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Hexam, the company has also indicated some of what may result in them not achieving base case scenario.
They included a lower case scenario and means things such as requiring to seek debt waivers.
They may well be confident of getting these as they have done such while closed previously.

Correct Hexam, I am not doing as some suggest.
I AM confirming EXACTLY what the company has stated and they will know far better than any of is regards other revenue streams and cost savings when THEY THE COMPANY prepared their base case scenario for ADMISSIONS.

IF US domestic ends north of $8bn then like most I will be delighted (assuming appeal/debts hasn't significantly impacted "us" before then).
Enjoy your weekend when it comes all :-)

UK doing well, concessions per person (still as per company significantly down overall as YES we have fewer customers currently to do that higher spending)up etc .
The company knows all that and made their findings based on this.

Just don't stick your neck out while flying Robin.
Hope you get this prediction right, be good to finish week above where we started it.

https://deadline.com/2022/04/babylon-dungeons-and-dragons-paramount-brian-robbins-cinemacon-1235012085/

The Group's base case scenario assumes a continued recovery to pre-pandemic levels of admissions, with cinemas across all territories remaining open. In the US, admissions are forecast to return to levels representing 85% of comparable periods in 2019 during 2022, with corresponding levels for the UK and ROW at 90% and 95% respectively. Admissions are then forecast to remain on average 5% below 2019 levels throughout 2023 and to recover to 2019 levels in 2024. In addition to cinema performance, the Group's cash flows and liquidity are sensitive to the timing and level of rent payments. The Group has been successful in agreeing further waiver and deferral of significant rent payable on a number of lease agreements with the support of landlords. Rent payments have been modelled in line with actual modifications and the expectations of achievable deferrals over the coming 15-month period based on on-going discussions with the landlords.

As I previously stated the above is direct from the company.
Other regions are at higher levels in their base case scenario.
The scenario is based on ADMISSIONS, NO OTHER REVENUE STREAMS. As I assume they are in a better position than any here they will have taken account of these in coming to their percentages for ADMISSIONS in each region.

For US it is 85% of ADMISSIONS.

Base Case Scenario

The Group's base case scenario assumes a continued recovery to pre-pandemic levels of admissions, with cinemas across all territories remaining open. In the US, admissions are forecast to return to levels representing 85% of comparable periods in 2019 during 2022...

That is direct from company RNS.

Now so far in US for whole market which Cineworld seems to be roughly (give or take odd percentage point) following is as follows:

January $389,522,163 47.9%
February $365,520,847 58.5%
March $578,314,745 60.1%
April to date basis $506,821,117 59.5%

To achieve 85% of corresponding period as company base case noted above we will be looking at following US box office $ required.

May $916,017,110
June $976,690,846
July $1,094,966,622

*No opinion attached to this post, just the raw numbers per company and box office mojo*

Hot, I am assuming the company took those savings into consideration when it did it's modelling.
They noted the approximate savings in results presentation.
Don't want to say a specific figure, but from memory it was a range c. $50 - $80m per annum maybe.

The company built a base case on US ADMISSIONS!! (not plus plus plus any other revenue streams) that modelling was on US achieving 85% on equivalent 2019 periods.

RS, 18 weeks is 34.5% of a full year, so at 40% it isnt exactly a massive sway from an annualised average.

Yes these next week's are generally stronger so we need EVEN stronger period in these coming weeks to compare to previous years.

I do expect we will see stronger revenues in this period, but it's what we should expect and it's still what we need.
We can all play with days, weeks or months. Annually it's clear the previous "norm" was $11bn+.

I liked the part where they speak of 10 years planned and bullish about it for Marvel stuff :-)

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/disney-debuts-first-look-david-o-russell-movie-lightyear-doctor-strange-cinemacon-1235131216/

https://deadline.com/2022/04/doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness-advance-ticket-sales-extended-footage-cinemacon-1235010956/

Cool promo method.
https://screenrant.com/top-gun-2-maverick-pilot-helmet-display-images/

https://deadline.com/2022/04/adam-aron-oscars-amc-entertainment-cinemacon-1235010745/

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/warner-bros-cinemacon-presentation-wonka-the-flash-elvis-footage-1235131878/

RS, I fully understand what you are saying and these factors indeed come into it.
I was keeping it simplistic and at same time allowing some scope for the other streams performing better pro rata just now.

Now if Box office was only a few percentage points short of business target then my earlier post would indeed be off mark.
However it was maybe 20 - 25% light in Q1 and many other months.
Current month even is way short.
Next 3 months look like they have potential, but then they need to.
Anyone care to look at current slate for August - November it is very light.

On the share price movements of last few days indeed it is a wide market movement, HOWEVER again the fact that the business/share price is at a weak point due to Cine specific factors covered many times then the drop is even more than much of/most of the wider market.

Hoping we now see a strong run starting with Dr Strange and it snowballs from there.

Happy hump day all :-)

StanleyPro, Box Office Mojo for entire US market.

Mountainous, you are correct I do not agree having looked over the years and releases several times.
Tegop, Correct nobody expected/expects 100% recovery overnight.
However we have been re opened c. 1 year now and a longer recovery is fine for a company with little or no debt, we are NOT that company.
The company itself has given a "base case" and other options in a few of it's reports and we are currently short of that.

Yes yes all I realise Jan and Feb had COVID issues in US and yes film slate stronger the next c 3 months and final month/2 of this year.
We do still need more movies and we need most of these big ones to perform to or above expectations as things stand.
That doesn't leave a lot of scope for any failures.

I am still a holder and appeal aside I hope/believe we can recover.
It is however still an uphill struggle.

Year/Annual/First 4 months

2019/$11.3bn/$3.4bn
2018/$11.9bn/$3.9bn
2017/$11.1bn/$3.7bn
2016/$11.4bn/$3.6bn
2015/$11.1bn//$3.3bn

Less than a week to go and we sit at $1.8bn for 2022.

Mountainous, I will repeat the point from time to time when people miss represent where we are.

If you look at history of cinema you will see some clear patterns.
For example look at August September for current year releases almost NOTHING that's not abnormal.
There is December historically strong.
May - July mostly strong.

Last 5 years have shown c. $11.3bn average. ALL years over $11bn, so my point is valid and reasonable.

I did NOT for example paint Q2 as going to be well down on 2019 Q2 as that was strongest quarter of year.
I have AVERAGED out remainder of year, that's as fair as possibly can be done.

Show me the list of lower movies for remainder of year. We don't (as yet have any details on that, and that was also my point).
Look for yourself as you either don't believe me or dont like hearing it at all.
Box office mojo will show you that basically EVERY single month we have been ridiculously short on depth of movies

I don't like this anymore than you or others here, HOWEVER it is our current reality of the recovery so far.

Deltalo, have you missed the last several months where it's clear we are nowhere near precovid box office levels of the discussion multiple times that while we have a good line up of the big movies (roughly on par with pre COVID, maybe even a little better) we fall WAY short on all the other movies we normally would have to generate the remaining income .

We are almost 1/3 through the year now and at $1.8bn and change US market.

Pre COVID 5 year average is c. $11.3bn annual.

We now need c. $900m + each and every one of next 8 months to even get to 80 - 85% of annual figure by end year .
Since opening in a year we have hit that ONCE (Spidey month), we have been struggling to get over $600m/month on any "good" month.

So, while I hope we get to or near company base case as year progresses, let's not kid ourselves just yet. There is still a real struggle and it's reflected in the SP.

Enjoy travels. What we know from Marvel now is if it's good it WILL gross BIG $$