Member Info for GaiasKidney

"...that we are vulnerable to T/O."

Hi SW

I'm thinking more and more that presently (and probably all the way to the Peidmont build finance decision) Kolff has no interest at all in any T/O approach. I also think this is made unlikely by the structure of the shareholder base. AISI this will be far better in the long run for holders as this now has 10 to 20 bag written all over it on a 2 to 3 year time scale.

May explain recent dips though as those hoping for fast bucks from a potential offer are likely moving on.

Rewards for the patient.

ATB.

Latest RSC vid with Kolff informative on his thinking, he is growing well into the job.

Progress on the chain build.

Trades? = zero.

If they can get this together there will be a point where this becomes valued on a completely different basis. Reckon that will be sudden.

Two observations stood out for me:

" Unless we allow a freely floating spodumene price to eat into the margins of mid-stream processors, then the urgency to invest in new upstream supply may remain artificially supressed"

AISI any new contracting is now largely moving in favour of suppliers and so rising up nearer to spot price, but as we all know it takes many years to get new supply producing.

And a hypothetical example of a formula structure for supply deals connecting spod and hydroxide index price. Which I think has similarities to what we have. Showing interesting numbers. Both blog 2.

3 part blog

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/spod-wars-how-should-lithiums-upstream-priced-1-peter-hannah

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/spod-wars-how-should-lithiums-upstream-priced-2-peter-hannah

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/spod-wars-how-should-lithiums-upstream-priced-3-peter-hannah

.

AJB quoting fine for me for dummy trades either way. They are aware of the sedol change.

No intention of trading this. It's a hold for the multiples end game.

Because of the way demand is exploding predictions now are for 60% of motor sales being EV and a fleet total of 300m EVs by 2030

https://www.iea.org/reports/electric-vehicles

https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/african-explorer-eyes-australian-potential/

See them two doing a 'it come away in my hand mum' with the ASX bell? Highly funny.

Press clippings coming in.

The fundamentals will again resume dominance soon enough. Full production can be sub 30 months, maybe sub 24. What was the last spod auction at again? Just last week!

Definitely sit tight unless now convinced that this risk off period heralds the reversal of the EV green transition.

Not my thinking.

There is always the post office, can get 2% now. Only a not great 8% below inflation!

Most times get a better price buying on limit. Buy in chunks.

Worked well today.

Only very rarely been let down by AJB in volatile times.

Atb.

Have to buy.

Dips can't be ignored.

Gla

9B. Yes my typo. '23.

From comment from both Hooper and Klein that if Peidmont by 2025 are selling on (to China, pre LHP2) both NAL's and Ewoyaa's offtake volumes at around present spod spot - 7k was mentioned - they look to be concluding Peidmont will have EBITDA around $1bn. With that and knowing volumes for both deals and the price paid to NAL for their spod I'm calculating that with spot at 7k Peidmont will be paying the Ewoyaa co .....a not small...... 4k per tonne of SC6..... NICE.

What they say on pricing from the ALL/PLL deal

"Offtake pricing will be determined via a formula, which is linked to the prevailing price of lithium products, ensuring IronRidge captures value-add margins".

But not the ratios or floor/ceilings.

Half production ~128kt/y. ALL PFS

"...average 255,000tpa 6% lithium spodumene concentrate ("SC6") production"

I assumed revenue- cost would be about 100m more than earnings for Peidmont.

I'm wondering if this is how the RK boys are thinking?

Brindle, COO Peidmont saying FiD for Ewoyaa scheduled for near end '24.

Another useful interview by RK.

Estimated value: "DSO Fines Sell Price, LOM Average, FOB Ghana US$/t $85". p8

And from p25 - products volumes in table 3:
"Table 3: Estimate of potential products
Product .............Average Annual Quantity (tpa) ..........% Li2O
Spodumene Concentrate ...................255,000 ................6.00
DSO Fines from the plant ....................300,000 ........... 1.2 - 1.5

Though at the start of that section is:

"Products
Due to the current buoyant lithium market conditions, considerable interest has been shown from potential off-
takers in DSO streams or sources of lower-grade materials from the plant."

Reckon there will be a fair bit more earnings than that estimate from those fines!

Misread that . RoM the same spod production lower:

"12.5-year mine life, 2Mtpa conventional dense media separation (“DMS”) processing facility with average
255,000tpa 6% lithium spodumene concentrate (“SC6”) production."

SS had 300k.

Being conservative was probably sensible though all know spod prices are very likely to remain multiples of 1350 for many years ahead. Noted that the RoM is increased from the SS for the same sp6 production - lower recovery? Higher fines ratio? But good to see little change in the very low OPEX .

Next for Ewoyaa is Peidmont moving with the cash for the DFS. Should have that completed in around six months. With the following construction decision from Peidmont the valuation should be some multiples above now making the £30 - 40m I expect Atlantic will need to cover their half of the increased CAPEX etc pretty trivial to raise.

A decent rise today on a quite reserved PFS, bodes well for ahead.

GLA.

https://youtu.be/HeBvSpZMMfo

"ASX / MEDIA ANNOUNCEMENT Tuesday 20 September 2022
Results of the 9th BMX Auction
IMPLIED PRICE OF US$7,708/DMT (SC6.0, CIF CHINA)
Pilbara Minerals Limited (“Pilbara Minerals” or the “Company”: ASX: PLS) is pleased to
announce the results of its latest spodumene concentrate auction, held via its digital
Battery Material Exchange (“BMX”) platform, earlier this afternoon.
A cargo of 5,000dmt at a target grade of ~5.5% lithia was presented for sale on the digital
platform, with delivery expected from mid October 2022.
Strong interest was received in both participation and bidding by a broad range of qualified
buyers with a total of 22 bids received online during the 30-minute auction window.
Pilbara Minerals intends to accept the highest bid of US$6,988/dmt (SC5.5, FOB Port
Hedland basis) which on a pro rata basis for lithia content (and adjusted to be inclusive of
freight costs) equates to a price of ~US$7,708/dmt (SC6.0, CIF China basis)."

Appeared on HC. Reckon not yet public.

CG are ALL house broker.