Member Info for fsjamescampbell

Serious test!!! Get a grip dm!

Are you on another planet! What the hell more could HUM do as a company?????? This drop is nothing to do with management at all and i am sick of hearing the same crap each time. Bert spelled it out at the proactive investor meeting when a moron in the audience asked "why is the share price dropping".

It is dropping because of weakness, impatience, talking down the stock, POG, AIM herd mentality and so on.........Bert gave us a statistic that actually made a lot of folk at the event prick their ears up "The retail investors on our register have reduced to 25% from 35% in recent months".

Below is a link to the presentation audio if anyone is interested........

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1i-BJXDsye5diiu0ocY_DVIOvRjrNr5mT/view?usp=sharing

dm - out of interest, list all the areas and points you feel that Dan Betts / HUM can do about the sp (other than hitting all their milestones repeatedly which is surely why we are all invested), as you say "the company has the means" - let's hear those "means"

Rickylfc5 - 25% retail investors on the HUM register. So as the shake continues the ii's are increasing their overall % of the register which when this turns will mean there are less shares for pi's to buy and you will see greater increases in sp.

It's all a cocked up game of "hold your nerve" problem is mm's know how weak and fickle PI's are and they prey on this. Most PI's chase rainbows. Start with 5k lose 10% on HUM, get scared, frustrated and see that their mate is doing 10% on another stock, he tells him how good it is blah blah blah and then he sells to join his mate, but he only has 4.5k in his pot now, he jumps ship and it goes down 5% because he bought at the top of a recent range, suddenly his 5k is 4.25k.............and the cycle continues!

Sadly every PI thinks they are a trader when in fact we are all just damaging each others investment.

HUM is a golden company and that is fact, value is not appreciated in the sp. How many companies do you know who have declared commercial production and within 6 months and bear in mind 3 of those months were a ramp up phase, then reported a positive EBITDA and profit!!

HUM have, are and will do the business over the months and years and pi's either need to buy and rely on the strong track record and potential to be continually fulfilled or just go an buy another fast moving lifestyle stock that will gladly fist you in the toilets as you take a pee!

Buy HUM

Remain strong

Reap the rewards

At $1100 POG Hum will churn out $10m free cash per quarter average based on their annual production target which they just reported they are comfortable of hitting. It makes the bottom line a bit tighter but they will still be highly cash generative!

Korg - You obviously don't understand where HUM are currently at and the journey so far to get to where they are today. The interim results are solid without question, they generated $22m EBITDA and $3.5m profit. This is over a 6 month period while 50% of that time was during a very successful and smooth ramp up phase. The other 50% being the 1st full Q of commercial production that was announced to have commenced on 1st April 2018. In reality the accounts are based over a short period of 3 months revenue generation, to which, they managed to show a profit on the books!

Accounts in the mining sector, particularly at the end of the ramp up phase and beginning of the commercial production phase, are very complex. What we all need to appreciate is that at the end of 2017, which was the construction phase of the project, HUM's cash position was very healthy as they drew down the remainder of the loan facility and they were still paying for various elements. They were projected to be around $12 or $15m if i recall but they never got that low in their cash reserves and then cash started to be generated whilst still paying for invoices. HUM knew full well they had built and commissioned the mine and plant on time and on budget but obviously not finished paying for it all. Hence the reason for the high "trade and other receivables" as shown on the interims as $33m, this should be considerably lower on the year end results.

So there would have been a unique and substantial amount of costs in H1 that we won't be seeing again in the final results and going forward through other future interims etc. Reporting EBITDA at $22m and profit at $3.5m the profit would be higher but i suspect that the entire construction costs of the mine and plant are being "written down" they are likely to be "written down" over the LOM which works out around the $12m mark.

The bottom line is that through a mixed period of ramp up and commercial production HUM displayed solid revenue generation and reported a profit! Bear in mind this is the first time in HUM's history that a profit has been generated and it puts them in a very lucrative position as a junior minor embarking on their production phase. Some juniors cash raise during this phase and they are then playing catch up for a number of years. Others have very large debt to pay down and this impedes profit being shown on the books. HUM are pretty remarkable in that they have seamlessly gone through a successful fund raise (one of the biggest on AIM at the time), procured, commenced, commissioned and then completed a near on $90m mine and plant construction project, successfully poured first gold when they predicted they would to then successfully ramp up to announcing full commercial production and to continue this rich vein of success, demonstrated cash positivity to then show string EBITDA at $22m and subsequent profit at $3.5m

Pretty damn special in any company's journey really!

Asterion..........care to outline the CAPEX you speak of?

What folk dont appreciate here is that interims have taken into account only 3 months of commercial production. Its a drop in the ocean yet they managed $22m EBITDA and $3.5m profit. The results are up to the end of June 2018 and commercial production commenced on 1st April 2018. 3 months of main revenue stream on the back of a RAPID ramp up phase and the end of a mine / plant build phase and they report SOLID figures like that.

Get a grip people, this is very early on in the process and HUM are CASH POSITIVE! They have likely generated an additional $30m plus during Q3 (factoring in lower production due to wet season) and stand a very good chance of reducing net debt to near zero!

To do all this with just 3 months commercial production is very solid indeed!

We are now worth £88m and we generated £50m during the first 6 months of 2018 with 3 months of that being ramp up! It is beyond funny how ridiculous this is!

Are you serious Olderandwiser...........you can't compare AAZ 6 month interims with HUM on a like for like basis when AAZ have been commercially producing for much much longer.

Do people actually realise that the interims really only cover April 1st 2018 to June 30th 2018 which is the only element that can be considered because this is the time that commercial production commenced. The first Q of 2018 was a rapid and very successful ramp up phase and can only be viewed as such when reading the interim results! To be honest HUM have performed remarkably well in the first 6 months of 2018.

Try comparing with a new gold producer and see how well HUM have performed. We have had 3 months of commercial production and they are cash positive and beginning to make a profit!

Absolutely Tomcorvid!

Wet season has predominantly been through Q3 and gold production is likely to be lower. We have not had results of Q3 yet but let us assume that production in Q3 has been 25koz against 33.1koz during Q2. With an average gold sale of around $1200 that gives HUM an additional $30m of generated revenue with $10m being free cash (based on $800 AISC). So let's assume that the cash position is $58m leaving net debt around $3m.

Q4 takes HUM back out of the rainy season, let's assume they pour another 33koz during Q4 that then takes them close to 110koz for the year (2018).

I would firmly say that all is well on track with HUM.

Because it only includes 3 months of commercial production! Dear me why don't folk read the RNS properly! EBITDA is $21.9m and profit at $3.5m this only includes the period from January 1st to End of June 2018 don't forget we have had another 3 months of commercial production. Cash as of TODAY or end of Sept could well stand at over $60m with net debt down at between $0 and $5m.

We need to remember that the Interim Results are only up to the end of June, the oz poured was known on the 19th July 2018 RNS which reported Q2 production. Also bear in mind that they only announced commercial production from 1st April 2018.

Today's Interims told us nothing more than what we already knew in terms of production and gold sales. The element that is significant is that in that short period which included a superbly efficient ramp up phase, HUM have come out making a profit and with a positive EBITDA.

Get some sleep.....lol :)

It covers the period up to end of June 2018 gold price was around $1350 - $1360 in Aprill this year and has come off since. Solid results and to show a profit during a period where 50% of the period was during the ramp up phase is very very good indeed!

I agree Buzz very solid Interim Results even though we already knew of the Gold poured to date as it has been previously reported. It will be interesting to see what the total gold poured to the end of September / Q3 will be. It could well be that HUM are touching on around 25 - 27koz given that Q3 has predominantly spanned through the rainy seasin in Mali. That would put Gold poured to date at the end of Q3 at around 76koz. Add a decent final Q4 to the mix and the (2018) prediction of between 105koz - 115koz is easily within grasp!

Well done HUM!!! Well on track to perform as expected, strong company, cheap shares.......defo time to increase my holding at today's ridiculously low prices!

I took an audio of the presentation and questions afterwards. I will pop a link on later so everyone can digest it.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7014711-hummingbird-resources-hum-reabold-resources-rbd-anglo-asian-mining-aaz-and-alan-green-on-i3e-itx-sms-hstg

Hi Jibbo, no idea mate.......i suppose it is because Bert is Head of Business?

Bert on VOX today and then presenting tonight..............should be good!

Sands you are spot on......personally i am glad we don't have the "herd" mentality here and the sell on news brigade! I don't doubt for a minute though that it could and probably will happen over the next few months and so on. What we have here with HUM is an investment that keeps reducing the risk whilst all the time increasing its value, this value over time will gradually be realised. The downtrend of the last 6 months, in some respects, makes this a screaming buy today as the risk at 27.5p is extremely low indeed!

HUM have now firmly set their sights on being a very very attractive long term hold. The 2 statements made by Dan and Murray are the icing on today's well baked RNS cake......

Dan Betts, CEO of Hummingbird, commented:

"Approving the second ball mill, in place of the tertiary crusher, at the same time as releasing our initial results from the 2018 exploration programme shows the confidence we have in increasing our Reserves at Yanfolila. The second mill will give us greater flexibility and 24% more throughput when operating on 100% fresh ore. I am delighted with the initial drill results and look forward to receiving more over the coming months.

I am very pleased to continue our working relationship with SENET who have been appointed the EPCM contractor for the second ball mill and look forward to carrying out another successful construction project with them."

Murray Paterson, Chief Geologist for Hummingbird, commented:

"We are delighted to have commenced exploration works at Yanfolila, with a new team, new eyes, new ideas and a lot of enthusiasm to be successful. As stated previously our focus is on targeting Reserve growth by drilling out known Inferred and / or de-risking the Indicated Resources at the 4 deposits within the mining permit but not yet in the Reserve mine plan. The results at KW show that the previous drilling didn't delineate and close off the mineralisation at this deposit. Drilling at Gonka is very exciting and we look forward to receiving and publishing the results when available."

If you want to invest in a growth story that is likely to continue to unfold over the coming weeks, months and years then HUM has to be up there with the very best.....it is in fact knocking on the door to being one of the best investments out there on this broken and corrupt market.

Throw dividends and share buy backs and POG increasing back to around $1350 and beyond and the value that can be extracted as a shareholder in HUM is stunningly attractive!

Yes sorry 5%.....alas i still have sausage fingers!

Morning folks - Forgive me if i appear a little out of touch. This was the explanation on the "potential" TCF numbers that was prepared for the Gherkin event last year. Just skimmed through a few posts and i saw Explorations post quoting...

"The recent 34 tcf Basin Model defines the total amount of gas generated in Tendrara area"

The original model explained the hercynian event where you invert the basin, erode away about 1 – 2km of section which in turn then freezes any further hydrocarbon generation because you have come upward, this is the generation process, however there is a latent effect where a small amount of generation continues until it halts.

All this is before any salt is present; this is the concept phase, the birth of the hydrocarbon entity. Then this section is further buried and we move upward to the formation of the TAGI and the salt seal then the Jurassic Cretaceous series pushing the rest of the Silurian, the Devonian and the carboniferous all through that petroleum generation window. So all these hydrocarbons are being generated and they are coming up through the Paleozoic some of which is being trapped within the Paleozoic some is coming up to the basin edge and then migrating up through the TAGI beneath the salt seal.

So from this model now the company who have created it can calculate the volume of charge which amounted to around 9 gigatons of petroleum, both liquid and gas which is equivalent to around 260tcf of gas, if you recall from the gherkin presentation the model is based upon a total basin generation of 260tcf of which the estimates remaining due to migration, seepage, and other anomalies that would lead to the loss of these hydrocarbons to lie at either the recently RNS reported volumes of 9, 17 and 31tcf. This is how they came up with the original numbers, this is based on gas found to date, historical data from previous wells, known geology extrapolated from proven Algerian basins in which tendrara and meridja both share (this is proven).

The 260tcf has dissipated over time leaving behind the potential volumes within various traps and sealed under the 1km salt. Most of the hydrocarbons have seeped through faults and out into the atmosphere. There is sufficient data around the previous wellheads to be able to make a very good estimate, according to this type of basin and the proven seal what they would anticipate to be in place just ready and waiting to be extracted and piped to the Moroccan and European people! This is also 1, 3 & 15% of the expected hydrocarbons being trapped they then applied a Monte Carlo simulation where the numbers 9, 17 and 31TCF were created.

This may well be irrelevant at the moment but i felt impressed to share this information as there was a similarity in the posts i read.

Take care, sorry i have not popped in for a while....i do like to read the bb now and then!