Member Info for freshair

Very frustrated by the current share price also, I assure you.

 
i3’s Q3 update was very positive. All of i3’s major shareholders (with the top 4 owning approximately 55% of the company) are not trading the stock (no TR-1’s), and the feedback we’re receiving from
brokers is that the turnover is “retail churn”.
 
Though my crystal ball is as broken as everyone else’s, I believe the share price pressure is resulting from increasing concerns over the potential for fresh COVID lockdowns in Europe, combined with
the news that large energy consuming countries will be releasing strategic reserves into their economies to push down frothy energy prices. The latter will, in time, simply result in higher commodity prices. See below:

 

 
(=) OIL MARKET:
The announcement of a coordinated withdrawal could be announced as early as today – with the US considering a reported [Bloomberg] ~35Mb withdrawal (timeframe unclear),
alongside others.

The US is likely to represent the largest share of the withdrawal, given all of the other participating countries do actually need strategic stockpiles given they are all
significant importers…
White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki:
“We have been having conversations with a range of countries about the importance of making sure that the supply out there meets the demand and helps prevent an imperiling of the global economic recovery… I don’t have anything to preview for you today.”
CHINA have already indicated that they will participate.

JAPAN’s prime minister Kishida indicated he would take part, although rules govern a SPR release can only be for emergencies (eg supply constraints / natural disasters) and
surprisingly the text doesn’t have reducing US gasoline prices as an emergency.

INDIA also indicated interest in particpating 
 
Strategic stockpile levels by country
 

Strategic crude stocks Mb

Days of demand

USA

609

30

CHINA

574

37

INDIA

26

5

JAPAN

290

83

KOREA

97

37

1596

 
However, OPEC+ may decide to avoid increasing output or even curtail production to avoid putting the market into an oversupply
situation when they next meet on 2 December.
 
As a reminder of what is happening:

The US Biden administration wants cheaper oil prices, blaming OPEC+ for not adding supply quickly enough.

US energy policy seems intent to increase energy dependence on OPEC+, in the process reducing oversight and control on global energy markets and impacting the US trade balance…

Whereas they could increase domestic production, while simultaneously significantly increasing emissions / environmental standards, which would benefit the planet vs the status
quo of just offshoring (and increasing) pollution to non-OECD countries 
OPEC+ have repeatedly indicated that they want importing countries to unwind inventories built up during the lows of 2020

OPEC+ have repeatedly signaled tha

Very frustrated by the current share price also, I assure you.

 
i3’s Q3 update was very positive. All of i3’s major shareholders (with the top 4 owning approximately 55% of the company) are not trading the stock (no TR-1’s), and the feedback we’re receiving from
brokers is that the turnover is “retail churn”.
 
Though my crystal ball is as broken as everyone else’s, I believe the share price pressure is resulting from increasing concerns over the potential for fresh COVID lockdowns in Europe, combined with
the news that large energy consuming countries will be releasing strategic reserves into their economies to push down frothy energy prices. The latter will, in time, simply result in higher commodity prices. See below:

If anyone wants the email, I can forward it to them.
The rest below ,oil being released by specific countries.
I sent back any news on Serenity?

 

I'm posting this because I am not privy to anything private from Graham.

hTtps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/oil-futures-hit-by-heavy-selling-kemp-2021-11-22/

I have to admit the high costs from the last figures still sticking on my mind. Biden on the verge of releasing oil to the market may have impacted the sp? Aeco gas doubled since August; tho', we are partially hedged. Have asked Graham to comment on the SP and whether BC weather has effected any drills?

Hello Vike , basically at the present time, they can buy production cheaper than they can drill.
Simonette is part of Montney, often put side by side with the giant US Marcellus field. They are more expensive to drill but described as company maker by i3. I asked Graham instead of making statements, to present a Capital Budget for Simonette to the shareholders and the market. This should provide support as we go forward.
There is recent news of one company buying two Montney companies within one year, so Montney is in demand.
Sorry if it wasn't you who queried Simonette?

We do not know if there's 100 mmboe thats recoverable? Everything is relying on their being oil to the West of Serenity. Presently Stoiip is based on pressure testing unless it's changed from the last I looked. You've been here G3 as long as I've been, so we don't need to know how good these lot are on the drill. We only survive because they thankfully bought into Canadian production. I'm happy with a single drill to the West, further drills contingent on the outcome.

" if connected to the Tain field as i3 anticipates, represents a mapped oil column of approximately 622ft TVD in the Captain sand alone. The net oil interval in the Captain sand was c.10ft of high porosity (30%) sand and thicker than in the up-dip Tain discovery consistent with the Company's expectation that the Captain sands thicken to the west in Serenity (as demonstrated by the c.150 ft of sand seen in the offset 13/23a-7A well situated to the west of Serenity). Reservoir quality is expected to be equivalent to that seen in the Tain wells, one of which (13/23b-5Z) tested at an estimated 2750 bopd from a 5ft interval in the Captain sand. Oil samples to be recovered from the downhole sampling tool are expected to be of similar quality to the 32° API oil found in the Tain field. The preliminary results, subject to further analysis, are closely in line with the Company's expectations and confirm the strong commercial potential of the Serenity area, of which i3 owns 100%.
Additional pressure measurements and samples are in the process of being taken and the data recovered will be analysed over the coming weeks to develop further appraisal and development options for the Serenity discovery; following which the Borgland Dolphin will mobilise to recommence drilling operations on the Liberator field. "
We don't need reminding what happened next do we.
Again just to mention Minos High is a prospect not a discovery.
Lot of risk for the sp.

hTtps://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tsx-hits-one-week-closing-low-dragged-down-by-energy-stocks-2021-11-19/

hTtps://www.reuters.com/business/canadian-shippers-find-few-easy-alternatives-grain-oil-cut-off-by-flood-2021-11-17/

Cash Card,
Why reduce the float if they have just increased it by 30%.
Did you watch the proactive video. Both Majid and Graham were well and truly bruised following the questions thrown at them. Even the lady presenter had a wry smile at some of the questions which she hadn't asked or afraid to.

tnorstrom

To grow the company we need to bring Hydrocarbons to the market. To do that, we need CapEx to fund the drills. That is our lifeblood, that is what the company does. There are other reasons why the sp is weak. We should look at the threat of US shale, producing both WTI and associated gas; their production is increasing week by week, seeking to hedge at high prices. There are also two majors increasing their Permian production next year. We had AECO gas before the Oil Sands. It was the US shale associated gas that destroyed the price structure of our gas. (de ja vu?) We are also at a disadvantage with the US concerning LPG as we will have to wait for the Shell LPG facility to open in 2004. They say oil will be over supplied by 2022 or even earlier, if Iran legally re-enters the market, How will Opec+ react? It is also evident that costs for ESG will reduce our profit. We are using CapEx for electrification of pumpjacks; new pipelines to eliminate trucking. We also know that rather than grow organically, they chose to increase the share float by 33%. We have a CEO who's greed prevents him from subscribing to any risk. We have future known and unknown costs, such as the Trudeau incremental carbon taxes. He will almost certainly seek to align himself with the actions of Biden . There are two recent additions to the Trudeau cabinet, including one with 20 years experience within Greenpeace .
Electrification of the pumpjacks to reduce methane emissions will make a big difference; some saying a 40% reduction in escaping gas, and is Alberta wide.
We need to get COP26 out the way and see what Trudeau has to throw at us?

Nuttal? No idea of who he is and not interested!!!
Obviously he would rather have more FCF than invest for growth.

Serenity success depends on oil being to the west. I am assuming the first drill would be there and other drills would be contingent on that drill???
I am also assuming i3 will have to pay the lions share of that risk! How many Pi's have waited for a drill to come in and been hammered when 25% is knocked off the sp because it was a ducks egg? Depending on how it's funded how/when will the company recover? If it's a loan that is used, it will be the Canadian Cash Flow that is funding it. The risk isn't worth it!
If there is a need for CapEx why are their discussions on share buy backs?
Shareholders funds are used to grow the company. If the company finds less of a need for those funds they may well return those funds to shareholders.

How much cash flow from Canada will they have to put up for the Serenity appraisal, or will they borrow? Of course they will.
i3's current minimum programme for the appraisal drilling consists of two appraisal wells on Serenity plus a sidetrack on each well, contingent on drilling outcomes, at a total expected gross cost of approximately US$33 million. i3's words not mine!
Expecting Borgland Dolphin as one of the partners and...............?

hTtps://boereport.com/2021/10/25/canada-boosts-u-s-natgas-exports-drills-more-as-global-prices-surge/

My only concerns ; we keep costs under control.
hTtps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/10/22/canadian-light-oil-demand-jumps-as-refiners-avoid-gas-dependence

Why would they buy back shares? We have assets in the ground that need to be monetised. To do that we need Capital to be expended that will produce Operating Cash Flow. This would provide Working Capital. They diluted all shareholders by 30%
in order to increase the Cash Flow of the company in the future. I don't agree with the way its been done but we have over 8000 bopd that will increase our Cash Flow . The market is not taking this into account. Yet!

T, Norstrom
"and they are generating an additional $3m - $4m in free cash flow per month from the closing date. They have pots of money for developments / workovers."
YOU DON'T KNOW THAT ITS FCF. The proper term is cash flow, I use that word because we don't even know if its OCF. FCF is what i3 choose you to have. Debts are paid with FCF so why is the LN debt not being paid off. How much have you factored in for CAPeX? All work on drilling is CapeX. Where does that come from or how much FCF does it leave? So obviously you must know how much Capital will be expended in the future; has Majid been privy to your ear? Leaving out what we already know, Clearwater, Cardium, Montney, what can you tell us.? What about the overlapping assets. These may well add to Operating Cash flow but until we know our Capital Outflow we don't know what our FCF will be! Yes! We don't have enough money to do what should be doing. Majid gave away part of the company because it was cheaper to buy production than drill; he never took into account what 363 mln new shares would do to the sp of a small company.
I've always been bullish on Canada or I wouldn't be here. I made the case with Graham that John Festival should be the autonomous CEO of the WCSB along time ago. I'm against Majid as besides his history, he presents things as tho' others have failed to carry out simple fundamentals. He doesn't have the honesty to be a CEO like I do .
Yes been trading since 79, Scary eh! For the most part I only buy shares where follow up action can be taking if and when the inevitable happens. I do alright! Scary Eh!
I asked Graham when we would have a RCF; unusual for him, he never replied. That means he agrees with me that our NWC is not enough.

"Looks liked we've picked up a field crew with the assets so there should be pretty quick action on these potential 80 quick workover / reactivations they have spoken about."
They do not have the money. Get an education!!

"You worked out the FCF last time and found their was less than expected or did you work it out wrong?"
"i'm cringing with embarrassment with your obvious lack of knowledge."
It really touched a nerve didn't it . What a pathetic ramper!
" What a croc of fu_king **** - " What does that mean, It's a vocabulary I haven't come across?
My trading knowledge allows me to confidently hedge my positions if they go against me. Still here since 1979.

It also include debt to FCF ratios , thats a ridiculous comparison. Nothing but an almighty ramp. We are getting house brokers estimates which should be taken with a pinch of salt. I posted the debt deal because this is what took place , not an opinion.
You worked out the FCF last time and found their was less than expected or did you work it out wrong?