Member Info for G_G_G

BB, it's difficult to see how performance could be worse other than missing the lower end guidance of $60m Adj Ebitda. Johno gave a run-down of all the things happening in H2, with the scale up of Comparison and Search, alongside the new wins for DIS coming online and being revenue-generating.

So even if H2 was $30m v H1's $25m, it would still put us near enough to the lower-end guidance. But it would also put us on crazy multiples even at 70p.

We have very low volume. And it's constantly being drip-fed by low value sells in the thousands of pounds. It is obvious manipulation. But to what end? A low-ball take-over? This could be possible, but only if Kestrel is involved. And therein lies the risk for me. Kestrel can easily manipulate the share price toward 50p and then drop an offer of 75p. If they look after the other major holders that can walk away with a highly cash generative company in turnaround, with $90m debt being paid down at a rate of $25-30m per year before scale-up. In 2.5 years debt will be gone, and the company will be easily throwing off +$80m Adj EBITDA.

It's hard to see anything being bad in the H2 numbers given the interview just a month ago, so why else could it be happening?

Wozzer, this was all Stas's workings. I just cut and paste.

And yet you can't stop following me, Zero.

Agree Johno, but it's not hard to see how 'drill to fill' is just more 'wall of cash' talk. At Central we don't know what the decline curves will be like because nothing has been drilled there for years, which is exactly why the decline is so low on these wells now. But what would be a decent result on a Central well? We'd obviously have to trust that Calamity Baay will even hit gas, but let's say we got with 8-10mmcf and a 50% decline in the first year before it flattens over the following years. This of course is a very good scenario, but if we run it through you'll maybe reach 10kboepd by the end of next year with 4 wells drilled to target, and coming on at the beginning of each quarter to year-end plus continued declines for All Casc + Central x 4.

But as you've rightly pointed out, we'd be making about 3x more cash than we are now, which is f'all but we'd hopefully have no other hidden costs / f'ups to pay for. The compressor Baay said was the equivalent of one more well, but again, this relies on Baay's word. We'll probably have Baay tell us that a monkey stole a critical part before distracting everyone by claiming the next big oil find to rival Guyana is on our block.

In reality, drill to fill will take years if they can actually drill without issues. The hope is they can find gas in Central, and this allows the company to service the large debt load, and continue drilling until pricing contracts change in 2027, and they can revisit Casc. But how much does that rely on a team that has taken great assets, a 'transformative acquisition that fell in their laps, and destroyed £70m of our money in 12 months...? And it's likely 2028 before you see 40-50p again.

Remove the extra raise money and get us another 20mmcf with Casc 4 & 5, and we should re-visit 18-20p. But if he raises down here, then I'm sorry to say that you are going to need to find that extra million behind the sofa to get your average down to the high teens to see your money this side of next Christmas (providing they can execute at Central). Let's see what Calamity Baay delivers with Casc 5. On that, does anyone know if he's ghosting John27 at the moment?

Hardole, you followed me here like a bad stink, just like how you popped up at PLSR having never posted there. I couldn't care less if you post drivel here. And neither will the bots, unless you think all those sub £100 trades are PIs? Can't teach stupid, I suppose.

Highland, you are seriously quoting the RNS dates as part of the sequencing...? Did you even read the excerpt from the Ops update?

1. The Central acquisition update in April is not when Calamity Baay would have found out. It's not like Shell is run in the same way as Baay runs TXP, and they just sprung it on him then.

2. Casc 4 went sideways from February and got worse over the next 2 months. During this time Baay would have known the state of our cashflow issues. You made out that he had planned around Casc 4 & 5 funds flow for Central, when he would have known by March that nothing would be coming from either well by the time the deal needed to close, and that he had blown over $5m drilling half a hole with the wrong mud.

3. Baay would have had at least 2 months to arrange a placing with reputable brokers, and not d@dgy brothers for the majority of funds for our 'transformational' acquisition.

4. No mention of fundraise collapse for over a month.

5. No mention of loan covenants.

Point 5 is what crushed the share price. And it just happens to be the very thing he misled the market on, and where he withheld material information. It's also the thing that will save the share price if the final part of the raise is removed.

But there is NO EXCUSES for the incompetent pr@t. If he raises again, then he needs to be pushed from his lifestyle company job.

Courtesy of Stas the other day...

From the Guident S-1/A we now have an actual deal structure rather than the previous placeholder, and this is my take:

Offer size: 1,704,545 new shares being sold to the public

Fully diluted shares post-offering: ~4.9 m (or 5.16 m including the 255,682-share greenshoe)

Price range: $7.80 – $9.80 (mid-point $8.80)

Gross proceeds: about $15.0 m, or $17.25 m including the full greenshoe

Implied market cap: ≈ $43 – 45 m at the mid-point

Underwriters: Prime Number Capital (lead) and Dominari Securities, both with standard 5 % warrants at 120 % of the IPO price

Use of proceeds: rollout of the Remote Monitor & Control Centre (RMCC), launch of the robot/AV business, R&D, sales & marketing, and working capital

Conversions at IPO: includes a $2.5 m parent note converting into 284,091 shares at $8.80, plus preferred and senior notes – that’s how the total share count gets to the 4.9 m figure

So yes, the headline fund-raise looks smaller than many, including myself, had expected (no $100 m ticket the analysts discussed, at least not yet). But that $17 m number is just the capital being raised, not the valuation. The implied value of roughly $43 – 45 m is the base on which Guident will trade publicly.

Once listed, the market will decide where it goes from there. Many tech IPOs start small to minimise dilution and fees, then re-rate sharply as liquidity and analyst coverage build. A clean Nasdaq listing with the right partnerships and execution can easily justify a $100 m+ valuation down the line.

For TEK, this remains highly significant. Even at a $43 m cap, Tek’s ~70 % holding (say it settles nearer 50 % post-IPO) would still be worth around $21 – 30 m, which is roughly equal to or greater than Tek’s entire current market cap before even counting Microsalt, GenIP, Lucyd, etc.

It’s fair to say some might see the initial deal size as a touch underwhelming after all the $100 m speculation, so we may get a short-term wobble as the market digests it, but looking at the price today and my previous tech analysis, I doubt it, however personally, I’d welcome that – would love to load more if it drifts – because the real catalyst will be once Guident actually prices and starts trading.

Highland - see RNS statement.

· Capital Investments: Invested $6.67 million during the quarter, primarily for the Cascadura-4 development well. Drilling operations were suspended in February for rig repairs, briefly resumed in March, and halted again due to wellbore instability. Activities are expected to resume by the end of May with the arrival of specialized equipment.

So no problems with sequencing. He knew there were issues and massive cost overruns, and that no money would be coming from Casc 4, let alone 5. A ret@rd would have been able to work out that a) we don't have enough cash runway for Central, or to finish Casc 4, let alone 5, b) the bank will not provide the full funding, c) timings of payments from Shell.

To say that Shell would have sprung the decomm costs on him last minute is unbelievable. He would have known the full amount to be paid and the bank's position, well before an utterly diabolical capital raise.

There's literally no scenario where he hasn't made an absolute mess of the loan and raise. And there's no excuse for delaying notifying the market for over a month that the bucket shop raise fell over, and that the funding (plus more) was attached to the loan terms. He even side-stepped a direct question on an Investor Meet and then doubled down to say the bank didn't ask for it. He deliberately withheld and misdirected the market. And now we are stuck with another 20% hanging over our heads. Why hasn't he gotten our 'trusted banking partner' to remove the terms? This one thing will add 50% to our sp in a few days. And yet he hasn't gotten it removed. Why? Are our finances that f@cked?

Johno, good to know. So a reasonable result for Casc 4 + 5 would be 20mmcf. Given we won't get a full 3 months of production, it would mean Q4 comes in around 7kboepd.

So let's run this through. Central 1 starts flowing in mid January. Given decline rates this will only keep the level of production for Q1 relatively stable at 7-8kboepd. Granted, it will provide a greater return. But then we're going to 'drill to fill'. How exactly will that work if the best these guys are capable of drilling and completing is 4 wells in a year? Maybe 5 in a good year. But it all relies on no more rookie errors. By the time the drill rig moves to Central 2, it won't be hooked up and flowing until Q2. Same for Central 3 and so on.

So by the end of 2026 with another 4 wells you're still not averaging more than 10kboepd production for the year after decline rates are factored. That is how much of our processing capacity...? 'Drill to fill' is about as accurate as Calamity Baay's 'wall of cash'. They'd need 2 x drills completing +10 wells per year, without issues and delays, just to get above 15kboepd average production in 2027 post decline.

If another raise happens at 12p we won't see +20p until 2027 with pricing contract changes. And the irony of it all was we were p!ssed about the raise he said wasn't needed at 20.5p.

Wozzer, sorry I forgot to mention that I knew about the $17m, but meant to say it values Guident (in total) at circa $45-50m. Is this correct, or do I have that all wrong?

The IPO timeline is the major issue here. Given the last amendment was on the 06th October, it seems reasonable that the IPO will land early to mid-November (with no other amendments).

Last question, has the roadshow now finished?

Bots playing with the sp atm. They seem to like taking us to 57p before bouncing 10-15% then rinse / repeat.

Also, if anyone is going to respond to Hardole (Zero) then don't bother. He has been following me around boards along with SuperSport due to my posting on TXP's shady CEO.

Thanks Wozzer, so we could be waiting another month, providing there are no more amendments. I read the IPO valuation is being pitched at $45-50m. Do we know anything about how the roadshow has fared? Also, the investment banks managing the IPO - does anyone know much about them and their recent IPO track record?

So how much are you up here Smasher?

Johno, I was talking Gross initially.

Highland, in what universe would we have been able to fund Central and Casc 4 & 5? We already knew Casc 4 was a disaster. And he already would have known Shell and the Bank's position, or at the very least, he should have known over a period of 6 months, or I have no idea what he was doing. And to then do a last-minute raise with a bucket-shop, followed by not telling us for a month after it had fallen over, followed by a left-field bank covenant that he had misdirected us on. It's all these things that have left us in the 11's (all time lows with the exception of a few months just after we listed), and a further 20% raise hanging over our heads. Making excuses for the inexcusable is how he still takes an $800k per year package. If this happened in another age, he'd be missing his tongue.

Hardole, the only thing that's always wrong here is what comes out of Calamity Baay's mouth.

Thanks Wozzer. Can you confirm when documentation and filings were finalised? I thought this was a few weeks ago...?

Stas, I've followed you somewhere now. Taken 250k at 10.95p. Those round buys were mine yesterday. Gutted as I was looking to enter when the sp was 7-8p just a few weeks ago.

Anyone have a realistic date range for the Guident listing based on prior / established timings? With a $50m Mcap this should be nailed on for 25-50% rise if the discount to NAV remains broadly the same. One has to hope Guident's value jumps on listing to get above this range.

I'm with Stas on why the raise was done. Highly likely to let an existing shareholder close to the CEO, who could also be under-water, to increase their position at no cost to shareholders. I imagine the extra cash in the kitty provides a welcome buffer as well. This happens more than you can imagine.

Given the post was removed, I'll ask you again SM, how you come to such a broad range of figures if you're so well researched? And more to the point, how do you possibly get to 5600boepd for Q3? The production figures will be 5100-5200boepd. The question then comes down to commodity prices, and of course, what commercial surprises we get from Calamity Baay on FF from Ops, and Net Income. These last ones are a complete lottery pick, which should never be the case. But then again, we have a CEO who thought we could fund Central from internal cashflow, when in reality we didn't even have enough money to finish Casc 4 & 5, and that was after we had raised a reasonable amount at 20.5p with some poor investors who got sucker punched by Baay.

Bottom line, your top-line numbers are way out. Work off 5100-5200boepd. From there, the range is more likely to be $12-13m Sales Value. And everything else is guesswork, thanks to whatever hidden costs we have incurred in Q3. Hardly setting the world alight after such a dire Q2.

Of course, Q4 will be better, providing they haven't wrecked Casc 5 somehow. As for Casc 5 production, I was under the impression it should come online at a similar rate to prior Casc wells and not 15-20mmcf mentioned here, and that Central wells are projected to be at this rate. I'm happy to be corrected on these numbers if there is a reliable source (not that anything from Baay's mouth is reliable).

Crl, don;t feel too good for me. The dressed-up car salesman running this company has cost me over twice that amount, when a semi-competent CEO would have closed Central in Q1, with a smaller number of shares printed at a higher price, and have 2 x wells already hooked up by now. So my real loss from his monumental ineptitude is closer to £200k if you consider the sp should be in the mid 20's at a minimum. The rampers here back then were saying 35-40p. This was meant to be a 'safe bet' for all of us.

Still a seller in the 11's. We had 4.5m shares change hands on Friday and Monday, and yet the sp retreated back to 12p. I think John27 needs to have a word with Calamity Baay on any potential raise. Because if this trading pattern is down to him printing confetti at 12p then god help us all.

Anyone know when Calamity Baay said Casc 5 results would be shared? Or does he not even give dates any more...?

Zero, if we get to those numbers it would be a good result given the horrendous circumstances we find ourselves in, thanks to Calamity Baay. Not sure if he has ever surprised me to the upside. First for everything I suppose.

SM, your numbers, given you were asking for them?

I've got a similar horrible feeling crl. F@cking hope not, as it will be crippling to the sp.

SS, you're losing it pal. Following me around boards, spewing bile. You need to point it in the direction of the person who has f@cked your wealth. It's not me. I've just been pointing out how our $800k per annum freeloading charlatan CEO has destroyed £70m of shareholder money in the past 12 months. Your money, and mine, are wrapped up in that very big number. But good old Calamity Baay still gets paid. Point it in that direction. And if he raises again at 12p, just remember that it has happened due to his monumental incompetence and do something about it. Casc 4 is worth about 10-15% of the share price destruction. Everything else is Baay being useless at the Corporate level.

Let's see what pops up in the coming days, Johno.

SM, what are your numbers for Sales and Funds Flow from Ops?

ah ffs, i can't believe plsr has jumped that much. i sold my shares on the tsx for 67c average and a £45k profit. i got the company right, and my exit all wrong. could have gotten another £80k profit had i sat on them. value is bonkers for the stage it is at. suppose that's what happens when you get the likes of zero turning up.

sm my back of f@g packet will have q3 sales at $7.5m (oil and liquids) plus $5m gas = $12.5m (13% increase on q2, which was ****e). funds flow from ops i have no idea, and doubt anyone has called it right in recent times, but would hope for something in the order of $3m. feel free to share your thoughts. but it won't change the fact that the sp won't be going above 15p with the raise still hanging around our necks. the raise being removed, and yes, we'll not only jump above 15p but i think we could even get back to 17-18p. and i sincerely hope this will happen as every 1p = £15k to my pf.

johno, there's a b/g seller and i'm quite sure we'll see a rather large trade pop up in the next few days. i can buy 200k lumps at 12.45p. the sp is being pinned to 12p. some of you lot tried to cause a mini breakout the other day, and look what happened - it got pulled back to the same level with some big sells popping up. i'm not going to be surprised at all if we get news of the raise happening at this level. and if it does, i hope the deaf, dumb and blind amongst you finally wake the f@ck up to reason being the great calamity baay and that his head should roll.