The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
It should be noted that ITM and, even more so, CWR are under a lot of pressure today after a poor day yesterday. This certainly isn't going to help matters, especially if it has triggered another shorter attack as appeared to happen last week, but I still feel that AFC has been relatively undervalued compared to its peers in recent weeks given all the positive newsflow and publicity.
Whatever the case, let's hope that there is a bounceback soon as the bargain hunters step in and/or the shorters buy back and/or the selling dries up! In the meantime, the drop back from this morning seems far from justified.
It is good to see that Der Aktionar continues to give positive press about AFC, including the editorial this afternoon about the excellent appointment of Dr Michael Rendall. This seems to be helping Tradegate to push ahead again.
Using Google translate, the last paragraph sums it up nicely:
"The topic of “green energy” is a megatrend of the decade. Der Aktionar recognized this development early on and recommended ITM Power 2019 and Plug Power 2020, for example. Those who followed the recommendations made more than 1,700 and 1,200 percent respectively. The AFC Energy share has also had a brilliant rally in the past few weeks and is currently consolidating. In the event of positive reports, the hydrogen share could break out of the sideways phase. Der Aktionar has the Pennystock on his watchlist."
https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/afc-energy-neue-spitzenkraft-an-bord-das-koennen-anleger-erwarten-20225307.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1612798404
Looking more closely, it says that Janus Henderson and Law Debenture have each added 2.5 million shares in a month.
Klunk, you beat me to it! It is reassuring to see that not all larger holders are doing a Schroders!
That was one of the holders I posted about a few weeks ago but it is good to see that seem to be staying long and strong as they appear to have added to their holding from 11 million on 31st December to 13.5 million shares at 31st January. They are getting serious.
https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet-data/factsheet/GB00B18S7B29-afc-energy/profile
indeed, on 7th January I wrote: "However, the 5 on the Fideilty site (3 linked to AXA, plus Janus Henderson and Law Bedenture) have a total of over 74million shares which is a pretty sizeable chunk of the shares (i.e. about 11%)."
Now, these 5 shareholders have more than 79.5 million shares so there do seem to be people buying quite heavily at these prices.
I seem to recall there being some recent speculation about AFC forming a link with Aggreko so it is interesting to see that Aggreko have confirmed that they are in takeover talks at a 39% premium to the closing price yesterday. This £2.25 billion bid goes to show how much money is floating around for the right firms in the power generation equipment sector. Interesting times.
Good to see Tradegate pushing towards new highs for the day on decent volumes after a small wobble.
It is bizarre that the SP took such a hit in recent weeks following the Ricardo news and it looks like Schroders started the drop and that fearmongerers (and possibly some shorters with them) created some mild panic alongside the wider market issues. It wouldn't surprise me to see lots of larger institutions jump onboard after the broker note today, with new all-time highs being on the horizon if the news keeps trickling through.
Excellent interview. There is so much more to look forward to, not just Extreme E but also Acciona, Jullich, HiiRoc, AlkaMem, ABB, Ricardo, the new Uk facility, the new Middle East facility... and more?
For me, the key quote is:
"The AFC Energy alkaline fuel cell therefore presented Extreme E with a viable technology which met its goal of replicability worldwide in the push to transition away from polluting diesel generators."
It sounds like a real "watch this space" situation and the market still only just seems to be waking up to it all.
For old time's sake, I wonder if Tradegate will have a strong finish today. The day's graph looks like it is set to continue to go up and, without the drip, drip selling on LSE at 66p or so, it might just pop up towards a daily high to set things up for the morning!
https://www.energymanagermagazine.co.uk/are-we-really-in-a-hydrogen-bubble-opportunities-remain-for-savvy-investors/
A pretty balanced view on the future of hydrogen companies, with AFC getting a couple of mentions, including:
"One specific vertical where fuel cells could provide the solution is EV charging as highlighted by AFC Energy’s recent partnership with ABB. Ammonia (NH3) provides the source of hydrogen for AFC’s fuel cell which is readily available and therefore means that deployment for EV charging is available now."
I think that the last paragraph sums it up nicely:
"Recently published forecasts from the EU, the Hydrogen Council and Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggest hydrogen could grow from 2% now to 13–24% by 2050. Many listed companies are bound to be winners along the way and, with the same economies that embraced batteries now embracing fuel cells as the next major technology they need, plenty of opportunities remain for investors, even with valuations being where they are today."
Let's hope that AFC is one of those opportunities as it certainly looks like it has been overlooked compared to most of the other companies mentioned!
Well, if it is 3 times this next January then that would be a great result.
My top-up buys on Tuesday were seemingly a bit premature but, as Newboy has said, the excellent news this month doesn't seem to have been priced in yet and there is seemingly more to come soon.
Great interview. When AB is asked about 2021 he says "The pipeline is growing exponentially" - how many more hints do people want to show that there is a lot more news to come this year?
Well, we had that blue finish! It seems pretty clear that it would have flown on any normal day and, hopefully,this marks the start of not only the real commercialisation but also the new approach to communication. I wonder if there will be some interviews and more detailed stories lined up...
Great news on the Extreme E from today. Not helped by the utterly crazy day for the hydrogen sector today but it looks like this has been the mother of all tree shakes. Ultimately, whereas the other main hydrogen companies are all still ahead of where they were at the start of the month, AFC is 30% down despite the tremendous Ricardo partnership and the long-awaited news today that the company has officially delivered its first unit.
This makes AFC look even more oversold than a few days ago at 70p+ and I wouldn't be surprised if there is a blue finish followed by a walk up in the following days as the market gets out of panic mode and reassesses AFC's progress. GLAH and well done AFC!
Well, there have been about 28 million shares traded today, including both main markets, which is over 4% of the company. Who knows what caused this but the shares have found new homes and I remain hopeful that days like today are just necessary blips on the journey towards full scale commercialisation.
Thanks, B2. It looks like you timed your top-up better than I did yesterday but life goes on and there is plenty of time to recover.
For me, the key point is that it was almost inevitable that there was going to be a sharp retrace after the great gains at the end of last year unless there was clear evidence of the new approach to communication. Anyway, it was my fault for believing that they would actively try to avoid this but it is nothing than a good RNS couldn't sort out !
Clearly, AFC cannot be held accountable for daily price movement, especially on days like today when other companies are struggling too. However, when a share drops 7 days out of 8, with this being fueled by a large shareholder selling their stake and lots of fearmongering related to apparently missed deadlines and a lack of updates, then I really do think that continued silence is far from acceptable.
Add in that all of this coincides with the appointment of a head of communications and it all seems more than a little ironic. A 30% drop in the share price from the appointment, with absolutely no evidence of attempts to stem the flow other than a vague reply to a shareholder saying that things will improve in forthcoming weeks, just doesn't cut the mustard for me.
Others may disagree and say that AFC have been exemplary but, to date, I see no evidence that the company even has a new strategy to communications other than emails to shareholders and the market is seemingly taking a dim view of this, fueled by all that scaremongering. I remain optimistic about the company but I do feel that most of this drop back was avoidable by be being a lot more proactive. Meanwhile, how many more days of this is considered acceptable if the company is actually doing as well as we have been led to believe? It just seems like such a waste to allow such damage to investor confidence just when it was starting to return!
Yes, a proper summary of the potential for AFC rather than that drivel earlier.
I wonder, given the trading so far today, if I am now allowed to point out that there has indeed been relentless selling for quite a while.
Not that any of this matters in the long run but it can't be long now until the selling is over......
There haven been frequent tree shakes for weeks and this could just as easily end blue as red. I am still waiting for the starting gun to mark the start of the recovery and I am wondering whether this will simply come from market sentiment/manipulation changing or whether it will need some good news from AFC. Hopefully, both will come into play very soon but, either way, this must be getting heavily oversold by now.