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I understand that there is provision in Aviva France's division for these liabilities which will pass in the deal to Aema.
However, Aviva has agreed anything over and above those provisions which may arise in the future will be picked up by Aviva.
Perhaps not quite the poisoned chalice you think....?
MNG would be a good bolt on acquisition IMHO. Undervalued with a low PE, but heavily UK focussed with great prospects following Wealth Management platform Ascentric last year.
You'll forget about the purchase price if, in a few weeks time when they announce full year results, they announce a special dividend in addition to their normal one.....they have a habit of doing this every few years.
I think there might be a little doubt in the city that they can maintain the profitability that we have seen in the last 12m which is why it is trading sideways but as you say a good execution of plan in the US could easily deliver.
Not sure I altogether agree. Certainly all current goods news is factored in for now but 1 year share price growth of 22% and 2 year growth of 103% is pretty darn good when you you compare it 0.1% in the bank.
There seems to be considerable momentum of spend when you look at the UK Public Sector procurement. I would say that CCC has a significant edge when it comes to cumulative value of contracts i.e. they pick up bigger structural projects on the whole whereas SCT seems to pick up smaller value software contracts. I know nothing of which is the best margin.
CCC for me is more interesting as it has now been listed as a Strategic Partner for UK Gov and is spreading its wings to US - with industry veteran Norris still at the helm he has the skillset and ambition to broaden the company's reach whilst staying true to the core philosophy which is to offer big companies a great global service.
PS I don't work for them but have held shares in CCC since their floatation in '98 so I've seen some good and tough times but I feel that they are on a bit of a roll if they can quickly integrate their two acquisitions from 2020.
£136m would deliver an EPS of c£1.19 which is a PE of about 21 on todays price.
To have net cash of £188m at year end versus £218m last year AND having paid out for Pivot and BT is impressive.
If year end sales were +8% for the group including acquisitions = c£5,457m and 3% excluding acquisitions = £5,204m that means that the acquisitions contributed £253m top line for Nov-Dec.
Crudely extrapolated that could be c. £1,518m TO annually.
Working on the assumption they hold sales rate and can achieve similar average net margins of 2.7% as the underlying business the acquisitions could deliver c £40m PBT next year or £33m net . We "could" be looking at an overall business with net profits of c.£165m or about £1.40 a share.
There's a lot of ifs and buts here I know but with a fair wind we could be seeing £28 a share this time next year.
Add to this the likelihood of a special dividend I am happy to hold this stock.
I'm loving this newfound website - quite addictive reading the public sector contract wins. Can £5b be right for a 1.5 month project - so that's c£625m for each of 8 contractors?!
Anyway, I guess we will get an update this Friday as CCC have an update scheduled.
Hardup,
This is the question on everyone's mind and so many ways to calculate it. I havent the time to do DCF analysis of each division.
The easiest way is to compare PE ratios for similar companies so for the OTC division I would be looking at Reckitt Benckiser and Unilever (although a bit more food brand oriented than OTCs) - they are operating on 21.65 and 18.65 respectively.
Then to look at drug companies which on average operate in the mid 20s PE ration - Pfizer is 24 for example.
GSK is 11......I don't know the split of sales between drug and OTC but I am reckoning on a sum of the parts of between £18 -25 and hope that this is conservative.
I am not a ramper so encourage you to DYOR.
I'd be interested to hear others opinions.
If there is substance to what I have read this week from their investors day, that they are looking to have double the number of blockbuster drugs they have by 2025 then I think we could be in for an interesting time - a maybe more growth than boring.
The split will bring about a proper valuation for both divisions and potential open up some M&A more easily because its easier to value.
Crudely calculated but Telefonica have 30,722 masts against 82,000 for Vantage. Based on €7.7b selling price for Telefonica Vantage would be valued at the upper end of the estimates c.€20b
Cooler, ditto your sentiments - it's hard not to get emotional about some share dealing especially if you bought in as a customer too (which I did). I also feel this is a complete stitch up and hope a bidder comes out of the woodwork in the next day or so - which the city seems to think there is based on the c.3% SP premium on the offer price currently. If the general market has gone up 18% since the start of November I feel sure that TALK would now be c.£1.10-1.20 without the offer.
Totally agree about the FAANG stocks - I read an article earlier this week about the advent of the "free" trading platforms....most notably one called Robinhood. The irony is in the title - the millenials are going crazy for it and are spending money they havent got literally betting on these stocks. One 21 year in the US was able to run up losses of $750k and sadly took his life! So very worrying as it appears to be largely unregulated. I am sure Bitcoin is also another bubble to pop (again).
I too topped up today at 1402 and I was happy with that price from a long term perspective. I feel the city are too Covid focussed in the pharma space right now - AZN and others have been very bullish whereas GSK has had a quiet but methodical approach. I am personally betting that GSK will be the long term winner even if they aren't first to market. Covid aside, this business on current PE ratio looks 30%+ undervalued and come the split in shares the value will come through.
As ever it is best to drip buy on a falling market but IMO anything below £3 on this share is a great long term hold. I don't do short term trades so you may have a different strategy.
1st Quarter results impressive, and with a commanding position in hygiene, should continue for the rest of the year. Nigeria is clearly the problem child for the company - always has and hard to see stability in that region going forward.
I was referring to the Indus Tower business in India - figures I quoted are correct. It is being hived off in the same way as the EU towers business.
I hold NG also but not for startling capital growth but for divi. I am resigned to it going no where in the short term as it is under the cosh with negotiating with HMGov and Offgen about how much they are allowed to make from their assets.
Based on the current proposal of just 3.95% (versus 7.5% now) I could see NG cutting dividend as we still have a disproportionate bias towards UK versus US assets.
That said, the onus on infrastructure with the inevitable move to electric vehicles has to play in the negotiations as there's no way a business can work on a return of 3.85% over base rate.
Worth about$1.7b to Vodafone and $400m to Vodafone Idea. The latter is selling their stake the former is retaining it.
Small compared to the European Tower business but the city are so focused on the debt burden of VOD that they are hardly factored in the current share price.
I agree that the broader market is increasingly bearish so we may see a diluted effect of such splendid results and projections.
The thing I am most excited about is their increasingly aggressive acquisition strategy. The announcement of this new US acquisition today (Pivot) builds scale rapidly in one of the biggest global markets for IT sourcing and services. It adds just shy of £1billion turnover and £20m net but with CCC's scale they should be able to build net margin contribution in time. I think the headline amount paid was £60m plus debt so doesn't seem unreasonable and is to be paid out of current cash.