RE: API28 Jul 2020 23:49
Nick
I think the consenus is on the fact that partial shut downs will affect demand just as OPEC+ increase, Asia is particularly draconian on lock downs, the west no so much, but the markets are rattled with the Spain quarantine restrictions and the resurgence on covids 2nd wave, they expected it alot later in the year, the fact that demand is lagging, storage is still quite full, floating storage still st sea. Until demand outstrips supply prices will remain subdued, WTI under pressure daily, as DBNO has his running commentary, while some doesnt think it applies, yes it applies big time, did the Saudis n the Russians play a blinder by crashing the market, killing WTI shale and grabbing market share ? I would say mid to long term absolutely, indeed some Russian producers had been lobbying Putin for exactly this only last year, OPEC do not want WTI shale to come back online yet, a slow steady rise in POO should be expected from here, maybe a wobble or 2 until October but after that should be perfect to go long, vaccine should be done amd available by then for the needy, mass vacations will start from NY - Easter for the western world, returning us to normality from then on, so still not back to full strength until 2022, sounds a long time but this looks like the reality to me imo