Reality Check2 Dec 2018 15:04
Lot of historical nonsense on here re: 'Bidding War'......All there is at present is a public expression of interest from one party.
- IMO circa 5% of comments on the BB are from informed & realistic investors/traders.
- Remaining comments are from gamblers who appear to mainly trade in penny shares /AIM.
In terms of what is the realistic valuation of Flybe - this will always be subject to debate and the market will determine the true valuation. It doesn't matter whether an individual believes it should be 30p/40p/50p/60p, etc per share - in the end the market will determine the value.
It's only pure market speculation that has driven the SP to a circa 100% increase over the past few weeks....and this is a FACT. If it wasn't for this speculation, then the SP would still be in the circa 10p range. There is a genuine reason why the SP dropped to sub 10p. The business as it currently stands does not make any profit. Profit warning after profit warning has driven the SP into the ground. Little point in anyone pointing out that it made money in the summer period (one man with a 50 year old Cessna 172 could make money in a summer period).
Before anyone gets carried away with what they believe to be a realistic valuation of Flybe, the below example is a good one to demonstrate that airlines are usually ruthless on valuations in respect to acquiring a stake or takeover.
VUELING:
Back in 2012/13 IAG purchased a controlling stake in Vueling (just over 50%), the vast bulk of the remaining holding was controlled by Iberia (a subsidiary of IAG). At the time of purchasing the controlling stake, Vueling had a reported Net Asset value of circa 800 Million Euros and had a decent EBITDA.
I believe IAG paid circa 130 million Euros for their stake (albeit the stake should have been worth circa 400 million Euros based on reported Net Asset values). The point being is that it doesn't matter what any individual believes what the valuation of any airline should be - the market will always determine this.
In terms of where the FLYBE SP goes next - it's just guesswork.
- IMO, if the 'Virgin' expression of interest goes nowhere, then it's highly likely the SP will retrace back to 10p range.
- if indeed any commercial agreement with 'Virgin' materialises - it will be the exact nature of any agreement that will determine the SP. (Will people stop going on about Branson - he no longer has a controlling stake....he no doubt will have an opinion, but the money boys from Delta control the purse strings).
It is worthwhile noting that the BOD of Flybe instigated the process of putting itself up for sale - hardly now in a position of bargaining power. IMO realistic valuation o
IMO, if any other airline was interested, then ask yourselves why they did not make any offer over the past 12 months or so (and please don't mention Stobart - I'm taking about real airlines).
Is 'Virgin' only now showing some interest because they low Mcap?