RE: Forecasts so far7 Jun 2018 12:30
Visitor..........it appears your maths are a tad off?? To acheive an annual target of 107koz they only need 8916oz a month!
HUM have always stated that they are targeting 132,000oz in the first full year of production, as in April 1st 2018 - March 31st 2019. That equates to 11,000oz a month.
The reported gold production figures during the ramp up phase which was effectively the 1st quarter of production, albeit not commercial production, as that was announced to commence from 1st April 2018, was 18,785oz - In April they then had a record month and produced 10,423oz. I suspect, the trend will have continued through May and another record month will be reported, maybe not until we see the Q2 results which would likely be issued around 11th - 16th July 2018. Bert has mentioned on occasions that the preference will be to report production figures quarterly, this is a more refined commercial approach and i suspect that HUM will adopt this for Q2 figures.
Ramadan - This is an age old religious format that has been practiced for centuries, the Muslim world continues at the same pace with Ramadan or not, besides the plant and mining operations run 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, there will be no issue at all with Ramadan.
Finally, the incident was a breach in law and order and handled completely be the Malian Government, the mine where the incident took place was Komana West which is has not currently been started, this is due to start in October / November 2018. They are currently working Komana East 254 hours a day, 7 days a week with absolutely no down time, the plant is working the same and all the mining and production operations continued during the incident, because as stated the Malian Government handled the situation and it was not HUM staff and management / operatives involved.
Your point about December / Jan due to holidays generally means lower production, well not at Yanfolila, they have a plethora of mine operatives and plant / shift workers so that no down time due to any calendar event occurs (except of course the usual statutory odd day here and there holiday). The mine is operated by a contractor who adhere to a 600 page contract, they need to be on the ball to ensure that they make money so that takes the responsibility away from HUM and is an excellent driver to ensure that ore is fed to the plant.
Not much more to say really, other than if HUM announce May production at over 11,000oz then it is BOOOM TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!