have this all (ie the RCF 'Event') resolved this month. So I expect things to get pretty negative if the bond has not gone by end next week.

No pressure then.

HAGWA.

GK. >Pub!

Max

The world needs risk takers.

We would not have a project to invest in at all if it was not for risk takers. They know that even though they will not lose 'everything' they will non-the-less have lost a huge chunk of their lives if this all fails or at this advanced stage it is taken from them.

I strongly support what they are doing and from that am willing to also take a far larger risk than is apperently allowed under 'the first rule...'

Reckless? A judged risk from the evidense. Clear eyed? Very. Complaining about ones own decision? Never.

ATB.

GK. First rule...Whos?

Afternoon.

Some may recall this. A very long time back when Sirius, under the new regime did the move from 'multiple project development' to concentrating on this single project, it was pointed out by someone far more sage than me, I cannot recall who now, that they knew of zero examples of small explorer/developers ever taking a potash project to production whilst also retaining control for shareholders through out.

That reality may well hold true still. But today it looks to be a record that may just about to be shattered in a few days.

This I believe is the primary reason there is such press cynicism toward what these upstart Ausies are trying to achive. .....You never know "crashing through barriers" may once again arise from its ignominious ashes and come back into fashion. ;-))

GK. I can feel an early beeroclock coming on!

Morning LoM

Bring up the 1/5/19 prospectus and do a Ctrl F > 'September' and you will soon see the importance of having this resolved by the end of this month the co puts on this. first hit, p4:

"..escrow account
and will be released to the Company upon the occurrence of the
Stage 2 Debt Event {the DE requires the bond to have been sold] (which is intended to occur no later than the end of September 2019),.."

10 more hits before you even get to Part 2 'Risk Factors'..........Now THAT should be carfully read by all.

Cheers.

GK.

Hi Wadsk

Typical rail car = 60t
Typical train = 35 cars
2kt per run.
20mt = 10k runs per year = 30 per day. It's 24/7/365 doable with a heavy grade two track line and capex would be less. But it would not have been very nice for the nieghbours or the landscape so the Park planners ruled it out at the outset.

GK.

Not followed that up Jack.

I expect as soon as any media clock Sirius as being back in the market it will explode viral.

GK.

Indeed Chem

I think Sirius and JPM will not be courting media attention this time around, but instead working up the list of those who showed interest before the pull and doing the phones to others explaining how it must surely be 'so in their interest...'

Time will tell...........Hopefully not a lot more of it.

Cheers.

GK. How long have we been here? ;-/

Again more interest in the high risk end of junk.
B yield up .06 at 5.91 whilst higher risk CCC yield still reducing, down .08 at 11.84.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A3HYCEY

Also a lot of deals coming in at the high yield end:

"High-yield issuers are taking the baton from their high-grade counterparts on Thursday with the number of junk-rated borrowers hitting the market today potentially reaching the double digits."

http://www.ifre.com/

There is a chance that on that list is............??

GK.

Jack

That point on the historical situation I gladly accept as being in error. I shall correct it with one additional word I should have included:

''If Sirius were having to [now] rely on the domestic private retail investor base for this finance''...

For this to move on to project completion it is absolutly crucial that Sirius can apply sucessfully to the debt markets for finance. As all the capex build money required cannot (I cannot emphasise 'cannot' enough) be raised from the present investor base. It has to be accepted that Sirius has moved on from seeking financially beneficial support from guv. The time is not available anymore.

Historically you are of course correct. Pre St1 in total and between St1 & 2 in part Sirius, as a small but ambitious developer had to go to the issue market. However the scale of cash burn now to complete this build cannot be covered that way.

The only way now for present investors here is to accept the debt route is the only way that does not pretty much totally destroy their investment, but should instead provide a decent return in time - the, dare I say it? J curve.

Afraid I can't agree on your logic on signing as there is no way it can achive its described aim and its continued publicity perpetuates a negative distraction for the co.

AIMO & ATB.

GK.

Hi Jack (and for All thinking this can be of any benefit).

"Very surprised by some of this mornings posters rejecting signing the petition ... but surely not by the genuine pi owners. "

I'm informed (and it is also the case with myself) that many of the long termers here that I respect keep them selves well informed are in regular contact with the co. Feedback I have says the co are surprised by the amount of representation going to gov re Sirius financing and are particularly pointing out that non of it is coming from them and a this crucial time with getting the bond away, they find these repeted representaions unhelpful.

It is also obvious from this depatartmental reply posted earlyer:

"On 12 March 2019, the company announced that it was pursuing an alternative financing proposal. It would not be appropriate to comment on commercially sensitive matters."

That gov has no inention of interfering with financing Sirius are set on achiving right now.

If Sirius were having to rely on the domestic private retail investor base for this finance I would be very worried that there are people out there petitioning the gov to insure this financing as it just spreads a mistaken idea that what Sirius are actually trying to complete right now will fail.

Luckily Sirius are going to a market that is not so febrile, short termist and greedy as the UK retail investor base is but are instead going to international proffesional longterm project investors who will do there due dilly by looking at the project not those who are panicking over their exposure for guidense on whether to buy in.

Just my thinking.......But also I strongly conclude that it is the thinking of YOUR co. So let them get on with it.

GK.

Something in the air per chance?

GK.

Junk yields
B 5.85 down .03
CCC 11.92 down more .08.

It appears appetite is move up the risk level.

Less getting in the way for the SM IB by the day. I'm thinking quite a few in many places are going to be severely caught on the hop.

GK.

Codes. Oh dear, oh dear.

Alphanumeric this:

9 20 19 16 1 18 1 14 15 9 4 2 21 12 12 19 8 9 20.

GK.

Now Trinny. I should sooo leave the pedantry to others who are just that much more (self) qualified...But........:

"give me the commodity that money just can't buy ...'Time'."

Then...Aghhh, I should know better.........you go on to describe how the wealth that WILL come from this investment will give you ..err..exactly that..............Sorry :-/ :-))

Now I've been thinking about this park bench. I think I'll buy one....and a park to go put it in!.....Hmm.

'Dear Liz

Hello (I'm not a Russian oligarch or D Trump).

I'm sure, as so many of us do you anticipate in Britain soon arriving division and economic hardship bordering on destruction. From that and with these cash strapped times to come would you consider flogging off a park from your, umm portfolio?

St Jimmys would be nice. I only want to rest up on a quiet bench in a small corner somewhere, so i would be very glad if you wanted to still look in, any time. I would give you a set of keys. I'm sure you would still want to keep and eye from over the back fence on that reprehensible disembler presently holed up in that cul de sac, no10 I think and also probably the rest of those chancers down that road.

Anyhow if you decide...

You ever loyal

Mr K.

PS: hmmm, 'cul de sac'! Now that's an idea! You could bring that back you know.'

G'night.

GK.

If needs be:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/adv/products/d/jpmorgan-high-yield-fund-a-4812c0779#/portfolio

+$8bn holdings. 10% of Sirius IB? No prob...if they want.

GK.

Dull but important - 5.89.

Still trending down.

...........Get it flogged!!

GK.