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Staggers, you reminded me that like last year we need to look at the morning notice and I found the new shares on Friday's announcement
https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=202104230800023569W
So, the shares were released on time meaning that profit taking could easily be the reason for the continued selling of shares. Very frustrating as the sector recovers but onwards and (hopefully) upwards!
Short of a TR1 notification, we will never know who is selling but I don't think that there has been enough volatility for day traders to be the reason. It is much more consistent with larger sellers offloading at a set price.
Ultimately, none of it matters in the end and I suspect that the unusual delay (albeit within the 30th April deadline) of releasing the placing shares isn't helpful when it comes to encouraging buyers but the impending capital markets event should create an opportunity to clear the sellers out IMHO.
DW, I agree but I have been waiting for the sellers to run out of shares for months now!
Well, somebody seems determined to peg this at 70p whilst the rest of the sector continues to fly. AFC always seems to be plagued with sellers, and the latest placing appears to be the cause for the profit taking this time, but with so much to look forward to in the coming days/weeks/months, I suspect that it is only a matter of time before AFC starts to play catch up outperform the sector.
It is quite surprising that the good news just keeps on flowing but that the penny isn't dropping for more investors, especially now that the sector seems to be recovering.
For AFC to justify employing "engineers", "specialists" and "technicians" in multiple fields then they need to be very confident of orders, especially as they say that demand is growing strongly with the scaling up accelerating further. I look forward to the penny dropping in the coming days and weeks!
Eddietheo, I would agree if the cash was earmarked for cashflow in the coming year but this placing is very different, especially with £30+ million already in the bank to cover years of normal cashflow, and you could easily argue that the money can earn interest pending a large revenue-generating project coming along. The mind boggles what would happen if the company needs £65 million to fulfil orders!
People seem to be forgetting that the money is in the bank so most of the dilution is already offset by the money in the bank, at least until it is spent. The only real dilution is the reduction of future gains (or losses) as there are now more shares to divide up these gains (or losses) i.e. doubling the MCap will now require more good news to be priced in than before the placing.
However, add in the good news that came with the placing and I think that the effects are minimal, with the market seemingly taking this view as well.
It is ironic that AFC doesn't always benefit from the sector rises like yesterday but then immediately drops back when there is a slight sector fall like today. Whilst this certainly isn't the first time that this has happened, I still feel that this is related to the placing this time and that the dust needs to settle once the shares are on the market before the next leg up can happen. No doubt, many people will be assuming that the SP will drop back as soon as the new shares are on the market and, whether or not this happens, it should be able to bounce back up pretty quickly.
On the positive front, this disconnect between AFC and the sector offers hope that the company will be able to outperform the market and move independently if the good news continues to flow and I wouldn't be surprised if a snippet of good news comes out alongside or around the time of the shares being issued in order to emphasise this point. Then there is the capital markets event to look forward to...
Been out for the day and look in to see that CWR and ITM are now flying and up 10% whilst AFC is pretty much level. The joys of being an AFC investor!
Mind you, I wouldn't be surprised if the SP catches up pretty quickly after the new shares are released and people see that the SP is not about to fall back. Time will tell, as ever.
It looks and feels like the long-awaited sector recovery has started, with CWR already up 7% and ITM up 3%. Strangely, AFC is slightly down, presumably due to the recent placing, but I would think that AFC will be pulled up once the dust settles properly.
It strikes me that the main reason that more people are selling than buying at the moment (with some of these possibly selling placing shares at a small profit) is because of the negative sentiment in the sector generally. If AFC continues to produce good news then it should still be possible to see further rises in the SP but if the sentiment in the sector also turns positive again (which it should given all of the moves towards the hydrogen economy) then today's prices could look like bargain basement ones.
What amazes me is that there are not more buyers snapping up the shares that continue to be dripfed into the market day after day. Th e placing was oversubscribed a few days ago at 64.5p and this was before anyone knew about ABB and Dutco investing or the new data centre angle. Logic suggests that there would more than enough buyers willing to take the plunge given all of this and I suspect that if the buying starts to pick up then a feeding frenzy could follow but time will tell.
WH Ireland have also issued a bullish new note today and "We place our fair value estimate under review pending an upward revision to reflect the potential of AFC Energy’s newly announced strategic relationship with ABB targeting the data centre market."
Interesting times and I would suggest that AFC is looking more undervalued by the day when compared to other companies in the sector.
Agusta, the days of Tradegate rising in the evening seem to be long gone. I fondly recall all those evenings when Tradegate would rise in the evening, just to fall back the next day when LSE opened. Now, the reverse seems to be true, with LSE dragging it up each morning and it feels like the big spike on Tradegate at the end of December when LSE was closed has left too many people nervous for months afterwards!
On balance, I am much happier this way around as LSE is still the main player but it would be great to see some days when both are on fire! Who knows, tonight could be the night but I very much doubt it...
The negotiations for a placing this size, especially with partners involved, would have taken weeks so we could easily have seen a situation where word got out when the SP was struggling in the 40s, with the final price being in the 30s. However, they secured a very good price at 64.5p, with it being oversubscribed, and I would say that AB has played a blinder.
There is still quite a lot of selling from profit takers etc but there is also very strong buying demand and if this continues then the long-awaited rerating could finally start once the sellers dry up.
Thanks, all. It looks like the pressure is starting to build now that the weaker holders and profit takers have been shaken out, with Tradegate even seeing some buying pressure for the first time in a while, so let's see what the next few weeks bring...
There are too many positives to the developments today to properly process them, let alone put them in a post, but for me the key point is the derisking of the investment.
Not only does putting £35million more in the bank, at a price higher than it has been at times in recent days and within a phenomenally quick time, give the company additional security from a funding perspective but it draws a line in the sand for what the shares are worth. For months, people have been bashing the share, talking about imminent drops, over-valuations, gaps to fill at 37p etc, but today's fundraising puts a very strong statement out that large investors consider this to be worth at least 64.5p.
This should fundamentally change investors' perceptions of the share price, and break away from the previous 16p line in the sand from the last fundraising, and I suspect that a lot more buying confidence will be seen in the coming days once the dust has settled.
When you add in the likelihood that many more institutions would have wanted to get into the fundraiser today then this opens up the possibility that lots of them will be looking to snap up any shares that are sold at the current levels, especially with the capital markets event just around the corner.
If you then start to think about the strengthening of the partnerships today, the new target areas, the bullish comments from the company and all the other great news this year and the mind really starts to boggle.
There were more than enough people up early this morning posting about "dilution" and concerns about yet another fundraising to show that the shares really are going to be in demand soon and I, for one, will not be falling for this and will hold onto my shares more tightly than ever.
I can still recall saying that AB et al were giving incredibly strong hints about what was to come many moons ago when the SP was a fraction of what it is now and, as far as I am concerned, these hints are stronger than ever and I feel that the company is still only at the start of the journey towards catching up with its peers in the sector. GLAGLTH and DYOR as ever!
Just saw this myself too. It is an excellent interview and underlines the significance of Extreme E and the progress that AFC is making. Why there is still the drip, drip selling after months of good news is beyond me but such is life!
"Our work at the first race attracted significant interest, not only from the host country, Saudi Arabia, which is set to be one of the world’s hydrogen powerhouses, but also from a number of prospective partners and customers that are beginning to realise the benefits alkaline fuel cells can play in remote power environments."
Watch this space, IMHO!
This is an interesting approach as this will, in my view, be the first time that the company aims to "provide a full update on AFC Energy's commercial progress". I have been asking for this for months and I am pleased to see that the capital markets event is aimed at doing this, amongst other things.
It seems unlikely that they would set themselves up for a fall so I am already looking forward to the event and, in the meantime, I hope that a new Chairman is appointed and that there will be lots of news, including about the Acciona trial and the new MSP unit.
I forgot to ask about Hiiroc in my AGM questions and it is too late now. Did anyone else ask as it would be good to get a sense about what is happening with it?