RE: Hmmmm19 Oct 2025 15:13
Oldpro, Kestrel would obviously be informed, even if Max Royde wasn't on the board.
I agree it could be simple manipulation by bots in a low-volume, shaky macro environment, which has been mentioned. But the question remains, why are Kestrel not pushing for more information to be shared with the market if it can help to minimise such manipulation? It's in their interests to do so, as they could be getting a cash call if it further deteriorates. And that would be catastrophic for here, and for them.
I agree there's also the chance of some type of corporate action, but that's the point being made about why manipulation may be happening. And why Kestrel may be happy for it to occur. If there's a t/o, and Kestrel get to keep their holding in the company like the previous offer, then what difference does it make for them if one lands between 75-80p? The value of their holding is immediately reset. And they get to share ownership of the same company with a well-capitalised partner, which is in turnaround and paying down debt in a meaningful manner each half year. There was a bid at £1.25 less than 12 months ago. I think these guys could comfortably get away the same offer for 75-80p. That's the equivalent of the last offer when you account for a decrease in Adj EBITDA to $60-65m, but also a decrease of $20-25m in Net Debt to $80-85m. An equivalent offer, but with less risk if the turnaround of Search, and Comparison scaling, can be demonstrated. Costs have been meaningfully reduced. One-off costs have been absorbed. Debt will be down to circa $80m from $105m. It would be an absolute steal even at 80p.
This is why I don't understand why the company isn't providing more information when Kestrel should be screaming for it, providing they are not involved in some way in the reasoning behind any manipulation.
The share price should be in the 70's at a minimum if guidance is going to be met. The DIS division is worth 55-65p alone. And that's on fairly conservative multiples.
So I come back to manipulation definitely happening. But to what end? And to whose benefit?
Unless, of course, we're about to get a profit warning, which would give way to a whole other set of issues. Hopefully, an interview or statement from the company tomorrow, or early next week. As I've said, if Michael can jet around giving industry speeches, then he can do a lot more speaking to shareholders, who have suffered greatly this past year.