Member Info for Fukurokuju79

Been out all day. Bit amazed to see a placing but it's only small and I'd assume it's better terms than they would have got from the CLN.

While I can't deny it's a blow, as the company must have an idea of the burn rate, I'm happy it shows they won't use the CLN financing arbitrarily.

I'm sure it's been an I told you fest here today. I'll look later, if I can be bothered.

Atb roll on debt financing!!

Probably not ATM legal, which is also a factor in my assumption Ben T is referencing majors.
Only institutional investors IMO would be those interested and specialised in participating in placements with juniors i.e. those who churn their capital. However KAV have a good cash position ATM, and I don't think they'd ask for fire assays or that Ben would be engaged with them at the moment.

Atb

Ella10 >>Is it likely that the 'other firm that would want to see fire assays' is an institutional investor?<<

No not IMO. I think it's more likely a major, over an institutional investor. My reasoning is that I believe Ben T has mentioned interest from majors, and fire assays seems more aligned to a sector based partner.

I'd hang my hat on a major(s) within the sector like AA personally.

Atb

Yep great RNS giving a nice summary.
All the critical boxes ticked if they can deliver as planned..

Atb

Don't we also need to factor in the timescales on newsflow, which is the lifeblood of AIM stocks?

KAV are main market legal.

Regarding news I think as has been said Ben T may now release all assays. Apart from that they will still release progress sure plus anything on the KCB areas too.

Patience is key IMO. Besides I don't think news will dry up, it's just the assays may be combined is all.

Atb

Well today has awoken the board anyway...

Atb

Watches it and I'm still where I was this morning.

In terms of what copper, nickel, PGEs etc that may be beneath the ground, this RNS isn't positive or negative, it's simply progress forward.
The important factors from today are the confirmations of a successful first drill and retrieval of core all the way down. Great achievement!

The fact that BT won't waste money means he clearly has seen sufficient support of the hypothesis to be encouraged to expand the drill programme that was announced today.

Also sounds very much like others are still taking an interest in what is happening here.

I'm not expecting any definitive news until assay results. Until then it remains simply progress.
If they drill target B and hit something mega then we may hear before.
Obviously we'll get other news like EM etc and maybe more around KCB.
However in terms of my personal KSZ proof of concept expectations I'd suggest it's going to take a while to get the drills cores, cut cores and then assays. Sounds like several weeks plus for each stage of each drill so my expectations are it will take a fair while (6 month plus) IMO.

Im more than happy to wait and see what else comes out on other projects. I'm happy to hold here with patience.

Atb

I'll have a look thanks.

I still believe this drop will be limited once interview/s are done and digested.

Yes I think it's Ben's way. Cautious until the assays etc are completed.
I'm not worried at all about no xrf as per my earlier post and Keith's better one with extracts from the interview.

It's my growing opinion that the fact they are drilling another hole is more positive than negative I.e. but won't know until assays.
I'm not sure they would spend the extra if they hadn't seen anything encouraging, however equally I'm not sure they would spend lots more if they felt they'd hit the mother load already.
In short they must have some positive indicators sufficient to decide to drill more at cost, and the drillers must still think it's worth it.

I can understand why the market has dropped with a little interpretational uncertainly but I think the interview will shine the spotlight on that ambiguity.

Even if they didn't hit much its the first of a series of holes. The KSZ is still very much early and in play. With the hole with almost triple the Siemens to come later, which I'm most excited by. Then they still have the KCB.

I qnticipate any dip will be bought into. Then more so after interview. I'm protected a little by a low buy in albeit I have a fairly sizeable position.

Will take time here. Will wait for the interview now and see from there.

Atb

Re releasing of RNS - The below stockbox interview does not mention trleasing xrf.
I recall BenT saying he wasn't sure if he would announce XRF as the results can be less accurate and /or misleading. However I'd have too find the original interview as there are differences of memory recall from those in the forum on this.

Ella - re EM, specifically..

>>Does anyone know if down hole EM can give immediate indications for the geologists or does full analysis need to be performed to get any indication?<<

See below stockbox interview. Mentioned in there and suggests results of EM would be earlier and can be processed quite quickly. IF they don't encounter any issues! So there is an operational risk in success, but if they complete then the results require some data processing and modelling etc but shouldn't take that long it seems.

Here is link to tweet from around 25th July. You'll have to remove the extra full stops between the t and w within tw!tter..

https://t.w.itter.com/StockBoxMedia/status/1419221006561030150?s=20

I'm not sure I fully agree that Ben has particularly hyped KAV.
BenT has certainly been enthusiastic and excited about the project but not sure id define it as 'hype'. He has always said it's a gamble (his words), has never to my knowledge raised false expectations.

In fact it's knowing that Ben doesn't like to hype before being certain that makes me believe some of the terminology in the RNS is muted and is played down a bit until they get validation.
This is why I am unsure on if the RNS is a positive or not.

Ben will give more away in interviews.

It's very early for the KSZ being first drill, they also have the very encouraging KCB asset(s) so as I say I not selling. However, I want to be more excited from today's RNS than I am is all. It's an inconclusive RNS to me ATM.

Atb

I can see both sides of the different interpretations.
I'm not sure where I sit yet in my interpretation of the RNS today.
I think the interviews will be key though, to get a greater feel from Ben T on today's RNS.
I'm not selling a bean though.

Atb

Yep seems that way. Hopefully any subsequent uncertainty and challenges by the outgoing big dogs are short lived and swift.

Atb

Yeah. Slight difference in interpretation I think.

However I think I can now see what you mean. I'm saying he would always exercise those warrants given the expiry date is next Tuesday, and the strike price if over half lower than the recent close.

However, having read the RanS again I have reinterpreted it and I can see what you mean about the irrevocable undertaking. Yes does certainly imply a potential bit of news for PoW that may relate to the KCB JV with KAV.

Have to wait and see I guess. Either way certainly anticipating KAV news flow this week.

Atb all

The irrevocable clause for the warrants I believe was in place from the date they were issued (maybe 2019?).
It was set to a future date (in this case 18th August) as a fail safe in case PJ was deemed to have inside information (given the best number of projects they have).
I think therefore the exercising of warrants and the irrevocable clause is a red herring. It was a case of exercise it before 18th August or lose it. Given they are at 1p and share price is over double that it was a no brainer to execute for Paul J.

That said, I do believe the fact they are both on the bill may signpost good news.
Certainly KAV are due something on the KSZ this week but I know PJ doesn't sit still and will be chomping at the bit to get the KCB moving if he can.

Defo be an interesting week and hopefully a couple bits of news drops over the week.

Atb

Hopefully so Fulmar.

Thanks Fulmar. I think this election is, probably, one of the critical influencers here. Additionally if I were AA or any of the other majors I wouldvwant to see the election results before finalising any deal. Plus (on the assumption any deal will need some form of government approval?) even if a deal had been done, it's would be stuck in uncertainty, red tape and waiting for this election anyway.

Anyway here is a little more reading about the election worth sharing.... I've also pulled out a passage from it but sharing the whole article to get full context and broader info.

https://www.ft.com/content/738e6c4e-3e0d-4d2a-836d-dc18fb290409

'Opposition leader Hichilema, a wealthy businessman, has pledged to prioritise a debt restructuring and to bring foreign investment back to the mines, albeit on terms that he says would favour Zambians'

Hopefully HH wins.

Atb everyone

Canetoad

At least your points are well researched and a good argued case. Touche for that, as many don't quantify their statements who have a less optimistic outlook.

A few thoughts from me...

>>IF the new debt comes off without any problems <<

This has been debated and while it's not guaranteed it was announced as they had entered into a binding term sheet for the secured loan (debt). So bar something material being identified in due diligence etc the term binding gives me more comfort on its surety (albeit not without risk of not completing).

>>IF the company starts to turn around <<

Again, valid point. While not assured I am comfortable the risk of failure is materially reduced as they are a turnaound specialist team. I can see a plan of action, realism and a producing business with the price of copper likely to rise significantly.
Just my view.

<>

This is an incredibly low risk IMO. Electrification will need/rely on it. Underinvestment, insufficient supply, huge demand. I can only really see the price rising and potentially significantly. Still possible, but highly unlikely imv.

>>IF there are no further cave-ins<<

There may be. It's likely there will be I guess, at some stage. However this again is significantly mitigated as they are opening up 6/7 stopes. Therefore the operational/company impact of such an event would be significantly reduced.

>>But if you want to double or triple your money quickly, you'll be better off at Ladbrokes.<<

No.
..........

If it is the warrants being sold, and if they do sell the lot, I'd agree we are likely to drop a little more. Unless hot news is released to drive up the share demand side.
I won't be selling though as I think the mid to longer outlook is still a great risk / reward especially at this price.

While I'm happy with my holding, if in the short term the price drops more e.g. by warrants I will add more at 18p.

Atb

Star 786.
Not sure I follow tbh.
Phoenix are well funded as it stands (others can add more details here I'm sure).
They are, to my knowledge, very vocal about avoiding dilution.
I don't see them needing to issue more shares for liquidity. MMs will need to make a market. If demand due to ADRs is high, they will need to encourage share supply (sellers) by raising the price of the stock. That's exactly what we want.
If liquidity ends up being a problem then have to wait and see.
If it does become an issue (not sure it will) I dont think they need to raise capital via a placing to create liquidity and fund any capex down the line.
They can do a stock split and debt financing, JV, sell, etc etc

Atb

The (retired Geophysicist) was suppose to include a ? to call out it wasn't a statement but a vague memory I recall you saying before SeizNav..?

Atb