Member Info for Fukurokuju79

@Ella as we are reposting old stuff I'll repost my original reply to you...
I see you've added a number 7 about NvS comms but I think my last point about discussions and NDAs covers that.
__________
Ella,

FWIW my take from my own research. Used the respective numbers as per your post..

1. Rackler as taking the CASA liability. Audit currently being completed, ahead of Rackler raising capital.
2. Only court cases is one by MM for a bogus debt and a case pending to get rid of him (MM) leasing ARCMs plant. Both expected to be easily won.
3. ARCM has already confirmed the licence changes were ahead of potential commercial transactions and are in good standing. The changes are academic and if we had lost any licences this would have been reported.
4. Obvs thats speculation - Personally disagree with the intent around the surrender of share options. This was to reduce dilution and came with confirmation no further will be issued.
5. I don't see the need to RNS every action they make.
6. Who knows. Will see unless one of the various ndas with majors ends well in interim.

Anyway all we can do is invest or sell based on our opinions. Time will tell but we have a deep drill campaign in progress and multiple NDA discussions with several majors.

Atb

Yes with you there Cornish.
Dalesman the press section is really a repository of the companies released RNS' so only go there if RNS'd.
They may include it as part of a broader operational update RNS or when they hit the target steady state as Cornish says but otherwise I'm personally anticipating it's bau and they won't RNS stope development standalone.

Atb

Agreed. For me it's a wait before dipping toe in or buy one tranche now incase need, but hold back several tranches to add if price dips over winter.
No major rush it's not going anywhere and if they succeed any price here, lower or even higher won't matter.
I'm not a cautious investor but I'd rather wait as entry is everything and while it's much lower than the high 20ps I think a better entry is possible here.
In short, if I held already I wouldn't sell at this price but equally I'll wait to buy.

Atb

His2jen

Regarding,...
'I'm assuming the opening of a stope in itself probably wouldn't be RNS-worthy, and we'll have to wait for the next trading/production update for news of progress on that front?'

Yes pretty much. Certainly not a stand alone RNS but doesn't mean it wouldn't be included in one alongside other news.
In writing they have confirmed in May in the AGM Q&A (available on website) that the collapsed stope has been recovered (albeit the high grade ore had been diluted) and a further stope was already being developed, with target if 3/4 operational this year which will be maintained going forward.

Verbally in an investor call (can't find any links) I'm sure they've confirmed further stope(s) have been opened already and they now intend to develop 5/6 this year.
I can't prove this though and it's reliant on m my memory so may need others to confirm if I'm dreaming or validate.

Atb

Ella, can't see that myself. Mostly as
1. He wouldnt be putting tweets out to say he is doing a placing without an RNS
2. He specifically refers to the July placing, and thanks those who took part in it
3. That placing was at 5.5p so the teet saying thanks would be a bit harsh right if he placed lower now lol

Not saying a placing won't happen. However I firmly believe this tweet isn't referencing a new one

I don't think he would be sharing clues if he had major unknown spin off news. He is way too cautious.
I think it's just excitement over the drill programme.
Re spin off or sale will have to see. I'm defo in the camp that he has indicated KAV are explorers not producers and will look for a major

Atb

Ella re your comment

'I shall reserve judgement until Monday morning. I'm not expecting it to bad news long term but I suspect we are about to have a short term blip.'

I read this totally different. I read it that Ben T is basically saying thanks for those who put money in the compan and trusted him and that he hopes they will now see that trust paid off.

Not sure where you get short term blip opinion from?

Atb

Think it's excitement about the prospect of the drill program and the potential.
Exciting times..... We hope

Re 'You're a good poster in my eyes over Fukurokuju79.' Thanks Noob appreciated
I think I'll take my time here and decide in due course. Not point rushing in even if I don't get the bottom.

Atb

Sorry, Just couldn't help myself.
Love a bit of poet banter.
I started reading here as I think it was Noob or someone posted on RMM about the infamous sock_filler & humble pie poster and it got me curious.

Anyway - doing some research here. I can see they need to do another phase of drilling etc. I suppose it could be next year but any source/ indication it may be sooner?
Price seems to have stabilised at about 9p ATM so possibly a good time to buy.

Atb

Yes the anomaly at Fwiji is primary but as per commencement of drilling RNs it also stated...

'This year's programme will also focus on the Cheyeza and Muswema Target areas where the drill target locations are to be finessed upon the completions of a high resolution airborne geophysical survey over these target areas.'

Atb

It certainly may change their understanding and model.
Have to wait and see what happens as they drill d deeper at current home and then at next b target.

Exciting stuff. I laughed when been said about the Geo's being really excited with their rock porn... Lol

To be clear I'm not saying it can't be done professor.
I'm significantly invested here and have been some time.
My point is it's too early to consider economic discovery at this stage, after this one hole/sample. Clearly anything that has pay starting at depths 650m+ won't be cheap to mine. Therefore would need decent grade and volume etc.
I was simply saying I don't think they are hiding more at this stage but clearly it's positive and potentially significant.
We need to see if there is more visible as the hole is drilled upto the technical rig limit of 1km.
Then let's wait for cores to be cut, shipped and analysed, and the stratigraphy to be assessed against the model and potentially the model revised.
Clearly this may change their view as they expected it higher in the gabbros but found the anomaly within the older deeper Proterozoic (hence why they had heated discussions if they should keep drilling before getting the visible cores).
So I'm encouraged, and positive and not ruling anything out but absolutely it's the very start.

I'm looking forward to emerging news and the so whats from the Geo's in the coming days, plus potentially further info as they drill deeper, news on revised interpretation of drill b and the rest of this initial campaign.

Atb

Hi Ella
I agree they got news out fast before full shift change to avoid potential leaks of the price sensitive information.
I also agree we will likely get more news in the coming days however I think this will be more about Geo's decyphering what this find implies, and also more information of the new interpretations of drill b target (as mentioned in the stockbox).
I'm not sure I expect anything further hidden info immediately about these cores until analysis though. I say this on the basis they've released the core images which I don't think they'd have done if they had more they were hiding.
That said they are still drilling so I'm not ruling out more info on what they may find as they go deeper.
I think it's interesting as the Proterozoic area that has shown mineralisation is wider spread across the KSZ, but as Ben T said it's deep!
Certainly interesting times.
Atb

Yes Ella. The potential remains outstanding and today helps improve confidence along that journey of discovery.
Exciting/nail biting few months ahead

To me today is less of economic importance (albeit I may be wrong and happily would love surprising results in time) but more important is the proof of concept / hosting of mineralisation before drilling the big B reading....
Can't wait for that and then I hope massive mineralisation RNS fingers crossed

I'm sure you're technically correct Keith. I can't possibly counter your more informed and educated view on the geology.
Personally I. Find it it encouraging they are successfully drilling to depth ahead of the big seems reading target.
I'm also encouraged by the reported visible copper (albeit subject to analysis and may not be commercial etc) it's proves it's there and increases my confidence.
This is first drills so clearly it's about information, modelling and better informed future drilling for the real commercial massive sulphides etc

Atb

Why, did you decide you wanted an update today?

Ben will release when he has something meaningful to release. He has always been very good at Comms imo. Material news will be provided if there is any otherwise just need to let them do the drill campaign.

Ben would have probably released interim updates had the shareprice and negativity machine not been started after his last update. He said after that he will likely not piecemeal news now.

Atb

Ella,

FWIW my take from my own research. Used the respective numbers as per your post..

1. Rackler as taking the CASA liability. Audit currently being completed, ahead of Rackler raising capital.
2. Only court cases is one by MM for a bogus debt and a case pending to get rid of him (MM) leasing ARCMs plant. Both expected to be easily won.
3. ARCM has already confirmed the licence changes were ahead of potential commercial transactions and are in good standing. The changes are academic and if we had lost any licences this would have been reported.
4. Obvs thats speculation - Personally disagree with the intent around the surrender of share options. This was to reduce dilution and came with confirmation no further will be issued.
5. I don't see the need to RNS every action they make.
6. Who knows. Will see unless one of the various ndas with majors ends well in interim.

Anyway all we can do is invest or sell based on our opinions. Time will tell but we have a deep drill campaign in progress and multiple NDA discussions with several majors.

Atb

B009

Regarding.'From my perspective finance should be in place. Riverfort CLN is the uncertainty!'

I think financing has been the uncertainty to many and the fear of the debt loan not completing, and resorting to the need to use the CLNs.
However I agree the finance should be in place and will execute the next couple weeks. Therefore the need for using too much of the CLN has been mitigated. They only wanted to use as contingency so shouldn't need once finance in place.
Clearly largely triggered by the stope collapse, because they only had one open. Also remedied.

Atb