Member Info for fsjamescampbell

OthodeLagery - I didn't, i just kept it in a sinoke format. But yes you are right there are years when AISC could be as low as say $500 - $600 / oz - I recall seeing a graph on a recent broker note that plotted the estimated AISC over the LOM years. It's a fair and poignant point that you make and helps the bottom line even further.

POG is a concern for all gold miners at the moment but given Q2 figures the following is a simple example of the "FREE CASH" HUM will still be making each "QUARTER" right down to POG being $1000 AISC based at the constant $790 per oz as reported and maintaining the 33koz average up to March 31st 2019

1. POG @ $1250 - HUM FREE CASH = $15.18m - STERLING AMOUNT = £11.84m (12.2% of current MCAP)

2. POG @ $1200 - HUM FREE CASH = $13.53m - STERLING AMOUNT = £10.55m (10.88% of current MCAP)

3. POG @ $1150 - HUM FREE CASH = $11.88m - STERLING AMOUNT = £9.27m (9.56% of current MCAP)

5. POG @ $1100 - HUM FREE CASH = $10.23m - STERLING AMOUNT = £7.98m (8.23% of current MCAP)

6. POG @ $1050 - HUM FREE CASH = $8.58m - STERLING AMOUNT = £6.69 (6.9% of current MCAP)

7. POG @ $1000 - HUM FREE CASH = $6.93m - STERLING AMOUNT = £5.4m (5.57% of current MCAP)

POG is a worry for HUM at the moment as it is for everyone in the Gold industry but the above demonstrates the very healthy quarterly PROFIT / FREE CASH that HUM will still be generating right down to POG being $1000

Reading some superb articles last night on the current gold position the turn will happen and it will happen violently, when it happens is the biggest question for gold based investors alike. This certainly helped me to get to grips with the current POG and the confusion and questions around how this affects HUMs bottom line. To me it is displaying sustained health right the way down to $1000 / oz.

(Please feel free to check the above figures of course).

Yes commervan, technology in all industry moves on at a rapid pace! The good thing is there are new and improved ways coming on the market all the time to maximise well stimulation and hydrocarbon extraction!

For anyone invested, this was a report that i put together last year after meeting with David Sefton. I always had AAOG down as a future superstar.....sadly the events of last year with cash, delays and poor workover results contributed to the poor sp decline etc. Nevertheless, the fundamentals remain the same and the high potential that this soon to be drilled well has. is mind blowing!

https://drive.google.com/file/d/11fbxlk1ySbB1IewOYCrX6raEKIMT2Nsc/view?usp=sharing

Indeed Jibbo :) - a bit of relief from the last 5 trading days............

1234567mz - I have to disagree, Dan Betts was faced with opposition at every turn when he pitched the idea to build a gold mine and plant in Mali. He was told that it can't be done or it is madness to try and develop a mine and build a plant on a limited budget. He was faced with challenges throughout the process, the ball mill went missing due to shipping network issues. By hook or by crook they managed to locate the ball mill, retrieve it and get it to site for installation. For those efforts i would give total credit where credit was due!

I would say that a huge amount of trust has been developed and for the small arms length investment in BH to ensure that the deal did not go away or slip through their fingers warrants a degree of initial trust until the DD can be fully exercised and a full account can be addressed to shareholders so that we can finally judge for ourselves whether it is a poor, good or superb deal and brings high value back to shareholders.

HUM are a producer now and their biggest driver is generating cash and lots of it, we all know how that is going. For some reason that doesn't appear to excite the market, most pi's think they are traders and often become unsuccessful rainbow chasers! (I include myself in that bracket on occasions, i do take a punt on the odd oversold, distressed or sentiment driven stock, part of the herd so to speak)!

HUM are producing gold via a simple gravity and CIL processing route they managed recoveries of 95.2% during Q2, they produced 33101oz during Q2. At the end of the day if this continues and they sort the legals out for share buy back later in the year they will embark on a share buy back program. They are drilling to extend the LOM and by end of say Q1 2019 we could well be looking at a mine with a 10 year life, then on to the next pit area to continue to extend the LOM. Comms, arms length investmens, how many events Dan attends and so on a so forth pale into insignificance, i invested in a high cash generative company! DB can sit there in front of a camera and do an interview wearing pink knickers and smeared in peanut butter for all i care, as long as i am getting 3 - 5p a share dividend going forward and sat on a healthy profit from my investment and all because we are generating free cash from gold sales from gold produced at the plant year after year after year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mot14GPZex4

Never get tired of seeing this!

cont'd...........

Retail appear to be selling and a larger buyer is gladly mopping up, new retail investors will return at some point, probably very soon given drilling updates are probably only a few weeks away, Q3 results landing around 8 weeks time and so on. The lower the sp and the more weeks we gather "free cash" will certainly boost the share buy back when this can legally happen as the shares to be bought back will be cheap and HUM will get more for their money, less shares in issue than anticipated and therefore the share price will move forward at a superb rate, interest will be further generated, shares will be more liquid and sentiment will be very high.

Solution - Patience, top up on lows, keep accumulating if funds allow given the stonking fundamentals, why? The risk is far lower the closer the bottom you get to, then the turn comes and it doesn't have to go very far forward to bring your losses back in line, then when it gets back to reasonable and true trading levels you are in more profit than you were last time.

Retail investors are manipulated through fear of paper loss, what if i don't recover losses, some other stock looks ripe i will try and recover over there and come back and so on and so forth...........its a game, most company fundamentals are poorly researched by the mm's and they look on BB's and social media to judge sentiment, they then play on that either in a positive way to walk up a share or negatively to walk down a share. Its all a game, turn off, believe in the fundamentals, because they are without doubt and without debate some of the strongest fundamentals around for any AIM stock.

Fundamentally HUM is astounding, they have hit every target during financial raise, pre-project planning, project procurement and execution, mining operation cross over with end phase plant construction, mining operation cross over with end phase plant construction and then commissioning, first gold pour in which our very own CEO Mr Dan Betts got stuck in with a shovel and helped to bring the first gold pour to fruition, positive and remarkably fast ramp up stage, announcement on commercial production within 3 month phase in 2018, very positive first full commercial production quarter with 38700oz of gold sold of which 33101 was produced during that first commercial quarter netting $50m to the war chest of which $20m was free cash, reducing net debt down to $15m!!!!!!

SP has under performed for reasons we can only speculate, the likely culprit is retail selling due to fear, boredom and frustration, institutions mopping up said shares at low price due to lack of competition, brokers happy "honour" the big insti as they are likely a huge fund with millions of capital spend in many sectors over the financial markets.

BOD - have delivered but comms at crucial times like the site incident has been perceived as poor, as others involved like AMS reported "all is well" HUM took the stance that during their first ever commercial production quarter they would lay low, maybe this turned out to be the best scenario or maybe it didn't. DB made the comment about not buying shares to the caller on the cc and it came across wrong to PI's because the chap was only asking the question, a fair response in some respects, if DB sells shares it could hurt the sp, but maybe if the sp was above 50p and DB sold some shares it may only knock the sp 15 - 20% which could easily recover over a period. Maybe more updates on the current drill plan via social media, some more tweets from the gold room, tweets and statements about the mining operations, how is KW getting on the topsoil removal and so on. Updates on BH via social media, maybe a statement / RNS stating that "HUM operationally are delivering and they know of no other reason for the recent drop in SP"

I suppose that is it in a nutshell - Operationally I cannot find fault!!!! Fettling the market and instilling full confidence in the market with timely social media updates and RNS updates on more sensitive progress - could do better i suppose, but PI's always need more reassurance!.

cont'd.......................

Evening sands1971 - Yes probably some reducing positions at the moment which is playing right in to the ii's hands. I have had a few cheap ones too recently so i can't complain. HUM did $50m in gold sales in Q2 by selling some 38700oz of gold at around $1307 if they reach Q3 projections of around 33koz at an average POG at say $1210 then thats is still a whopping $40m and near on $14m free cash.........POG is a worry but at the moment we are still making a packet even on the weaker POG. I expect that to close the year at around the $1220 - $1250 mark and then hopefully during 2019 the POG and strengthen and stabilise..............the downside for HUM is still mighty and very healthy even if POG sneaks under $1200

Hi TBTT :)

Yes very possible! Sadly too we have been talking down our own stock recently and been very disjointed as PI's, we are not one entity like an insti but a collection of like minded private investors with varying risk appetites and thresholds for pain and suffering!

It is clear to me though and also been confirmed by the morning star report that M&G have been swallowing up millions of shares. They will happily sit there and mop up the weak sells, make them pay for the shares i say, the only way we as PI's can make it difficult for them is to hold and be totally resolute!

I added a few more this week and i will as long as the lull is upon us. Rest assured we are oversold at the moment and we will clamber back up in the coming weeks and months and my collection of cheap shares should help. Fundamentally sound investment but alignment with operations is way off the mark, slight adjustment and re-alignment is very much needed, but it will happen, it always does! Just need to be brave and ride it out, add on the dips and reap the rewards, when it does climb back to 30p i will be sitting pretty with a nice lump of shares and a renewed sentiment driving us forward............only time will tell i suppose!

But no point talking my own investment down, BH has been a mixed bag of sweet and sour........given Dan's track record to date though fills me with the confidence needed to back their current process of DD. The full details will become apparent in due course and we can then all re-evaluate the pros and cons of the deal and see if it is a stonking venture or not. I suppose the good thing is out of the many hundreds of opportunities that come through HUM's door each month, they must only really consider the stand out deals and potential high end, high potential ventures!

#HUMLONGANDSTRONG

Earthling...............very possible that they are simple share swaps. CANA have been on and off the bid today, collecting shares at 26.5p then moving off the bid so it went to 26p after they had collected circa 3 or 400k shares. It is obvious that CANA have a large buy order they are filling as they happily came back on the bid at 26.5p at around 11am. Watch it turn blue tomorrow or friday, should end the week above 27.5p IMHO. You will find that some of those 100k trades will be both buys and sells. Its all a game and we just need to sit up and shut up until uncle big cock has filled his bag with shares then he will tell the mm's he is full and they will then let the sp rise again............sad sad sad financial game this at times! Follow the money i say and it is clear that PI sells are being eaten up by a larger buyer!

GoldenBull

HUM became cash positive following Q2 results. They cannot spend money on share buy backs that they don't have. Share buy backs are on the cards, they stated in the last RNS that there is a legal process to go through and we will be notified during H2. They will then look at the war chest full of free cash and decide, strategically when the best time to use said free cash to begin to administer a share buy back program.

..............with current trading activity is you can pretty much guarantee the sells are being mopped up by the big 100k lumps! Which just goes to show the only element that is likely having an effect on the low sp at the moment is the retail sellers! We need to wake up here, its obvious that M&G or A.N. Other are strategically and over time loading up on the weakness and impatient selling from retail..............we p*ss and moan on here like spoilt bratts when all along we can stand strong and hold our shares to prevent the corporate giant hoovering up the supply.....one thing for sure though, there will come a time when the retail investor picks up the baton again and that is when we will see the rise through the gears. It is utterly disgusting that ii's appear to be able to pick up the phone and say to the mm's "hey i will take 3 million shares this month, but i want them at 3p under the current sp"

Time PI's woke up and held stronger, too many rainbow chasing on AIM sadly!

Lurker5 - The most poorly researched poster on here.......see below HUM's Q2 update / presentation. Page 2 indicates 105-115koz 2018 guidance. Thats 2018 guidance Lurker and not the projected full 1 year production from April 1st 2018 to March 31st 2019 which is set at around 130 - 135koz. Poor poor poor research Lurker, come back when you know your facts.Taxes and so on are all factored in to the AISC........Recoveries have ranged since ramp up to today between 95.5% to close to 98%

http://hummingbirdresources.co.uk/_downloads/Hummingbird_Corporate_Presentation_Q2_Update_2018_(180719).pdf

Thanks Rickylfc5

Yes it could be taken as though it is expected, however, i reckon by September / October 2019 HUM will be in a position in any event to be paying regular dividends. It was more an attempt to see HUM cement the bond between shareholders and the free cash being generated. It could well underpin and then even elevate the current sp. Sentiment is the biggest driver of any share regardless of the fundamentals, we know this all too well as HUM holders. Our current sentiment is in a storm and our roofs and foundations are beginning to tremble. I think some injection of free cash directly back to shareholders makes the whole market sit up and take note.

HUM achievements this year alone are nothing short of tremendous! Let's see this shouted from the roof tops from the company. A controlled and well programmed PR drive via social media can be strategically mastered over a period of time to remind the market of all the positives that come with being a HUM holder.

I get that daily movements should not bother shareholders, but when they collectively add up to 6 months of decline, when fundamentally everything has slotted into place to create a winning entity, then a plan to combat and mitigate this decline has to be high priority. Daily movements over time add up to violent retraces both positive and negative. We hit 39.5p 6 months ago and now we are some 12.75p lower nearly 35% decline over the period given milestone after milestone of achievement, but above all, cash being generated, free cash increasing and net debt decreasing. This recent activity hurts both shareholders and the company, shareholders value decreases and we become a takeover target and all the sterling work to build the mine and plant becomes an inherent benefit to a larger player with deeper pockets!

I reckon a special dividend would help. its not about the money because with 200k shares and a special divi at say 1.5p that gives £3k - i would simply buy more HUM shares with it..........win win! Its a kind of simple initial share buy back. With 350m shares in issue to that would only cost HUM around £5.25m or $6.8m which is around 50% of the general quarterly free cash amount. They could announce it prior to the end of Q3 with a payment date mid Q4. I am pretty sure that is would not only generate interest but it would bolster confidence that HUM are returning value to shareholders.

They are certainly hitting all targets operationally, but with surplus cash and an amount that isn't going to stress the free cash balance it would certainly prove to be a much needed boost. Sometimes all it takes is for a little thinking outside the box. It is hard to see a high profitable company's share price take on a continues 6 month slide when all they have continued to report is good news..........actually great news!

Well done to Dan Betts, Bert Monro and all the management team for the continued excellent delivery out in the field. It really is a comfort to know that fundamentally everything is more than sound. But knowing the market is also a skill and many awful AIM companies play the AIM game to maximise MCAP and SP levels.

I am HUM long and very strong but i think some battling in the market is needed because 26.75p and an MCAP of around $120m when they generated $50m in revenue and $20m in free cash in just their first full Q of production, well 26.75p is completely out of alignment with achievements over the last 12 - 18 months.

Endeavour CEO picked up the first ever gold coin from yanfolila and they could well pick up the first highly valuable and cash generative gold producing company for an absolute steal. This has to be a concern and it has to be mitigated as each day we are being rifled the reality of a takeover is becoming ever closer and more and more attractive!

Cheers Lobon..........good read that :)

LURKER 5 - Check out my report from the site visit i went on in March 2018 sunshine.

Pages 39 - 47 is all about extending the LOM and the various zones around the plant including distances to the plant. Also then read page 48 "low hanging fruit" a poignant analogy that was explained by Murray Paterson (VP Geology) during his mining presentation.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1A318nkPecK6MzKMajCltUrOYfcZoeaHd/view?usp=sharing

Great post Darola................totally agree with everything you have said.

dropinmonkey - point out a fundamental reason to doubt HUM, the positivity i express is based on the targets and milestones that HUM reach each and every time. I will reiterate, they sold over $50m dollars worth of gold during Q2 - i would say that is something to be positive about. SP is way out of kilt with the fundamentals, i'm not positive at all about the sp, it stinks at 27p, but i have invested in the growth story that is unfolding and as it continues on track the sp will have to align and we can then see some better days financially. Keep delivering HUM, can't fault you at all for that!

Me too......drift down to here looks oversold! Had FISH on my radar for a while and it became increasingly ripe!