Member Info for GaiasKidney

Alk = high risk, so a punt. All? Life pension maker.

IMO.

GL with CUSN.

If I'm reading you correctly are you thinking of spodumene separation from pegmatite ore? Dry process far less costly than wet.

Eg see Kidmam resources asx pfs rns 22/10/18.

Alkemy plan to take part purified lithium sulphate/carbonate as feedstock (made from processing spodumene at mine) and process that to a high purity battery grade Li hydroxide. I don't know of a 'flotation' process step with that as it all involves soluable salts and selective crystallisation. I may be missing something.

Scoping study

https://www.alkemycapital.co.uk/news

ATB

Hmm.. five quid threshold on options ! Pointless if not thought to be achievable. Immediate vest.

40 perhaps today. 38+ just paid. Very strong rebound from oversold.

No sign of EV demand destruction, hydroxide holding at 70k+, spot spodumene 7k+, West economies not going down the pan, huge green incentives being legislated.

Get in!

Ummm.... No advice intended.

Anticipate in DFS: MRE cica 50/60mt allowing spodumene output 500kt/y, OPEX ~$300/t, ALL retain half of mine production.

At the 'PLL get the funding' conservative $1500 SC6 price (they have big bills before), that gives OP of $250m putting fair value for Atlantic at circa £1.5bn.

Whereas with a probable av $5k for spod out to 2030, priced on an earnings basis Atlantic becomes a £6bn co.

Allowing for some dilution that is giving £8/share.

Strong buy IMO. DYOR.

This is how you do it:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yyp-GydAHfM

and tasty too!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9LggoRgjQQ0

Reckon Atlantic making a splash ;-) at Diggers and Dealers. Significant peer comparison undervalueation with ALL, they will see that.

Back on track. This is the remainder of Biden's 'build back better', but still has >$300bn of climate and clean energy provisions and also:

"Another twist: Manchin said the final deal does not leave out new incentives for electric vehicles, which he’d resisted in what became a major sticking point in the negotiations. Manchin said the bill gives incentives to make new car batteries in America “and not only be able to assemble them, but be able to extract the minerals that we need, critical minerals, in North America.”

Schumer held a call Wednesday evening with committee chairs who have jurisdiction over climate as well as senators focused on the issue. The deal with Manchin includes a methane fee as well as a $4,000 tax credit for the purchase of used electric vehicles, according to two Democrats familiar with the matter"

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/27/manchin-schumer-senate-deal-energy-taxes-00048325

Lithium is recession proof.

Ha. ***** king auto correct......... Green Bushes

Latest > haplo > greenhouses quarterly

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23LITHIUM

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/energy-transition/072622-localized-refining-seen-as-potential-hurdle-in-eu-uk-battery-value-chain

Av of last 2 months around 1m. Something afoot?

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/988337/atlantic-lithium-fields-broad-high-grade-lithium-intercepts-at-ewoyaa-988337.html

Also to add a quick note on my thinking that: "..the upside revenue potential from this project is very high when comparing to the present [£]5m Mcap." A simplistic calc but valid - with a bit of guess work in:-

Spod SC6 @$7k/t plus processing at mine to raw Li sulphate @$500/t guess gives equiv imput cost per t of spod at $7.5k/t.

One tonne of hydroxide production takes ~6.5t of spod feedstock. Feedstock cost as sulphate to make 1t hydroxide cost ~$50k

Add other OPEX costs, guess $500/t of hydroxide. Total OPEX $55k/t.

Battery grade hydroxide sells at $70k/t. Basic profit/t $15k. Production target 96kt/y. Basic profit $1.4bn. Say co earnings then at $1bn. Fair valuation of TVL $10bn

If ALK retain say 10% as there part of TVL, that worth $1bn. Present ALK value $6m. 166x Mcap upside! Reduce by say 2/3rds dilution of ALK along the way still gives 50x + ALK sp upside.

All basllpark est and subject to large variability, but AISI not unreasonable.... And importantly has the possibility of much more rapid fast-tracking than do new mines. All the cos in the supply train will have to make a turn to be viable. If they get it right this one will deservedly get its share.

See how it goes.

Hi TDav.

I can see many reasons for the Alkemy Tees Valley lithium venture to fail, it is obviously a high risk project. However Moores concluding that the car builders when moving over to full EV will likely fail if they do not have at least a material level of control of the 'mines' I don't see as a negative for the TVL project, in fact the opposite.

By 'mines' I read Moores as meaning OEMs vertically integrating upwards in the lithium processing chain all the way to the mines by taking significant degrees of ownership at all levels to have enough control of supply of the products at all the stages. It would be of little use for a car maker to just own a mine who then sells their extract material to a processor who is then free to sell on their product to any competitor.

For Alkemy they are a very small start up presently. They state they have an ambitious fast track plan to production, we will see. They also say enact this they want to divest out chunks of TVL to anticipated partners for development cash. With the dominant nickel/lithium cathode battery design using hydroxide, battery grade hydroxide (LiOH.H2O) production is an unavoidable link in the mine-to-EV chain. Neither OEMs nor miners have this precision industrial chemistry as a skill set. To me if/when OEMs do act on Moores warning that can only make a project that is building that hydroxide production skill all the more vital to get involved with.

AISI Atherley and the people there conclude the same as the likes of Moores, Hooper and Klein et al and ALK/TVL will work to create a partnered ownership structure for TVL whilst wanting to retaine a minority stake.

This is where I see the most speculative value proposition for ALK holders. They may instead get taken out early, but it's well observed that the OEMs are being slow to act on the VI imperitive.

The MoU with Traxys is a start that increases the value, it transfers sourcing and buying power for TVL's feedstock to a much larger entity with extensive global reach. I expect next will be deal/s with potential customers. But for this to work a point has to rapidly come where build money goes on the table. This won't happen otherwise.

Presently ALL western OEMs almost completely rely on Chinese battery grade hydroxide and carbonate and also cathodes and anodes - something else Moores is pointing out. Is that sustainable?

ATB.

"According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (BMI), the flake graphite feedstock required to supply the world’s lithium-ion anode market is projected to reach 1.25 million tonnes per annum by 2025. The amount of mined graphite for all uses in 2021, was just 1 million tonnes."

https://www.mining.com/web/graphite-deficit-starting-this-year-as-demand-for-ev-battery-anode-ingredient-exceeds-supply/

Simon Moores on survival of OEMs during the vicious competition to come for those in the lithium downstream:

“If you don’t own the mines, if you don’t own physical supply - not a contract, not a piece of paper, not a loan, not an agreement - “physical supply” - owning the (whole) mine or half the mine whatever - then you’re not in the game"

On Hooper pressing Moores on pricing, the growing spodumene supply problem and suggesting spod contract will hold above 3k, Moores agrees and adds: "Over the next 3 years... you've got a structural under supply, not an over supply (GS's notion).."

- - - Allkem June q2 sales"average pricing of US$4992/dmt for spodumene at a grade of 5.4%"

Shanghai SMM on lithium regional supply predictions. Now:

"Based on the distribution of global lithium resource supply in 2021 surveyed by SMM, 40% of lithium resources come from Australia, 24% from China, 24% from Chile and 6% from Argentina."

and by 2026:

"the output in Australia will account for as much as 52% of the total, Canada 13%, Congo (DRC) 10%, and China 4%."

"China 4%" A China analyst saying China’s proportion falls to just one sixth of today. Over to you GS for comment....or bye, bye cred?

Buy, buy, buy lithium.....

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-07-21/-Entrepreneurs-enter-the-lithium-refining-business-It-s-a-license-to-print-money-Elon-Musk.html