Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
We can also expect some fun and games to try to free up shares but I, for one, will be holding on! DYOR as ever
For years, there have been issues with "cheap" shares washing around, caused by everything from the SP nosediving to 3p to RA et al selling and huge fundraisers.
However, for the first time in years it looks like the shares are very tightly held, with there being little or no free float.
This runs the risk of some wild spikes in the short-term but the long-term outlook is looking like a rerating to compete with the other major hydrogen companies.
I think that anything under €1 (or even the apocryphal£1) is a bargain and it looks like the market is starting to agree. As I wrote earlier, it felt like the resistance was weakening after days of being held back.
AnneOwl, I agree, it is just that I believe that AFC is still undervalued and has been held back for days, with there being signs that this is about to end. As you say, a bit each day would be fine!
It is starting to feel like the resistance is weakening, a bit like when RA's last shares (we believe) were bought up. If this is the case, the rerating should be able to continue as we await more news. It is like holding back the sea...
Haggis, yes it has been a strange few days and the chart shows this. I can't help but feel that someone is building up shares in the background.
Whatever is causing it, the SP is not acting like it should do but then it rarely seems to with AFC. Lots of "buys" being put through as "sells" close to the mid-point, some other buys at the mid-point, delayed trades etc. Smoke and mirrors!
By my calculation, well over 400 million shares have been traded (including Tradegate) over the rise in the last 5 weeks, which is equivalent to about two thirds of the shares in issue, so there must have been a massive change in the shareholder base. However, most on the BB seem to have held solid or even topped up!
We can't really complain after the last few weeks, but AFC is really being held back today by whoever is offloading in the background as all the others are flying i.e. PHE/PPS/CWR/ITM. Hopefully, it will be a coiled spring once they are cleared.
Fact 1: the number of shares in issue is utterly irrelevant
Fact 2: beyond the major shareholdings register (above 3%), we have absolutely no idea who owns the shares and, even within the register, we do not know whether the shares are owned by individuals or the institutions themselves.
A company could have 10 billion shares, with 40 institutions each owning 2.5% and we would have no idea!
Of more relevance is the fact that some people/institutions are still selling into the recent rise but if the buying demand continues then these sellers will be replaced by new people/institutions, allowing the SP to continue to rise, with this process being accelerated by any positive newsflow. I have no idea why the shares are still being made available for sale but RA's exit shows that wealthy investors most certainly don't always maximise their profits!
Good to see that Tradegate is also getting close to the morning highs. Less calm than I expected!
Heath, I am hoping that IT is liaising with AB, EE and ABB to help AFC get off to a HNY!
Haggis, I would hope that AFC would do and RNS for the delivery of the Extreme E unit as this would be the first one to be sold and shipped!
Meanwhile, it looks like the battle at 55p is still raging after attempts on Friday and today to break through, as the transfer of shares from the impatient to the patient continues.
It looks like everyone is winding down for Christmas after the flurry this morning. It would be good to get the Extreme E delivery confirmation before then but at least we can expect a lot more communication in early January once the new head of communications starts, especially as AB has made so many hints about other strategic partnerships and other ongoing developments. The calm before the "media storm"?
Thanks, Agusta. Word is starting to spread about hydrogen and AFC!
I don't have a subscription but it looks like today's Sunday Times has an article about hydrogen including a mention of AFC. Anyone read it?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-the-great-hydrogen-gamble-cut-out-carbon-9f7dd2626
The week is not over yet but it has been the best one for AFC for a long time. Who knows, maybe Tradegate will get to 65p equivalent without all the MM games...
Absolutely, ShearClass. As frustrating as it was to watch ITM/CWR absolutely explode whilst AFC was stuck in the doldrums, they have created a clear path for AFC to follow. If enough investors realise this then, as you say, £1.50 or more would still represent good value. How often to opportunities like this present themselves? Let's see how many get onboard at these prices.
As some of us have been saying for quite a while, the only way to value the company seems to be to compare it to other companies in the sector. Any attempt to look at profit/revenue etc is pointless at this stage. Whether it is a dotcom rise in the sector or a true valuation of potential doesn't really matter in the short-term. As long as there are companies like CWR/ITM worth £2billion or so , with AFC showing just as much promise/potential as them, the peer comparison speaks for itself.
Only time will tell whether these valuations are realistic but it looks like the market has finally twigged that AFC is hugely undervalued compared to its peers and this means that the SP could still easily multiply from here on little or no news. If the positive news continues to flow then AFC could even overtake its peers. Don't forget, as AFC wrote again this week:
"AFC Energy is the leading provider of Alkaline Fuel Cell systems for the generation of clean energy, offering best in class performance and lowest operating cost."
If they are right then this is just the beginning of the rerating...
I clearly remember about this time last year when Tradegate first started and the SP spiked to over €0.60 from about €0.20 one evening. It was an anomaly at the time but we have waited patiently for it to become a proper price point!
I was just taking a look at the volumes of trades over the last month since the recovery started at about 20p and I can see that LSE has had about 230million shares traded in that time. Assuming that Tradegate has had between one third and one half of this volume, that means that close to a half of the total shares in issue have been traded. Clearly, there will have been some short-term trading within this but it seems pretty clear that a large number the weaker shareholders will have been replaced during this time.
Very interesting times and I would not be surprised if there is some stakebuilding going on behind the scenes, even if this keeps holdings below the 3% reporting threshold (which would be about £10million).