Member Info for FunInvestor

Big releases here and there has not and will not drive the price up.
The industry needs MORE MOVIES on a regular basis.
Look at any month you wish for this last one year period.
We dont have half the number of releases we previously would have had.
That's why (largely speaking) we have had many months at about half revenues we (the industry) wants. A few a bit better maybe 65 - 70% area and so far ONE pretty good month in December of last year (Spiderman doing incredible numbers).

Now let's have say 3 months of c. $800m - $1bn in North American box office with near double current monthly releases and I then believe we could have some price movements (though appeal still makes it hard for Cineworld) We could see other operators in sector show SP growth to let is see what to expect if we get positive appeal out the way.

* No local cinema for me tomorrow as it's a trip to bigger one for the full 4DX experience for Top Gun.
Actually quite excited.

https://www.indiewire.com/2022/05/downton-abbey-a-new-era-box-office-1234727243/

https://variety.com/2022/biz/asia/north-america-china-global-box-office-recovery-1235275084/

That's good news LPD.
Business needs to embrace these "media" platforms.

Thanks Hexam, more excellent posts.

https://theweek.com/briefing/1013674/netflix-theaters-briefing

Yet, you know more than anyone else including Cineworld (who set the base case parameters).

Box office IS the best base any of us has to build from.

May would "normally" be $1bn(+)
There is no way it's going to end there or even at/near THE COMPANY'S base case.

You have a major issue with me, that's fine.
What's your problem with the company you are invested in (apparently).?

Doesn't matter how often you make feeble attempts to dictate and bully what me or anyone else says here LPD the share price tells the story (you keep missing that obvious error in your analysis).
Have a good one :-)

Yes, those movies that do release are starting more and more to "do ok".
Unfortunately still not enough of them and few doing far beyond expectations.

Combined this results in yet another sub par month.
We are now a year in from re-starting business and the North American market in particular is a long way off pre COVID level's (levels the company will want to be at to enable it to turn finances around).

US market for industry really we want to be seeing minimum $200m/week (not just the odd week) week in week out.

Sileng,
I respectfully disagree. "IF" it was to lead to us hitting and surpassing base case from next month onwards then I feel it would positively impact SP.

With world events and all Cine own trpubles e.g. court appeal, debt, not having the box office then it is currently hard/impossible to see strong SP.

However, much starts to unlock if we start seeing in particular US market show regular strong box office.

Hopefully from next weekend we can finally see some pick up in US box office for a few weeks and hopefully beyond.
May like previous month's now looks to suffer from lack of depth of releases.
We can't afford weeks like this between individual big releases.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-lightyear/

I fully expect Cineworld to know, I don't particularly find it unusual for people of a certain standing in society to mix either.

In the small chance it's not known or declared of required then certainly no harm done with all work HNS has put into this.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/cinemas-invest-in-diversification-as-means-of-economic-recovery/

Stop just STOP telling lies to yourself.

You bought Cine at £1+ and only sold at c. 37p having in your own world's lost c. 70%!!!

You then bought with your remaining money of £30k(ish) xrp at 74p which is 40% down since.

We all (most anyway) as well aware Cine is not without risk.
You being an absolute pathological liar to yourself won't change ANYTHING.

Look back, pretty certain you won't see me advising people to do anything with THEIR money.
I have been one always said risks and so can and will move both ways.
Don't try re-write history.
You have turned £100k approx into £18k approx.

Mooky has clearly stated more than once that getting the existing business up and running to "normal" levels allowing to then "tidy up/reduce" the debt is priority.

Therefore I would be somewhat surprised to say least if we saw expansion (of scale) in short term.
I do believe the company will continue to add strong strategic locations, that is single sites rather than hundreds or thousands from another business. They will also likely continue to monitor and where possible remove poor sites.

I also don't see him particularly wanting to sell off part(s) of the business as it has only just got to this size really (see Regal and Cineworld purchases). He and company are clearly driven to be one of if not THE big player in the field.

A deal too good to turn down obviously can always change all that, but currently I feel the likelihood is fairly low on that front all considered.

So for me it is clear Cineplex, get at/near/beyond those base line targets and see the existing business start generating enough to put it in place to make further improvements e.g. stronger balance sheet /cash position to improve recent expensive debt for cheaper debt as a minimum, then easier to reduce total debt burden which in turn from reduced interest coats enables further reductions and/or funds to upgrade current estates, make moves to buy other brands, see better SP to raise far greater sums to do whatever the hell they like.

Buys Cine at £1+ , sells at c. 37p to buy xrp at 74p, holding it currently at 43p.

Yes we have missed your clear expertise.

https://movieweb.com/jurassic-world-dominion-opening-weekend-could-beat-doctor-strange-2/

Mountainous, Yes my belief is various areas of uncertainty in the business, not least Cineplex appeal. What I was ask though was for those here that believe eve there is no result that has Cineworld lose essentially then why is SP here and why are institutional buyers not filling up like fat kid in sweetie shop?
It doesn't add up if that were indeed the case. Let's nobody here think they know far better than teams of experts in finance/investing/legal matters

Mountainous , As one of the most regular cinema visitors of this board I agree with you and your findings that UK is still performing pretty well.
I also have chats with the staff from time to time though not asked about pay per se..

Think the key as you note towards end however is we are not in the USA and that is where we still need significant improvements.

The company have recorded that for is and we see enough stats to know that to still be the case.

Recovery is longer than some hoped/expected in that territory but we do get little shoots of hope it can and will still come.
Question is how well Cineworld can negotiate until that point with their finances as we know they are.

Let's hope our belief in board is well placed.

One of my problems with the assertion that with regards the Cineplex dispute and appeal we essentially can't lose comes back to then why is share price at c. 10% of pre COVID level's.
If everyone is confident box office has returned/is returning strongly. We are or will soon be coming it in then why are some of Cine board, Jangho etal not piling in at these prices?

We have had nothing of note buying pr shorting really for months and months.

For me there is still uncertainty on various levels and we surely must have "something to lose" in this court case.

I am not qualified in the field of this case and as I understand it neither is anyone else on this chat board.

That aside I do value and appreciate the efforts of research HNS and some others go into on this and other Cineworld related matters.